💎 Bitcoin's Supply in Profit Drops to 55%

This is classic early bottom stuff. Doesn't mean we can't have additional 20-30% drawbacks from here.

We absolutely could. Here are the 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns from the other four times we've reached this point:

January 14th, 2015
3M: +21%, 6M: +61%, 12M: +136%

December 15th, 2018
3M: +23%, 6M: +159%, 12M: +123%

March 13th, 2020
3M: +64%, 6M: +81%, 12M: +985%

November 21st, 2022
3M: +54%, 6M: +72%, 12M: +127%

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey shows bears outnumbering bulls for the first time since Thanksgiving.

The bulls are at 34.5 and the bears are reading 36.9...

🐻 I N T E L R U N N E R 🐂

🇺🇸 S&P 500 Super Sectors: Earnings Share

Tech's earnings share has more than doubled from around 22% in the 00s to 45% today. The post-2010 acceleration reflects the years spent wandering the ZIRP desert, and the acceleration post-2020 is the semiconductor boom.

Traditional Cyclicals peaked at 55% in 2006-7's much more industrial-financial economy. It crashed during the GFC, slightly recovered, and then declined to 35%.

Defensives have had a steady down trend, falling from 25% to 22% over the period. There are brief spikes during crises when earnings resilience matters. Their earnings are multi-decade lows, reflecting ZIRP's effect on utilities/staples/real estate.

We are now in a rising interest rate cycle and monetary policy is constrained like never before in American history. AI has produced a bifurcation between tech that can and can't survive the new reality, but AI itself is failing to deliver revenues that even remotely correspond to the capital invested.

I will be shocked if this hasn't changed in five years.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 Where American States Rank in the Global Economy

Little baby countries.

It just goes to show the original confederation would've worked just fine in the end if we didn't have so many natural enemies of liberty and sovereignty abroad...

🌎 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌎

🇬🇧 Latest polling out of Great Britain, albeit a little old because I forgot to post this. That said, it's probably representative of a week ago. Restore Britain is born.

I'm guessing things have accelerated since Farage's betrayal, but the UK's population moves slower than I anticipate sometimes. I think some of them may get it right, and in any event, all of this open opposition should be making their current position clear to native British.

Only 5 of Restore Britain's 10% share a week ago was harvested from defection from the Reform Party. The other 5% comes from people who had stopped voting, which is interesting. One wonders what the size of that demographic may be...

Of course the lunatic Greens are ascendant on the left. Conservatives are in shambles—that could be even worse now. Labour was on the ropes before again being tied to Epstein.

It's genuinely difficult to envisage what sort of government would form. It is highly dependent on the voting—more so than usual.

🗳 I N T E L R U N N E R 🗳

🇺🇸 American Stocks Are the 6th Worst Performer Among 45 Major Countries

Definitely one of the worst opening years for America (relative to the world) as well...

We got into the likelihood of this becoming a full-blown mean reversion last Monday.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 Teacher Salaries vs. Home Prices, by State

This is cute, isn't it?

Why would American teachers deserve houses?

I wouldn't give them a cardboard box for their performance since 2019.

And I'd only give them the box for prior to it.

Maybe when the kids can read and add again, we can talk about housing you.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🌎 Jmail is working with the Economist to produce these neat little Epstein Files graphics.

Hilarious.

Not sure I would've went with the publication with a 26.7% Rothschild family ownership stake, even if it is on sale since late last year.

You know, since they're so well-represented in the breaking Epstein and Wexner stories...

🔻 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔻

🇲🇽 Where Violence Has Flared In Mexico

These are the states where road blocks were reported on Sunday.

Largely not happening in Sinaloa territory. The early hypothesis would be a leadership struggle among CJNG (after the assassination of their leader by the fédérales), but maybe it's become something more...

🔫 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔫

🌍 Primary language of instruction in medical education...

🌍 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌍

🇺🇸 S&P 500 Stock Short Interest as a Percent of Market Cap

Both metrics have increased sharply since the 2021-2022 lows (when massive effusions of new money rendered shorting perilous). The 90th percentile stock is up to 11%, while the median stock is only 2.7%.

The spread between heavily shorted & median stocks having compressed, we can interpret this as likely portfolio hedging amid concerns over AI's eradication of per-seat software revenue, AI's failure to produce much of its own revenue, and the broader trend against technology and financials.

It's calculated risk reduction as we head toward a decisive summer (Q2 earnings, late cycle signals, additional seasonal rate uncertainty, and historical volatility).

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