🇬🇧 Opinium poll June 25-27:

REFORM~NI: 30%
LAB-S&D: 25% (+1)
CON~ECR: 17% (-1)
LDEM-RE: 12%
GREENS-G/EFA: 9%
SNP-G/EFA: 2% (-1)
PC-G/EFA: 1%

+/- from two weeks prior.

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🚘 The Porsche-to-Gold Ratio…

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🇺🇸 The S&P 500 ($SPX) has rallied from -18% to a 1 year high within 3 months…

Also, other times this occurred since 1933.

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🇺🇸 There’s no question about it. I’ve been saying this since the pandemic. Leaving the health risks of fast food entirely to the side…

You can get the casual dining takeout faster than a drive-thru during anything but the slowest periods. It will taste better than fast food, they will be less likely to screw the order up, and the pricing is competitive!

👎 CHART WATCH 👎

🇰🇷🇺🇸Auto exports to America are important to the South Korean economy, but the new government in Seoul is still in early stages of negotiation with the Trump Administration.

📈 CHART WATCH 📉

🇪🇺 Capital Gains Tax Rates in Europe

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Supply has begun to eclipse demand…

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🌍 Global Nuclear Investment Doubles

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🇺🇸 Dirty Rotten Congress vs. the S&P 500 ($SPX)

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🌍 Global Equity Valuation Indicators

Small & value are undervalued against large & growth, just like Dotcom, but this time, global equities are undervalued against US equities as well…

📉 CHART WATCH 📉

🇺🇸 The prices of crude oil & natural gas went their own ways…

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $65.71 per barrel (-19.5% y/y) in the week ended June 27 as tensions in the Middle East eased. The decline more than reversed the prior week’s runup to $74.17 per barrel, but remained up from a low $59.04 low in the second week of May 2025

Natural gas prices rose last week to an average $3.30 per mmbtu (31.0% y/y) in the week ended June 27, after increasing to an average $3.08/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022.

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🇺🇸 Cyclical sectors are leading. This is the drawdown from the record high.

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🇺🇸 Change in the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) in the first half of every year since 1986.

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🇺🇸 Volatility: the MOVE Index creeps up while the VIX hangs behind.

Note—defer to the MOVE.

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🇹🇷 Gold in Turkey is mostly in the hands of regular people (who need it to combat relentless inflation).

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🇺🇸 vs. 🇬🇧 since 2008.

Long story short: America grows, the UK shrinks—what’s new?

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 🇩🇪 The German-American spread in ten year debt is creeping north again. As it should.

The idea that the country that just spent ten years being the epicenter of Western deindustrialization and has announced a newfound intention to spend the next ten years remilitarizing (presumably while somehow also becoming net zero) is ridiculous. Bet it drops.

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 Highest monthly growth (2.1%) for the Real M2 Money Supply since early 2022.

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🇪🇺 Risk compression in European credit spreads…

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🇺🇸 Retail price indices by country of origin…

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🇯🇵 Most popular political parties in Japan, according to a poll by Kyodo News.

🎌 CHART WATCH 🎌