INTELRUNNER
The 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF had its greatest inflows since Liberation Day last week.
As a result, $TLT appreciated 2.9% over the week, rising to its highest point since November. 20Y yields slipped 3.25%.
The slow flight to safety continues to develop. $IEF was up 1.25% itself...
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INTELRUNNER
We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
The FTSE All-World Excluding the U.S. broke out against $SPY from roughly Christmas Eve to Easter last year, rising 20.65%
I believe that could be the initial burst in a new trend. That's why I noted the change in character in the ratio (along with the Dollar threatening to break down) on January 22nd when it was clear the post-Liberation Day consolidation had wrapped up.
$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story. I've been watching this since the City of London's "Sell America" trade fizzled out and backfired, and I was skeptical in the first place.
I noted undervaluation in July (which proceeded to become even more imbalanced through Q3). If I had to guess, this trend will be a little more enduring than the Q12025 pop I mentioned at the outset. I'd wager the next big correction may reset it.
That said, I could see it going on for 2-6 quarters...
This is not financial advice, man. No way, no how.
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INTELRUNNER
$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story.
As you can see, profound amounts of money are rotating into the rest of the globeโparticularly developed markets.
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INTELRUNNER
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INTELRUNNER
Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military operation that arrested Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, on charges related to drug trafficking?
Who knew the Caribbean was so excited to have the U.S. Navy around? Mexico and Brazil (and Latinos on American territory) were always going to have a large number of haters.
It's interesting to see approve win the day across the board.
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INTELRUNNER
Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.
We're reaching levels we haven't seen since the Dotcom peak.
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INTELRUNNER
Media is too big
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Financials came to life, and Real Estate is looking good as well. Industrials were solid.
Health Care, Technology, and Discretionary were mixed while Communication was relatively flat.
Staples, Materials, and Utilities mostly showed weakness. Energy was in the red, but not too strongly.
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Taiwan is booming from the AI race.
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INTELRUNNER
It is quite obvious that Newsom, AOC, and Whitmer all did damage to their presidential prospects in Munich. I halfway think Kamala got the boost just from not being them.
That 8.7% drop for Newsom has to hurt. He's at his lowest point since August.
The caliber of these politicians is in free fall...
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INTELRUNNER
Media is too big
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Energy enjoyed a dominating position once again (+1.92%).
Tech and Discretionary bounced back today, while Materials and Financials enjoyed majority strength.
Industrials, Health Care, and Communication finished with mixed performance. Staples limped.
Utilities continued to struggle (-1.66%), and Real Estate appears to be heading into that anticipated correction (-1.34%), I suspect.
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INTELRUNNER
(daily average): 19.5 million barrels of crude oil & 50bcm of LNG.
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INTELRUNNER
The essence of the point is that Bitcoin is very much a part of the macro environment and its cycles are essentially interactions of business & liquidity cycles.
"In the absence of an unexpected macro catalyst, the $79k True Market Mean and the $54.9k Realized Price are likely to define the primary resistance and support corridor for the mid-term market structure."
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Organizations should treat identity as their primary security control point. They should invest more in properly configured MFA, privileged access management, and user behavior analytics rather than focusing on traditional vulnerability management.
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INTELRUNNER
I wonder if it it's a similar point in the cycle...
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INTELRUNNER
It's up 5.7% this week after breaking out of the falling wedge.
That's why it was important to note wheat hitting 503'6 a couple quarters back...
The export program has bolstered wheat fundamentally.
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INTELRUNNER
"In the absence of an unexpected macro catalyst, the $79k True Market Mean and the $54.9k Realized Price are likely to define the primary resistance and support corridor for the mid-term market structure."
This is classic early bottom stuff. Doesn't mean we can't have additional 20-30% drawbacks from here.
We absolutely could. Here are the 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns from the other four times we've reached this point:
January 14th, 2015
3M: +21%, 6M: +61%, 12M: +136%
December 15th, 2018
3M: +23%, 6M: +159%, 12M: +123%
March 13th, 2020
3M: +64%, 6M: +81%, 12M: +985%
November 21st, 2022
3M: +54%, 6M: +72%, 12M: +127%
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INTELRUNNER
The bulls are at 34.5 and the bears are reading 36.9...
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