INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The S&P 500’s Equity Risk Premium falls to 237 basis points.

πŸ“‰ CHART WATCH πŸ“‰
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Public debt, (chronically dubious) CBO projections, and debt ceiling increases…

πŸ“ˆ CHART WATCH πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Citigroup’s ($C) Euphoria-Panic Sentiment Model drifts back into euphoric territory…

πŸ“Š CHART WATCH πŸ“Š
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πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Welfare payments in Germany increase linearly with the number of children in the household.

πŸ“Š CHART WATCH πŸ“Š
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Federal spending and deficits continue to expand, no matter who you vote for.

πŸ“Š CHART WATCH πŸ“Š
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πŸ‡­πŸ‡°πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅πŸ‡°πŸ‡· The East Asian Equity Indices (Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea) performance over the last year.

πŸ“ˆ CHART WATCH πŸ“‰
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Federal Reserve Assets

πŸ“Š CHART WATCH πŸ“Š
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Original Liberation Day Tariffs (%)

πŸ† CHART WATCH πŸ†
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Global Trade Dominance

🌎 CHART WATCH 🌎
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Original Liberation Day Tariffs (%) πŸ† CHART WATCH πŸ†
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Index ($SPX, $NDX, $DIA, $RUT) performance around Trump’s tariff rate & deadline announcement.

πŸ† CHART WATCH πŸ†
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Breakout in solar ($TAN).

It’s the end of a 2.5 year trend, but solar has been in decline since the beginning of 2021.

πŸ•― CHART WATCH πŸ•―
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Cathie Wood’s flagship innovation fund $ARKK has had a bad time since the COVID stimulus bonanza, but it’s now seen outflows for the past nineteen months straight.

The ARK Innovation ETF is up 23.36% YTD (17.14% against $SPX).

πŸ”· CHART WATCH πŸ”·
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πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ The chop continues in German industrial production:

German industrial production rose by a sharp 1.2% in May but only after a 1.6% plunge in April which followed a 2.3% surge in March.


πŸ“‰ CHART WATCH πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί EuroStoxx 600 Cyclicals vs. DΓ©fensives.

πŸ“ˆ CHART WATCH πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ 30-year Gilt yields are pushing resistance again…

πŸ“ˆ CHART WATCH πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ NFIB: Raising Worker Compensation in Past 3 Mths & Average Selling Prices

On the pricing front, the net percent raising their average selling prices rose to 29% last month from 25% in May. It had grown to 32% in February. The percentage planning to raise prices increased to 32% in June, up from a 24% low in July of 2024.

Worker compensation rebounded as a net 33% of respondents lifted compensation during the last three months versus 26% in the last survey. Compensation gains peaked at 50% of firms in January 2022. A lessened net 19% of firms are making plans to raise worker compensation in the next three months, below November’s high of 28%.


πŸ“ˆ CHART WATCH πŸ“‰
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Higher Rate of Buybacks than…well, at least since 2013.

πŸ“ˆ CHART WATCH πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¬ The Global AI Index - Top 10 Countries

βŒ› CHART WATCH βŒ›
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INTELRUNNER
Copper is flirting with a breakout. πŸ₯‰ CHART WATCH πŸ₯‰
Copper ($HG1!) is breaking out.

It’s actually a much longer-term pattern than I initially illustrated.

Here’s a three-month candle chart as well as the weekly from the 4th.

πŸ₯‰ CHART WATCH πŸ₯‰
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