INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 10-Year Government Bond Yields for America, Japan, and Germany
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Tiny bit more on CPI & payrolls coming up, but let's dive back into markets...

The 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF had its greatest inflows since Liberation Day last week.

As a result, $TLT appreciated 2.9% over the week, rising to its highest point since November. 20Y yields slipped 3.25%.

The slow flight to safety continues to develop. $IEF was up 1.25% itself...

๐Ÿค‘ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿค‘
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INTELRUNNER
We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The World vs. The S&P 500

The FTSE All-World Excluding the U.S. broke out against $SPY from roughly Christmas Eve to Easter last year, rising 20.65%

I believe that could be the initial burst in a new trend. That's why I noted the change in character in the ratio (along with the Dollar threatening to break down) on January 22nd when it was clear the post-Liberation Day consolidation had wrapped up.

$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story. I've been watching this since the City of London's "Sell America" trade fizzled out and backfired, and I was skeptical in the first place.

I noted undervaluation in July (which proceeded to become even more imbalanced through Q3). If I had to guess, this trend will be a little more enduring than the Q12025 pop I mentioned at the outset. I'd wager the next big correction may reset it.

That said, I could see it going on for 2-6 quarters...

This is not financial advice, man. No way, no how.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story.
๐ŸŒ Here are the flows that have already occurred through the 11th of February...

As you can see, profound amounts of money are rotating into the rest of the globeโ€”particularly developed markets.

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
๐ŸŒ The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in February 6th:
๐ŸŒ The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in February 13th:

๐Ÿฅ‰ Japanese Yen ๐Ÿ’ฐ (+2.97%)

๐Ÿฅˆ U.S. Treasuries ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (+3.32%)

๐Ÿฅ‡ Japanese Equities ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต (+4.98%)

๐Ÿ”ฝ Ethereum ๐Ÿ”ท (-5.89%), Magnificent 7 ๐Ÿ (-3.11%), Chinese Equities ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ (-2.14%), Bitcoin ๐Ÿช™ (-2.12%)

๐Ÿ”ผ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ฝ
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๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช The Caracas Stock Exchange fell 45.76% from the recent all-time high (just after Maduro's capture) on the 9th of January through the 28th. It had been up 300% month over month.
๐ŸŒ This is a Latin America-wide poll conducted by the preeminent AtlasIntel in January. In this case, these are the country-by-country approval-disapproval ratings for:

Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military operation that arrested Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, on charges related to drug trafficking?

Who knew the Caribbean was so excited to have the U.S. Navy around? Mexico and Brazil (and Latinos on American territory) were always going to have a large number of haters.

It's interesting to see approve win the day across the board.

๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช
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INTELRUNNER
Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ This is a historic high for the Labor Force Participation Rate.

We're reaching levels we haven't seen since the Dotcom peak.

๐Ÿ›  I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ› 
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Stock Market: Friday Performance by Sector Utilities & Real Estate looked solid. Industrials, Healthcare, Staples, and Energy were mostly up. Technology, Communication and to a lesser degree, Financials and Discretionary, continue to struggle. ๐ŸŸข I Nโ€ฆ
Media is too big
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Stock Market: Tuesday Performance by Sector

Financials came to life, and Real Estate is looking good as well. Industrials were solid.

Health Care, Technology, and Discretionary were mixed while Communication was relatively flat.

Staples, Materials, and Utilities mostly showed weakness. Energy was in the red, but not too strongly.

๐Ÿ”ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ป
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๐ŸŒ Consensus GDP Forecast for 2026, 6-Month Change (in percentage points)...

Taiwan is booming from the AI race.

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ›‘Gavin Newsom 36%
๐Ÿ›‘Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11%
๐Ÿ›‘Pete Buttigieg 6%
๐Ÿ›‘Wes Moore 5%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Polymarket odds for the 2028 Democratic Primary (with 5-month delta in brackets):

๐Ÿ›‘Gavin Newsom 27.3% [-8.7pp]
๐Ÿ›‘Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.5% [-2.5]
๐Ÿ›‘Kamala Harris 5.8% [+1.8]
๐Ÿ›‘Josh Shapiro 4.5% [+0.5]
๐Ÿ›‘Jon Ossoff 4% [0]
๐Ÿ›‘Pete Buttigieg 4% [-2]
๐Ÿ›‘Andy Beshear 3%
๐Ÿ›‘Wes Moore 2% [-3]
๐Ÿ›‘Gretchen Whitmer 2% [-2]

It is quite obvious that Newsom, AOC, and Whitmer all did damage to their presidential prospects in Munich. I halfway think Kamala got the boost just from not being them.

