INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The CPI markets on Kalshi & Polymarket are predicting 0.2% MoM inflation for June. There is support for and outside forecasts of 0.3%, however. We will know at 8:30AM. Mayโ€™s number was 0.1%. This is likely to impact the policy rate debate. Many peopleโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ We came in at 0.3% MoM on the CPI. Core CPI MoM at 0.2%.

Thatโ€™s Wall Street consensus for MoM CPI. Core CPIโ€™s 0.2% was under. YoY CPI came in 0.1 hot at 2.7%. YoY Core CPI also came in under at 2.9% instead of 3%.

More on this laterโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Breakdown of YoY & MoM change in CPIโ€™s select categoriesโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ An array of CPI chartsโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Empire State Manufacturing: General Business Conditions

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ I said it would bounce soon.

The Dollar Index futures broke through the 20-day average (which it hasnโ€™t closed over since May), and the 9-day is golden crossing the 20-day right now.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japanโ€™s population size is going in the wrong directionโ€ฆ

๐ŸŽŒ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŽŒ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€œInvestor Credit tracks the difference between cash held in brokerage accounts and the amount borrowed to buy equities.

A negative value means investors are relying more on debt than cash, increasing their exposure.โ€

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Rate cut expectations tumbled as CPI came inโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต The Yen continues to fall.

๐ŸŽŒ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŽŒ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Rating grocery store brands on price/value over several periods over the past yearโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Big Bad AI Bubble exceeds the Dotcom Bubbleโ€ฆ

โ†—๏ธ CHART WATCH โ†—๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Silver lease rates are climbing (just like platinum about a month ago)โ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Trump had the prediction markets doing cartwheels on Jerome Powellโ€™s job securityโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ˜Ž CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ˜Ž
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Trump had the prediction markets doing cartwheels on Jerome Powellโ€™s job securityโ€ฆ ๐Ÿ˜Ž CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ˜Ž
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Anna Paulina Luna started the chaos by claiming she had heard Powell was on the way out soon.

We saw a serious steepening in rates as a reaction. The long end flew up as the short end plummeted.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Rate cut expectations tumbled as CPI came inโ€ฆ ๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Rate cut expectations jumped as Team Trump started talking replacing the Fed chair again, erasing the decline from CPI yesterdayโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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ETH continues to track higher forward inflation expectationsโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ”น CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”น
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