🇪🇺🇨🇭 Sahara Dust Covers Europe

A massive Saharan dust plume drifted across Europe this week.

The cloud is mostly high in the atmosphere, but it has hazed views in the Alps, reduced long-distance visibility on ski slopes, and slightly worsened air quality.

Elsewhere in the world, 27 million tons of Saharan dust reach the Amazon each year, and 43 million tons fall into the Caribbean

💭 I N T E L R U N N E R 💭

🇺🇸 Gas Prices Continue to Surge in Trump's Latest Gift to the Electorate

We've already hit the $3.50 target for March 15th. Expect this to continue so long as oil production is going offline and oil infrastructure & storage is blowing up across the Middle East.

Odds are it can't stay that high through the year. Demand destruction will kick in. But it's looking more & more like an expensive summer is upon us.

🛢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🛢

🇺🇸 Stocks Have a Hard Time When Oil Doubles in a Week

Believe it or not.

🛢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🛢

🇺🇸 Home Sales Hit Lowest Level Since 2009

The current figure of 4.09M represents a sharp decline from those pandemic highs, nearly returning to the floor set during the Great Recession.

1️⃣Mortgage Rate Lock-In: Many homeowners who secured 3% rates during the 2021 peak are unwilling to sell and trade up for significantly higher current rates, leading to a "frozen" inventory.

2️⃣Affordability Crisis: The combination of high home prices and elevated interest rates has priced many first-time buyers out of the market. The MBS purchase program would exacerbate this if the Fed weren't rolling off even more. The recession Trump is working on creating may help.

3️⃣Low Inventory: With fewer people listing their homes, the volume of "existing home sales" naturally drops, regardless of buyer demand. Congress is working on this housing bill which could make it better or worse depending on whether a balance is forced upon the warring sides. Capitulation in either direction probably isn't great for varied reasons.

🏚 I N T E L R U N N E R 🏚

🇺🇸 Aberration? Or Will Equity Flows Slow?

The red bar at the end of the timeline shows a significant net outflow. The total equity ETF space had seen almost uninterrupted inflows since mid-2025.

Naturally this a product of the war breaking out.

The only other notable period of hesitance occurred in April/May 2025 following a market correction. The current outflow is striking because it follows a period of particularly high and consistent activity in late 2025 and early 2026.

While total equity flows were negative, Energy ETFs saw massive inflows as oil prices went wild over the Strait of Hormuz closure. Similarly, Cybersecurity and Defense ETFs were some of the only green spots in the market that week.

🔺️ I N T E L R U N N E R 🔺️

🇺🇸 Tech's Option-Adjusted Spread Rises Above That of Industrials

The OAS is the risk premium on bonds in those sectors over and above the "risk-free" Treasury rate (never take that term seriously, please).

As the chart title says, this flip is rarely good for growth. It usually signals one of two things (or, as in this case, probably both):

➡️Overextension: Investors are worried that AI-driven tech valuations are a "bubble" and that these companies are taking on too much debt for uncertain returns.

➡️Rotation to "Real" Assets: Investors are fleeing "growth" (Tech) and hiding in "value" (Industrials). In the context of the Iran War, this makes sense—tech is vulnerable to supply chain shocks, while Industrials and Energy become the priority for a war-time or high-inflation economy (war-time now, high-inflation coming—assuming we don't immediately kick off a recession doing this).

By March 25th, if we haven't yet brought this to a close, it's highly likely the first wave of Asian industry declaring force majeure due to energy restrictions will begin. That's Samsung, that's TMSC, that's Mitsubishi Chemical.

And yeah, that's a big problem for the tech industry, which was a little over its skis anyway...

🎛 I N T E L R U N N E R 🎛

🇦🇪 Safe Haven No More? War Rattles the Emirates' Bank Accounts & Sense of Self

The 27% drop in the DFM Real Estate Index over the course of just last week is more than just a market correction; it’s a total repricing of Dubai's status as a "safe haven."

The vertical drop at the start of March coincides with the confirmed drone and missile strikes on UAE soil following the outbreak of the Iran War. When the physical safety of the "safest place on Earth" was compromised, the premium investors were paying for that safety vanished instantly.

You can see the jagged "step" down in the red line from there. DFM regulators actually suspended trading for two days (March 2–3) to prevent a total meltdown. When it reopened, major developers like Emaar Properties & Aldar hit their 5% daily "limit down" almost immediately as everyone rushed for the exit...