That 8.7% drop for Newsom has to hurt. He's at his lowest point since August.

The caliber of these politicians is in free fall...

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Stock Market: Tuesday Performance by Sector
Media is too big
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Stock Market: Wednesday Performance by Sector

Energy enjoyed a dominating position once again (+1.92%).

Tech and Discretionary bounced back today, while Materials and Financials enjoyed majority strength.

Industrials, Health Care, and Communication finished with mixed performance. Staples limped.

Utilities continued to struggle (-1.66%), and Real Estate appears to be heading into that anticipated correction (-1.34%), I suspect.

๐Ÿ”ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ป
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The sites of suppressed protests in Iran according to research by the New York Times.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Strait of Hormuz: Iran temporarily closes key route for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade

๐Ÿ›‘ Exports through the strait over the first five months of 2025
(daily average): 19.5 million barrels of crude oil & 50bcm of LNG.

๐Ÿ›‘ Shipments through the strait: 31% of the global seaborne oil trade & 20% of the global LNG trade

๐Ÿ›‘ Saudi Arabia is the largest exporter of oil through the strait, while Qatar leads in LNG exports.

๐Ÿ›‘ 80% of trade originating in the strait goes to Asia (a whole lot to China) and 20% goes to Europe (AKA not an American problem).

๐Ÿ›ข I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ฅ
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INTELRUNNER
The essence of the point is that Bitcoin is very much a part of the macro environment and its cycles are essentially interactions of business & liquidity cycles.
๐Ÿช™ Risk Indicator: the Realized Price, the True Market Mean, and the Short-Term Holder-Realized Price

"In the absence of an unexpected macro catalyst, the $79k True Market Mean and the $54.9k Realized Price are likely to define the primary resistance and support corridor for the mid-term market structure."


๐Ÿค‘ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿค‘
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๐ŸŒŽ How Cyberattackers Gain Access

โ—ฝ๏ธ65% of access is now identity-driven. Hackers are rarely attacking software vulnerabilities compared to credentials. The hacks are against people, not computers, in the main.

โ—ฝ๏ธSocial engineering accounts for 43% of identity-driven attacks. Combined with credential misuse/brute force (21%), human-targeted attacks are 2/3rds of the total.

โ—ฝ๏ธ8% are insider threats; 3% come from IAM misconfigurations. These are internal weaknesses, and they're especially dangerous because they bypass perimeter defenses.

Organizations should treat identity as their primary security control point. They should invest more in properly configured MFA, privileged access management, and user behavior analytics rather than focusing on traditional vulnerability management.

๐Ÿ’ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’ป
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Oof. Good thing we shaved 15.67% off gold's price and 35.5% off silver to end the month.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Gold's 30-day volatility is highest in since 2008.

I wonder if it it's a similar point in the cycle...

๐Ÿช™ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿช™
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Wheat is back to 5 year lows, and corn is not far behind.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ That looks like a bottom in wheat.

It's up 5.7% this week after breaking out of the falling wedge.

That's why it was important to note wheat hitting 503'6 a couple quarters back...

The export program has bolstered wheat fundamentally.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
"In the absence of an unexpected macro catalyst, the $79k True Market Mean and the $54.9k Realized Price are likely to define the primary resistance and support corridor for the mid-term market structure."
๐Ÿ’Ž Bitcoin's Supply in Profit Drops to 55%

This is classic early bottom stuff. Doesn't mean we can't have additional 20-30% drawbacks from here.

We absolutely could. Here are the 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns from the other four times we've reached this point:

January 14th, 2015
3M: +21%, 6M: +61%, 12M: +136%

December 15th, 2018
3M: +23%, 6M: +159%, 12M: +123%

March 13th, 2020
3M: +64%, 6M: +81%, 12M: +985%

November 21st, 2022
3M: +54%, 6M: +72%, 12M: +127%

๐Ÿ“‰ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Bull-Bear Spread Climbs to Cycle Highs It's above 45% for the first time since December 2024. In other words, this is as bullish as it's gotten under Trump. ๐Ÿ‚ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿป
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ This weekโ€™s AAII Sentiment Survey shows bears outnumbering bulls for the first time since Thanksgiving.

The bulls are at 34.5 and the bears are reading 36.9...

๐Ÿป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‚
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