🇺🇸 Unemployment Duration Picks Up, Above 2019 Levels

This is the average & median weeks of unemployment length, and the dotted line is the average 2024 value.

The average/median divergence is the key read here. Average weeks unemployed at 25.7 vs. median at 11.1—that’s a massive spread.

It tells you the distribution is heavily right-skewed: most people are finding jobs relatively quickly (median is only modestly above the 2024 baseline), but a growing cohort is being unemployed for very long stretches and pulling the average up hard.

That pattern is classically associated with structural rather than cyclical unemployment. People are being displaced from sectors or skill sets that aren’t coming back.

✍️ I N T E L R U N N E R ✍️

🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Casualties in US-Israeli and Iranian attacks

Above are the confirmed casualties across the 12 countries that have been subject to attacks.

Due to the rapidly evolving situation, all figures may change as more information becomes available...

☠️ I N T E L R U N N E R ☠️

🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Strikes & Retaliation in War for West Asia

This is what the strike situation looks like.

Devastation everywhere. Oil production down, desalination down, obliterated U.S. bases and equipment, the hotels the soldiers hide in, damage all over Israel.

It's a crisis in Iran. Schools, hospitals, obviously all the above ground bases. They hit the oil storage over night. The Iranians say it's "deliberate chemical warfare."

🟢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🟢

🇺🇸 The Seasonality Guys Are, As Always, Undeterred by Reality

Oh, well if past performance did that. By all means, bet the farm...

Not like there's anything else going on.

📆 I N T E L R U N N E R 📆

🇺🇸 Betting on Wheat Quality Outperforms Expectations

Wheat is selling, but Chicago soft is selling 4X as much as KC hard today.

215% move in the spread in a little over 9 hours...still a bit too much parity, but I can understand why people are taking some profits on that.

👩‍🌾 I N T E L R U N N E R 👩‍🌾

🇺🇸 Textbook Market Manipulation Ensues in WTI

After the surge to $119.48 (due OPEC shutdowns & the Hormuz closure), the White House took several steps to manipulate the price down:

🔴The G7 SPR Announcement - A rumor swept the pits that the G7 nations were preparing a massive, coordinated release of 300 to 400 million barrels from Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Even though no oil had actually moved, the "sheer scale of the number" caused algo-traders to dump long positions instantly.

That's a little ridiculous given that's 25-33% of the entire G7 oil reserve and it only relieves the current supply construction for three weeks.

🔴 The "Russian Release" Rumor - Reuters reported that the U.S. was considering easing sanctions on Russian oil to flood the market and offset the Middle Eastern deficit (including waivers which would enable IRGC vessels to transit Russian oil), which is hilarious. This is likely the strongest relief valve and may cap the damage (for now) around $115-120/barrel.

🔴 The Kill Shot - President Trump gave a CBS interview and posted on Truth Social stating that the war was "very complete" and ahead of schedule. That was all it took. Boom—100bps in twenty minutes in the NASDAQ 100.

Of course, he also incoherently ranted about "ultimate victory," taking over Hormuz-adjacent islands, and his Administration has repeatedly refused to rule out both ground incursions & a draft. But very often the market hear what it wants to hear, and Trump knows this.

Will it hold? Doubtful. WTI is up 5% since close today. The war cannot be construed as going well, and eventually reality will have to permeate.

🛢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🛢

🇪🇺🇨🇭 Sahara Dust Covers Europe

A massive Saharan dust plume drifted across Europe this week.

The cloud is mostly high in the atmosphere, but it has hazed views in the Alps, reduced long-distance visibility on ski slopes, and slightly worsened air quality.

Elsewhere in the world, 27 million tons of Saharan dust reach the Amazon each year, and 43 million tons fall into the Caribbean

💭 I N T E L R U N N E R 💭

🇺🇸 Gas Prices Continue to Surge in Trump's Latest Gift to the Electorate

We've already hit the $3.50 target for March 15th. Expect this to continue so long as oil production is going offline and oil infrastructure & storage is blowing up across the Middle East.

Odds are it can't stay that high through the year. Demand destruction will kick in. But it's looking more & more like an expensive summer is upon us.

🛢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🛢

🇺🇸 Stocks Have a Hard Time When Oil Doubles in a Week

Believe it or not.

🛢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🛢

🇺🇸 Home Sales Hit Lowest Level Since 2009

The current figure of 4.09M represents a sharp decline from those pandemic highs, nearly returning to the floor set during the Great Recession.

1️⃣Mortgage Rate Lock-In: Many homeowners who secured 3% rates during the 2021 peak are unwilling to sell and trade up for significantly higher current rates, leading to a "frozen" inventory.

2️⃣Affordability Crisis: The combination of high home prices and elevated interest rates has priced many first-time buyers out of the market. The MBS purchase program would exacerbate this if the Fed weren't rolling off even more. The recession Trump is working on creating may help.

3️⃣Low Inventory: With fewer people listing their homes, the volume of "existing home sales" naturally drops, regardless of buyer demand. Congress is working on this housing bill which could make it better or worse depending on whether a balance is forced upon the warring sides. Capitulation in either direction probably isn't great for varied reasons.

🏚 I N T E L R U N N E R 🏚

🇺🇸 Aberration? Or Will Equity Flows Slow?

The red bar at the end of the timeline shows a significant net outflow. The total equity ETF space had seen almost uninterrupted inflows since mid-2025.

Naturally this a product of the war breaking out.

The only other notable period of hesitance occurred in April/May 2025 following a market correction. The current outflow is striking because it follows a period of particularly high and consistent activity in late 2025 and early 2026.

While total equity flows were negative, Energy ETFs saw massive inflows as oil prices went wild over the Strait of Hormuz closure. Similarly, Cybersecurity and Defense ETFs were some of the only green spots in the market that week.

🔺️ I N T E L R U N N E R 🔺️

🇺🇸 Tech's Option-Adjusted Spread Rises Above That of Industrials

The OAS is the risk premium on bonds in those sectors over and above the "risk-free" Treasury rate (never take that term seriously, please).

As the chart title says, this flip is rarely good for growth. It usually signals one of two things (or, as in this case, probably both):

➡️Overextension: Investors are worried that AI-driven tech valuations are a "bubble" and that these companies are taking on too much debt for uncertain returns.

➡️Rotation to "Real" Assets: Investors are fleeing "growth" (Tech) and hiding in "value" (Industrials). In the context of the Iran War, this makes sense—tech is vulnerable to supply chain shocks, while Industrials and Energy become the priority for a war-time or high-inflation economy (war-time now, high-inflation coming—assuming we don't immediately kick off a recession doing this).

By March 25th, if we haven't yet brought this to a close, it's highly likely the first wave of Asian industry declaring force majeure due to energy restrictions will begin. That's Samsung, that's TMSC, that's Mitsubishi Chemical.

And yeah, that's a big problem for the tech industry, which was a little over its skis anyway...

🎛 I N T E L R U N N E R 🎛