INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ The main equity index of Israel ($TA35) has appreciated 75.8% in 666 days since October 8th. In Dollar terms, itโ€™s almost double at 98.16%. It has largely been a relentless climb for the Israeli market (it did fall a little over 5% during the short-lived ceasefire this winter) since the pager bombings.

Looking at the rate of change (2nd chart, vertical timeline markers identical to above), there are 3 major positive thrusts (ROC > 10):

(1) in the 3rd-6th weeks of the conflict;
(2) during the anti-humanitarian blockade in March-May of this year, after the dubious โ€œceasefireโ€ shattered; and
(3) after the June attack on Iran.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ The main equity index of Israel ($TA35) has appreciated 75.8% in 666 days since October 8th. In Dollar terms, itโ€™s almost double at 98.16%. It has largely been a relentless climb for the Israeli market (it did fall a little over 5% during the short-livedโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The TA-35 Index ($TA35) is up about 5bp shy of 37% on the S&P 500 ($SPX) since October 8th, in dollar terms.

Since the pager bombing, which came just before the low in the market, it is up 58.85%, again in dollars.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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Top Projects by Fully Diluted Market Cap launched in July

๐Ÿ’ต CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ต
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The only S&P 500 sector to appreciate in price last week was Utilities ($XLU). ๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Utilities ($XLU) is now leading all other S&P 500 sectors on the year.

Bad omen?

โšก๏ธ CHART WATCH โšก๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Where Americans Are
Struggling Financially

๐Ÿ—ฝ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ—ฝ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Utilities ($XLU) is now leading all other S&P 500 sectors on the year. Bad omen? โšก๏ธ CHART WATCH โšก๏ธ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ S&P 500 Sector-Level Change in Q325 EPS (June 30 to July 31)

6 of 11 did increase their EPS.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Asset managers seemed to have missed the boat this timeโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ—ƒ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ—ƒ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Gold miners ($GDX) are back beneath the bold horizontal resistance in pre-market, but after a sideways slide back to dynamic support, theyโ€™re flirting with a breakout againโ€ฆ

โ› CHART WATCH โ›
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Analysts became exceedingly bearish about earnings in the second half of last year through the Liberation Day fallout this Aprilโ€ฆ

However, by the end of April, they had revised Q1 earnings way up, and something similar seems to be happening now as Q2 has just completed.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Aggregate U.S. tariff collections are way up, and China is paying the largest sum of any single country.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Index of Consumer Sentiment Chart Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Consumer Sentiment (UMich) by Political Affiliation (2012-2025)

As anyone who knows the years of American elections can see, itโ€™s a bit of a partisan indicator. I prefer to go straight to the independents, who are a more useful indicator of actual popular sentiment than the two camps.

๐Ÿ”– CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ›’
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lululemon ($LULU) is having a bad timeโ€ฆ

Itโ€™s trading at its lowest forward P/E & EV/EBIT in decade, and its drawdown has reached 61.58%.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The top 0.1% of U.S. households is doing quite well. Follow Chart Watch
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ American household debt has reached 18.39 trillion dollars. Broken down by category:

โ€ข Mortgages 12.94T
โ€ข Auto Loans 1.66T
โ€ข Student Loans 1.64T
โ€ข Credit Cards 1.21T
โ€ข HELOC 0.41T
โ€ข Other 0.54T

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ The 10 most air polluted countriesโ€ฆ

โ€ข breathing Delhi air = smoking 10-15 cigarettes a day

โ€ข air pollution causes 7 MILLION deaths annually

โ€ข 68% of those are from heart disease & stroke


๐Ÿ’ญ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ญ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ The U.S. Goods Trade Deficit with 3 Major World Economies

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $9.38 billion in June, the smallest on record, after falling to $13.97 billion in May. Exports surged 45.4% (-16.6% y/y) following a 19.9% May slump, while imports fell 6.9% (-45.6% y/y) on top of a 26.3% May plunge.

The goods trade deficit with the European Union narrowed markedly to $9.52 billion in June, the smallest since June 2013, after widening to $22.54 billion in May, with exports up 6.8% (16.6% y/y) and imports down 19.2% (-8.2% y/y).

The trade shortfall with Japan narrowed marginally to $5.72 billion in June, the smallest since March, from $5.77 billion in the previous month, reflecting declines of 3.4% (-7.5% y/y) in exports and 2.3% (-0.4% y/y) in imports.


๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Unemployment Rate in Tennessee & California ๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Regional disparities in unemployment & wage growth, displayed via a selection of varying metro areas.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ A second day of the U.S. treasury yield curve flattening.

๐Ÿ”ฃ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ฃ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Insider buying has been drying up.

Itโ€™s the most buys trailed sales in a yearโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Atlanta Fedโ€™s GDPNow now projects 2.5% GDP.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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