While US investors are just starting to see "private credit trouble," the Middle East is facing a liquidity freeze. Reports from this week show that nearly 80% of property deals that were in progress are now on hold.

The steepness of this drop reflects fear that the high-earning expat population will leave. If the lifestyle value of Dubai is threatened by conflict, the demand for $10M+ villas in the Palm Jumeirah or luxury units in the Burj Khalifa drops to near-zero overnight.

🔥 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔥

🇺🇸 Financials Have a Bad Time on Private Credit Stress

The sector is in a sharp decline. It is currently down 13% from its recent peak...

💰 I N T E L R U N N E R 💰

🇺🇸 The Countries That Exported the Most Urea Fertilizer

About 33% of global urea trade and 25% of ammonia pass through this narrow waterway. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, countries like Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia (the red bars) are currently unable to move their product to the global market.

The total volume physically trapped or halted in the Middle East has jumped to nearly 17.5M metric tons.

Most U.S. plants (CF Industries, Nutrien are the best two American producers) are already running at high utilization, and they could perhaps expand by 10-12%. Expanding beyond 10% requires "debottlenecking" projects that take 6–12 months. There's a high likelihood exports are restricted with spring planting season coming up though.

Russia is the world's top exporter (~9M tons). They have been working on a massive joint venture with Indian firms to add 2M tons of new capacity. They could push their existing capability to red line, but as we discussed with wheat, they're having Black Sea problems, and their attempts to route around have been met with Ukrainian terrorism.

More on this later...

🐓 I N T E L R U N N E R 🐓

🇺🇸 Estimated S&P 500 Customer Put Delta Positioning [JPMorgan]

People are short. Very short.

$65-70 billion short.

This is the most bearish positioning in the modern financial era (which I start in September 2019 with that crisis/bailout).

This is a record amount of downside insurance...

🐻 I N T E L R U N N E R 🐻

🇺🇸 Down Goes Skew

Usually, skew drops because people are buying puts and selling calls to fund them. Here, the "Call" side of the skew has flattened entirely.

Investors aren't just hedging; they have completely abandoned the "upside" scenario.

The last chart showed positioning at -$70B. On a normal day, dealers (who are on the other side of those puts) provide liquidity by buying the dip. But at these extreme levels, we hit a "Volatility Trigger." Dealers are forced to sell more futures to remain delta-neutral.

Instead of the "over-hedging" creating a floor, it is creating a downside vacuum.

A lot of those prior situations were remedied by the Fed, but is a supply-chain and energy shock. You can't print oil or open the Strait of Hormuz with a rate cut.

🐻 I N T E L R U N N E R 🐻

🇺🇸 The S&P 500 Sheds $2.1 Trillion Since Outbreak of War

Since the war in Iran began exactly 14 days ago, the index has fallen from its late-February highs near 7,000 down to 6,631.

In terms of market capitalization, that represents a wipeout of approximately $2.1 trillion.

That also means we closed a dollar or two under the 200DMA. If Kuwait shuts down this weekend or if something wild happens in the war, look out...

If not, expect a quick bounce.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 Urea Prices Skyrocketing; Corn Prices Can't Keep Up

That means farmers don't have the revenue to buy enough fertilizer. We saw this in 2021-2 with inflation & Ukraine.

First resort is planting soy beans instead because they require less fertilizer (because they generate their own bacterial version). Second resort is just planting less. That's why this is being called the 2026 Hunger Chokepoint.

Large Brazilian crops and good global yields have conspired to produce yet another global problem. Too much corn means we may have too little food in the near future.

This affects India and, ironically, Brazil itself the most.

🌱 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌱

🌍 Social Media's Optimism of Conflict Ending Ramps Up to End the Week

Mentions of War/Conflict 'Ending' Across Social Media

Eternally duped...

🙏 I N T E L R U N N E R 🙏

🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Casualties in US-Israeli and Iranian attacks

Above are the confirmed casualties across the 12 countries that have been subject to attacks.

Due to the rapidly evolving situation, all figures may change as more information becomes available...

☠️ I N T E L R U N N E R ☠️

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Map of ships' location when struck in the Gulf region since early March...

Mostly attacks in red.

There's nothing to be brave or "have guts" about.

🔽 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔽