INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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๐ŸŒŽ Looking for a night out?

Restaurants & fast food in blue, cafes & bakeries in orange, and bars & pubs in pink for Barcelona, Berlin, Budapest, Buenos Aires, Dubai, Hong Kong, Krakรณw, Lisbon, London, and Milan...

๐Ÿบ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿด
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๐ŸŒŽ Jmail is working with the Economist to produce these neat little Epstein Files graphics.

Hilarious.

Not sure I would've went with the publication with a 26.7% Rothschild family ownership stake, even if it is on sale since late last year.

You know, since they're so well-represented in the breaking Epstein and Wexner stories...

๐Ÿ”ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ป
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Strait of Hormuz: Iran temporarily closes key route for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Where Violence Has Flared In Mexico

These are the states where road blocks were reported on Sunday.

Largely not happening in Sinaloa territory. The early hypothesis would be a leadership struggle among CJNG (after the assassination of their leader by the fรฉdรฉrales), but maybe it's become something more...

๐Ÿ”ซ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ซ
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๐ŸŒŽ The 50 Most Populous Cities in Africa
๐ŸŒ Primary language of instruction in medical education...

๐ŸŒ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŒ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The short interest on the Technology sector keeps rising.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as a Percent of Market Cap

Both metrics have increased sharply since the 2021-2022 lows (when massive effusions of new money rendered shorting perilous). The 90th percentile stock is up to 11%, while the median stock is only 2.7%.

The spread between heavily shorted & median stocks having compressed, we can interpret this as likely portfolio hedging amid concerns over AI's eradication of per-seat software revenue, AI's failure to produce much of its own revenue, and the broader trend against technology and financials.

It's calculated risk reduction as we head toward a decisive summer (Q2 earnings, late cycle signals, additional seasonal rate uncertainty, and historical volatility).

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ’Ž Bitcoin's Supply in Profit Drops to 55%

This is classic early bottom stuff. Doesn't mean we can't have additional 20-30% drawbacks from here.
๐Ÿช™ Bitcoin is up 7.37% today with 3.5 hours remaining in the trading day.

The down trend relents for a moment. We've broken through the first resistance, the down trend line, and the VWAP off the low from the first week of February.

What you want to watch now is what it does between $70.5-$71.5K.

๐Ÿ•ฏ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ•ฏ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท Chatbot Accuracy by Model & Rates of Errors
๐Ÿ˜€ The 2026 Global Al Brain Race Report โ€“ Ranking The Top 30+ Countries Shaping The Next Generation of Al Leaders

๐ŸŸกThe U.S.A. ranks #1 with a final score of 82 cut of 100, leading in R&D, economic integration, and infrastructure, and supported by 26 top Al universities with a strong global average score.

๐ŸŸกChina has over 4x as many top Al universities as the United States. While the U.S. ranks #1 overall, China has 107 top Al universities compared to 26 in the U.S.

๐ŸŸกThe UK ranks 5th with a final score of 33, less than half of the U.S. (82) and far behind China (59), highlighting the clear dominance of the two global Al superpowers.

๐ŸŸกOnly one EU country ranks in the top 10. Germany places #10 with a final score of 28, well behind the U.S. (82) and China (59), highlighting Europe's widening Al competitiveness gap.

America rules AI development (and continues to subsidize energy for it), if not adoption. China is the only near competitor: their relevant education is widespread and their models are strong. This is all consistent, but against prior rankings, India has dropped 3 places to #6 (decent talent, weak infrastructure/governance).

Singapore & South Korea fill out the leaders in the worldโ€”half of the top tier is Asian. Switzerland is the standout in Europe (notably not in the EU)...but the question remains: is all of this worth it?

๐Ÿ”ฅ I N T E L R U N N E R โšก๏ธ
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๐ŸŒ Number of medal events during Olympic Winter Games
๐ŸŒ The Final Medal Count at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan

๐Ÿฅ‰ Italy ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น 10 gold, 6 silver, 14 bronze

๐Ÿฅ‰ The Netherlands ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ 10 gold, 7 silver, 3 bronze

๐Ÿฅˆ United States of America ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 12 gold, 12 silver, 9 bronze

๐Ÿฅ‡ Norway ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด 18 gold, 12 silver, 11 bronze

It's technically a tie for third at 10 golds. If preference total medal count, Italy takes third. If you preference number of silvers over number of bronzes, the Netherlands gets third.

