🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Will the Iranian regime fall within the first half of this year? [Polymarket]

We're up to a 42% chance.

Iran is not Libya or Syria. Collapse will require somebody's boots on the ground.

It's clear Israel is attempting to generate that by striking the Iranian government near separatist regions/forces. They would have to seriously degrade their armed forces to enable this route.

Let's hope we aren't leaving American servicemen as sitting ducks all over the place for casus belli reasons, but it wouldn't be the first time...

🇮🇷 I N T E L R U N N E R 🇮🇷

🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Casualties in US-Israeli and Iranian attacks

Above are the confirmed casualties across the 12 countries that have been subject to attacks.

Due to the rapidly evolving situation, all figures may change as more information becomes available...

☠️ I N T E L R U N N E R ☠️

🇺🇸 AAII Asset Allocation Survey (February 2026)

Stocks are hovering around 70%, as they do outside crises. Being in the higher end of its range, we have elevated equity exposure.

Bond allocation is the highest since November 2023. An 18% allocation suggests a rotation back into fixed income as the correction in yields tires.

Investors are relatively cash-poor. 14% is the lowest since the November 2021 top (after the COVID bonanza).

It's a pretty risk-on environment and retail is damn near all-in. You know what probably means...

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 The World’s Top Startup Hubs (Global Startup Ecosystem Index 2025)

🥇 U.S. 🇺🇸 254.1
The undisputed giant. Its score is nearly 4x higher than the #2 country, reflecting unmatched venture capital, startup density, and accelerator infrastructure. Silicon Valley alone would dwarf most nations.

🥈 UK 🇬🇧 70.7
A distant but solid second. London anchors a strong fintech and deep-tech scene, benefiting from world-class universities and access to European talent.

🥉 Israel 🇮🇱 62.2
Punches massively above its weight. Known as the “Startup Nation,” it has more Nasdaq-listed companies per capita than anywhere else, with particular strength in cybersecurity and biotech.

4. Singapore 🇸🇬 54.7
Southeast Asia’s gateway hub. Pro-business regulation, low taxes, and strategic geography make it the launchpad of choice for Asia-Pacific expansion.

5. Canada 🇨🇦 45.4
Buoyed by Toronto and Vancouver, with strong AI research clusters and immigration-friendly policies attracting global talent.

6–10 are all European, reflecting the continent’s mature but more fragmented ecosystem:

Sweden 🇸🇪 (35.3) — Spotify, Klarna country; outsized output for its size
Germany 🇩🇪 (33.2) — Industrial-tech and B2B strength
France 🇫🇷 (32.4) — La French Tech initiative has driven real growth
Switzerland 🇨🇭 (31.7) — Fintech and biotech, bolstered by Zurich’s finance sector
The Netherlands 🇳🇱 (30.9) — Amsterdam’s strong logistics and startup infrastructure round out the list​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

🟥 I N T E L R U N N E R 🟥

🌎 Global Broad Money Supply Reaches $144 Trillion in December 2025

You will notice the plateau in 2008 around $57-58 trillion. You'll notice the steep ascent to $100 trillion 2020.

You can see from that point forward, the ascent steepened. There was some choppiness after that, but the 2025 Dollar devaluation has the global money supply pushing past $144 trillion.

That's twice the speed (and then some) of 2008-2020—did you notice? Can you feel it? Is it slipping through your fingers faster & faster?

💵 I N T E L R U N N E R 💵

🌎 Global Broad Money Growth Accelerates in 2025 Amid U.S. Dollar Depreciation

➕ 2020-2021: Explosive monetary expansion peaking at 18.7% (pandemic stimulus)
➕ 2022: Sharp deceleration, approaching zero growth
➕ 2023: Brief contraction (negative growth, blue bars) — monetary tightening
➕ 2024-2025: Re-acceleration to 10.4%, driven by "US Dollar Devaluation"
➕ Current growth significantly exceeds the 25-year average of 7.0%.

Every crisis speeds this up. The beast of financialization, sovereign insolvency, and cumulative misallocation over decades of only allowing the briefest of brief corrective phases demands more and more and more debt, or else.

Policymakers intend to deliver.

💵 I N T E L R U N N E R 💵