🇺🇸 US Federal Employment is Falling

Federal Employment has decreased by 327k or 10.86% since January amidst DOGE cuts.

Best employment news we get, but not enough. Don't stop.

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🌎 Second Greatest One-Week Increase in Oil Prices This Century

Oil has only has one greater weekly percent change since the year 2000 (in the year 2000). That would be 2020.

🛢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🛢

🇺🇸 Unemployment Duration Picks Up, Above 2019 Levels

This is the average & median weeks of unemployment length, and the dotted line is the average 2024 value.

The average/median divergence is the key read here. Average weeks unemployed at 25.7 vs. median at 11.1—that’s a massive spread.

It tells you the distribution is heavily right-skewed: most people are finding jobs relatively quickly (median is only modestly above the 2024 baseline), but a growing cohort is being unemployed for very long stretches and pulling the average up hard.

That pattern is classically associated with structural rather than cyclical unemployment. People are being displaced from sectors or skill sets that aren’t coming back.

✍️ I N T E L R U N N E R ✍️

🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Casualties in US-Israeli and Iranian attacks

Above are the confirmed casualties across the 12 countries that have been subject to attacks.

Due to the rapidly evolving situation, all figures may change as more information becomes available...

☠️ I N T E L R U N N E R ☠️

🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Strikes & Retaliation in War for West Asia

This is what the strike situation looks like.

Devastation everywhere. Oil production down, desalination down, obliterated U.S. bases and equipment, the hotels the soldiers hide in, damage all over Israel.

It's a crisis in Iran. Schools, hospitals, obviously all the above ground bases. They hit the oil storage over night. The Iranians say it's "deliberate chemical warfare."

🟢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🟢

🇺🇸 The Seasonality Guys Are, As Always, Undeterred by Reality

Oh, well if past performance did that. By all means, bet the farm...

Not like there's anything else going on.

📆 I N T E L R U N N E R 📆

🇺🇸 Betting on Wheat Quality Outperforms Expectations

Wheat is selling, but Chicago soft is selling 4X as much as KC hard today.

215% move in the spread in a little over 9 hours...still a bit too much parity, but I can understand why people are taking some profits on that.

👩‍🌾 I N T E L R U N N E R 👩‍🌾

🇺🇸 Textbook Market Manipulation Ensues in WTI

After the surge to $119.48 (due OPEC shutdowns & the Hormuz closure), the White House took several steps to manipulate the price down:

🔴The G7 SPR Announcement - A rumor swept the pits that the G7 nations were preparing a massive, coordinated release of 300 to 400 million barrels from Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Even though no oil had actually moved, the "sheer scale of the number" caused algo-traders to dump long positions instantly.

That's a little ridiculous given that's 25-33% of the entire G7 oil reserve and it only relieves the current supply construction for three weeks.

🔴 The "Russian Release" Rumor - Reuters reported that the U.S. was considering easing sanctions on Russian oil to flood the market and offset the Middle Eastern deficit (including waivers which would enable IRGC vessels to transit Russian oil), which is hilarious. This is likely the strongest relief valve and may cap the damage (for now) around $115-120/barrel.

🔴 The Kill Shot - President Trump gave a CBS interview and posted on Truth Social stating that the war was "very complete" and ahead of schedule. That was all it took. Boom—100bps in twenty minutes in the NASDAQ 100.

Of course, he also incoherently ranted about "ultimate victory," taking over Hormuz-adjacent islands, and his Administration has repeatedly refused to rule out both ground incursions & a draft. But very often the market hear what it wants to hear, and Trump knows this.

Will it hold? Doubtful. WTI is up 5% since close today. The war cannot be construed as going well, and eventually reality will have to permeate.

🛢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🛢

🇪🇺🇨🇭 Sahara Dust Covers Europe

A massive Saharan dust plume drifted across Europe this week.

The cloud is mostly high in the atmosphere, but it has hazed views in the Alps, reduced long-distance visibility on ski slopes, and slightly worsened air quality.

Elsewhere in the world, 27 million tons of Saharan dust reach the Amazon each year, and 43 million tons fall into the Caribbean

💭 I N T E L R U N N E R 💭