Personally, all I care about are gold rankings, and that's tie.

โ›ธ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Equity Factors This Past Week

Large cap value and mid cap growth did alright this week.

Conversely, mid and small cap value had a rough week, and large cap growth did as well.

๐ŸŸฅ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŸฅ
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INTELRUNNER
If the problem is the houses are too expensive for most people, how is driving prices higher to drive mortgage rates lower intelligent?
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S. Average 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage

The 30Y rate fell to 5.98%, marking the first time it's been under six since 2022.

๐Ÿ  I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ 
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Oil looks like a double bottom.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Quick bids in gold, oil, and treasuries as expected due the festivities in the Middle East.

8%
jump in oil. 1.5% in gold (fluctuating 1-2%). And -1.52% in the 10Y yield.

All of these were highlighted over the past few months here for this reason (and others)...

๐Ÿ›ข I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿฅ‡
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ›‘ 80% of trade originating in the strait goes to Asia (a whole lot to China) and 20% goes to Europe (AKA not an American problem).
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Locations of Bombing on Saturday in Iran...

The United States and Israel launched what President Donald Trump described as "major combat operations" against Iran on Saturday, bombing multiple locations.

Today has only been an escalation, outside the resumption of negotiationsโ€”which says a lot.

โœˆ๏ธ I N T E L R U N N E R โœˆ๏ธ
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INTELRUNNER
8% jump in oil. 1.5% in gold (fluctuating 1-2%). And -1.52% in the 10Y yield.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Brent-West Texas Intermediate Spread Evaporates At Open, Recovers

Any oil on a ship is great oil on a ship in these conditions.

The spread collapsed briefly. For a while, light & sweet WTI was trading $2.50 over Brent. We've flipped back to $2.75 the other way...

๐Ÿ›ข I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ›ข
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Locations of Bombing on Saturday in Iran...
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USS Abraham Lincoln

It's a nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier that serves as a mobile airbase, launching combat, surveillance, and support missions worldwide.

It sails with 3 Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers: the USS Spruance, USS Michael Murphy, and the USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. (who the hell?).

It carries F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, MH-60R/S Seahawks, F-35C Lightning IIs, and a E-2D Hawkeye.

The crew is 5,680 people, it holds 90 aircraft, it's 1,092 feet long, and it goes 35mph.

๐Ÿ›ณ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ›ณ
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INTELRUNNER
8% jump in oil. 1.5% in gold (fluctuating 1-2%). And -1.52% in the 10Y yield.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The major defense contractors are up, of course.

Lockheed Martin ($LMT) is up 2.56%, $RTX (formerly Raytheon) is up 2.52%, and L3 Harris ($LHX) is up 2.64%...

This suggests markets see this as more than a flash in the pan.

I'll note they've been screaming upward this year. Wonder how much Congress is holding.

๐Ÿ›ต I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ›ต
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Semiconductors and software have been getting killed...not so hot for auto either.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Software Gambit (Part 1)

If you look at
$IGV (iShares Software Sector), you'll notice a few things. It's down 31% since late September. It's hanging right above the decade VWAP (not pictured), but right below the 2022 low VWAP.

More importantly, volume came in like a hurricane over the last month. Retail (image 2) has been pouring into software names. Their share of this volume is historically high (97.2 percentile).

Hedge funds, on the other hand, have been riding this thing down for a while on the news about Anthropic's Cowork coming for lots of white-collar jobsโ€”especially in coding. But hedge funds classically sit in winners until they're vulnerable.

And that's precisely what they're doing with prime book short exposure (image 3) up to 3.7%โ€”another high in recent history. It's almost the same chart, isn't it? The more retail buys, the more hedgies sell.

That's a short squeeze in the making...

๐Ÿ’ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ–Œ
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