INTELRUNNER
America rules AI development (and continues to subsidize energy for it), if not adoption. China is the only near competitor: their relevant education is widespread and their models are strong. This is all consistent, but against prior rankings, India has dropped 3 places to #6 (decent talent, weak infrastructure/governance).
Singapore & South Korea fill out the leaders in the worldโhalf of the top tier is Asian. Switzerland is the standout in Europe (notably not in the EU)...but the question remains: is all of this worth it?
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INTELRUNNER
It's technically a tie for third at 10 golds. If preference total medal count, Italy takes third. If you preference number of silvers over number of bronzes, the Netherlands gets third.
Personally, all I care about are gold rankings, and that's tie.
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Large cap value and mid cap growth did alright this week.
Conversely, mid and small cap value had a rough week, and large cap growth did as well.
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INTELRUNNER
If the problem is the houses are too expensive for most people, how is driving prices higher to drive mortgage rates lower intelligent?
The 30Y rate fell to 5.98%, marking the first time it's been under six since 2022.
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INTELRUNNER
8% jump in oil. 1.5% in gold (fluctuating 1-2%). And -1.52% in the 10Y yield.
All of these were highlighted over the past few months here for this reason (and others)...
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INTELRUNNER
The United States and Israel launched what President Donald Trump described as "major combat operations" against Iran on Saturday, bombing multiple locations.
Today has only been an escalation, outside the resumption of negotiationsโwhich says a lot.
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INTELRUNNER
8% jump in oil. 1.5% in gold (fluctuating 1-2%). And -1.52% in the 10Y yield.
Any oil on a ship is great oil on a ship in these conditions.
The spread collapsed briefly. For a while, light & sweet WTI was trading $2.50 over Brent. We've flipped back to $2.75 the other way...
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INTELRUNNER
It's a nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier that serves as a mobile airbase, launching combat, surveillance, and support missions worldwide.
It sails with 3 Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers: the USS Spruance, USS Michael Murphy, and the USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. (who the hell?).
It carries F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, MH-60R/S Seahawks, F-35C Lightning IIs, and a E-2D Hawkeye.
The crew is 5,680 people, it holds 90 aircraft, it's 1,092 feet long, and it goes 35mph.
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INTELRUNNER
8% jump in oil. 1.5% in gold (fluctuating 1-2%). And -1.52% in the 10Y yield.
Lockheed Martin ($LMT) is up 2.56%, $RTX (formerly Raytheon) is up 2.52%, and L3 Harris ($LHX) is up 2.64%...
This suggests markets see this as more than a flash in the pan.
I'll note they've been screaming upward this year. Wonder how much Congress is holding.
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INTELRUNNER
Semiconductors and software have been getting killed...not so hot for auto either.
If you look at $IGV (iShares Software Sector), you'll notice a few things. It's down 31% since late September. It's hanging right above the decade VWAP (not pictured), but right below the 2022 low VWAP.
More importantly, volume came in like a hurricane over the last month. Retail (image 2) has been pouring into software names. Their share of this volume is historically high (97.2 percentile).
Hedge funds, on the other hand, have been riding this thing down for a while on the news about Anthropic's Cowork coming for lots of white-collar jobsโespecially in coding. But hedge funds classically sit in winners until they're vulnerable.
And that's precisely what they're doing with prime book short exposure (image 3) up to 3.7%โanother high in recent history. It's almost the same chart, isn't it? The more retail buys, the more hedgies sell.
That's a short squeeze in the making...
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INTELRUNNER
The more retail buys, the more hedgies sell.
That's a short squeeze in the making...
That's a short squeeze in the making...
First, I'll note that $IGV's ratios against the technology sector and the broader market are both turning around. Momentum on this down trend is stalling.
Critically, the fund flows were brutally negative for quite some time, but at the start of February, something changed. In the past two days alone, there were $1.5B in inflows.
That's the clue. Someone else has been buying all month, and that's given away by the fact that there have been several billion in creations over the last 3-4 weeks. Share count is up 15% over the last weekโthat's building size.
That means institutions started buying the dip this month and they haven't quit. $80 is holding up as support. If $IGV can retake $85, that'll be great support with a huge amount of call options there both 1 month and 6 months out ($7 million across both terms).
You can wait for that $85 if you're conservatively inclined. If you're convinced and feeling aggressive, slide in with the market makers & me.
This is anything but financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
Today has only been an escalation, outside the resumption of negotiationsโwhich says a lot.
We're up to a 42% chance.
Iran is not Libya or Syria. Collapse will require somebody's boots on the ground.
It's clear Israel is attempting to generate that by striking the Iranian government near separatist regions/forces. They would have to seriously degrade their armed forces to enable this route.
Let's hope we aren't leaving American servicemen as sitting ducks all over the place for casus belli reasons, but it wouldn't be the first time...
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๐1
INTELRUNNER
Above are the confirmed casualties across the 12 countries that have been subject to attacks.
Due to the rapidly evolving situation, all figures may change as more information becomes available...
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