Restaurants & fast food in blue, cafes & bakeries in orange, and bars & pubs in pink for Barcelona, Berlin, Budapest, Buenos Aires, Dubai, Hong Kong, Krakรณw, Lisbon, London, and Milan...
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Hilarious.
Not sure I would've went with the publication with a 26.7% Rothschild family ownership stake, even if it is on sale since late last year.
You know, since they're so well-represented in the breaking Epstein and Wexner stories...
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INTELRUNNER
These are the states where road blocks were reported on Sunday.
Largely not happening in Sinaloa territory. The early hypothesis would be a leadership struggle among CJNG (after the assassination of their leader by the fรฉdรฉrales), but maybe it's become something more...
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INTELRUNNER
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INTELRUNNER
Both metrics have increased sharply since the 2021-2022 lows (when massive effusions of new money rendered shorting perilous). The 90th percentile stock is up to 11%, while the median stock is only 2.7%.
The spread between heavily shorted & median stocks having compressed, we can interpret this as likely portfolio hedging amid concerns over AI's eradication of per-seat software revenue, AI's failure to produce much of its own revenue, and the broader trend against technology and financials.
It's calculated risk reduction as we head toward a decisive summer (Q2 earnings, late cycle signals, additional seasonal rate uncertainty, and historical volatility).
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INTELRUNNER
This is classic early bottom stuff. Doesn't mean we can't have additional 20-30% drawbacks from here.
The down trend relents for a moment. We've broken through the first resistance, the down trend line, and the VWAP off the low from the first week of February.
What you want to watch now is what it does between $70.5-$71.5K.
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INTELRUNNER
America rules AI development (and continues to subsidize energy for it), if not adoption. China is the only near competitor: their relevant education is widespread and their models are strong. This is all consistent, but against prior rankings, India has dropped 3 places to #6 (decent talent, weak infrastructure/governance).
Singapore & South Korea fill out the leaders in the worldโhalf of the top tier is Asian. Switzerland is the standout in Europe (notably not in the EU)...but the question remains: is all of this worth it?
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INTELRUNNER
It's technically a tie for third at 10 golds. If preference total medal count, Italy takes third. If you preference number of silvers over number of bronzes, the Netherlands gets third.
Personally, all I care about are gold rankings, and that's tie.
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Large cap value and mid cap growth did alright this week.
Conversely, mid and small cap value had a rough week, and large cap growth did as well.
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INTELRUNNER
If the problem is the houses are too expensive for most people, how is driving prices higher to drive mortgage rates lower intelligent?
The 30Y rate fell to 5.98%, marking the first time it's been under six since 2022.
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INTELRUNNER
8% jump in oil. 1.5% in gold (fluctuating 1-2%). And -1.52% in the 10Y yield.
All of these were highlighted over the past few months here for this reason (and others)...
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INTELRUNNER
The United States and Israel launched what President Donald Trump described as "major combat operations" against Iran on Saturday, bombing multiple locations.
Today has only been an escalation, outside the resumption of negotiationsโwhich says a lot.
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INTELRUNNER
8% jump in oil. 1.5% in gold (fluctuating 1-2%). And -1.52% in the 10Y yield.
Any oil on a ship is great oil on a ship in these conditions.
The spread collapsed briefly. For a while, light & sweet WTI was trading $2.50 over Brent. We've flipped back to $2.75 the other way...
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INTELRUNNER
It's a nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier that serves as a mobile airbase, launching combat, surveillance, and support missions worldwide.
It sails with 3 Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers: the USS Spruance, USS Michael Murphy, and the USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. (who the hell?).
It carries F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, MH-60R/S Seahawks, F-35C Lightning IIs, and a E-2D Hawkeye.
The crew is 5,680 people, it holds 90 aircraft, it's 1,092 feet long, and it goes 35mph.
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INTELRUNNER
8% jump in oil. 1.5% in gold (fluctuating 1-2%). And -1.52% in the 10Y yield.
Lockheed Martin ($LMT) is up 2.56%, $RTX (formerly Raytheon) is up 2.52%, and L3 Harris ($LHX) is up 2.64%...
This suggests markets see this as more than a flash in the pan.
I'll note they've been screaming upward this year. Wonder how much Congress is holding.
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INTELRUNNER
Semiconductors and software have been getting killed...not so hot for auto either.
If you look at $IGV (iShares Software Sector), you'll notice a few things. It's down 31% since late September. It's hanging right above the decade VWAP (not pictured), but right below the 2022 low VWAP.
More importantly, volume came in like a hurricane over the last month. Retail (image 2) has been pouring into software names. Their share of this volume is historically high (97.2 percentile).
Hedge funds, on the other hand, have been riding this thing down for a while on the news about Anthropic's Cowork coming for lots of white-collar jobsโespecially in coding. But hedge funds classically sit in winners until they're vulnerable.
And that's precisely what they're doing with prime book short exposure (image 3) up to 3.7%โanother high in recent history. It's almost the same chart, isn't it? The more retail buys, the more hedgies sell.
That's a short squeeze in the making...
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