INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø About 1 in 3 American women over the age of 60 is on psychiatric medications.
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Percentage of Undergraduate Students Reporting Disabilities at Various One-Time "Elite" Schools

I presume there's a whole lot of peripheral mental disability being counted here.

I also assume it's the exact same population group that fills up Democratic Socialists of America chapters.

Prove me wrong.

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šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Percent of the Workforce That's Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø We have to touch on employment this morning...

Beginning with 2025, which was the worst non-recessionary year for hiring since 2003.


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šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Moving onto January, there were finally some decent jobs numbers. We had been on quite the downward trajectory, which we may or may not be escaping.

Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.

This is the largest increase since the summer of 2020 (when state-sanctioned riots showed everyone just how serious the virus actually was).

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INTELRUNNER
Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø But we have a recurrent problem...

124,000 of the 130,000 jobs added were in education and healthcare.
Sigh. Not exactly a sign of an economy trending in the right direction. Those industries already employ so many busybodies.

Thought Experiment: Is this trade off where we live 10-20 more years with 5 health conditions but spend all of our money clinging to a much depreciated existence really an improvement?

We have to tackle chronic disease or all of this is a little stupid...

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šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø A serious, sustained decline in manufacturing employment since Liberation Day.
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø There were also some mild positives in the latest payrolls reports.

Manufacturing gained 9,000 jobs in durable goods but lost 4,000 in nondurable for a net gain of 5,000. It's still down 0.7% YoY, but it's a start, as we've finally broken the losing streak in this area.

Construction added 33,000 jobs (that's 65,000 over the past 3 months). And professional services gained 34,000 jobs. Both are subject to the business cycle and so represent solid economic news...

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šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡øšŸ‡ÆšŸ‡µšŸ‡©šŸ‡Ŗ 10-Year Government Bond Yields for America, Japan, and Germany
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Tiny bit more on CPI & payrolls coming up, but let's dive back into markets...

The 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF had its greatest inflows since Liberation Day last week.

As a result, $TLT appreciated 2.9% over the week, rising to its highest point since November. 20Y yields slipped 3.25%.

The slow flight to safety continues to develop. $IEF was up 1.25% itself...

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INTELRUNNER
We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø The World vs. The S&P 500

The FTSE All-World Excluding the U.S. broke out against $SPY from roughly Christmas Eve to Easter last year, rising 20.65%

I believe that could be the initial burst in a new trend. That's why I noted the change in character in the ratio (along with the Dollar threatening to break down) on January 22nd when it was clear the post-Liberation Day consolidation had wrapped up.

$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story. I've been watching this since the City of London's "Sell America" trade fizzled out and backfired, and I was skeptical in the first place.

I noted undervaluation in July (which proceeded to become even more imbalanced through Q3). If I had to guess, this trend will be a little more enduring than the Q12025 pop I mentioned at the outset. I'd wager the next big correction may reset it.

That said, I could see it going on for 2-6 quarters...

This is not financial advice, man. No way, no how.

šŸ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R šŸ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story.
šŸŒ Here are the flows that have already occurred through the 11th of February...

As you can see, profound amounts of money are rotating into the rest of the globe—particularly developed markets.

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šŸŒ The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in February 6th:
šŸŒ The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in February 13th:

šŸ„‰ Japanese Yen šŸ’° (+2.97%)

🄈 U.S. Treasuries šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø (+3.32%)

šŸ„‡ Japanese Equities šŸ‡ÆšŸ‡µ (+4.98%)

šŸ”½ Ethereum šŸ”· (-5.89%), Magnificent 7 šŸ (-3.11%), Chinese Equities šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ (-2.14%), Bitcoin šŸŖ™ (-2.12%)

šŸ”¼ I N T E L R U N N E R šŸ”½
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šŸ‡»šŸ‡Ŗ The Caracas Stock Exchange fell 45.76% from the recent all-time high (just after Maduro's capture) on the 9th of January through the 28th. It had been up 300% month over month.
šŸŒ This is a Latin America-wide poll conducted by the preeminent AtlasIntel in January. In this case, these are the country-by-country approval-disapproval ratings for:

Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military operation that arrested Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, on charges related to drug trafficking?

Who knew the Caribbean was so excited to have the U.S. Navy around? Mexico and Brazil (and Latinos on American territory) were always going to have a large number of haters.

It's interesting to see approve win the day across the board.

šŸ‡»šŸ‡Ŗ I N T E L R U N N E R šŸ‡»šŸ‡Ŗ
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Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø This is a historic high for the Labor Force Participation Rate.

We're reaching levels we haven't seen since the Dotcom peak.

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šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Stock Market: Friday Performance by Sector Utilities & Real Estate looked solid. Industrials, Healthcare, Staples, and Energy were mostly up. Technology, Communication and to a lesser degree, Financials and Discretionary, continue to struggle. 🟢 I N…
Media is too big
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šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Stock Market: Tuesday Performance by Sector

Financials came to life, and Real Estate is looking good as well. Industrials were solid.

Health Care, Technology, and Discretionary were mixed while Communication was relatively flat.

Staples, Materials, and Utilities mostly showed weakness. Energy was in the red, but not too strongly.

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šŸŒ Consensus GDP Forecast for 2026, 6-Month Change (in percentage points)...

Taiwan is booming from the AI race.

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šŸ›‘Gavin Newsom 36%
šŸ›‘Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11%
šŸ›‘Pete Buttigieg 6%
šŸ›‘Wes Moore 5%
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø The Polymarket odds for the 2028 Democratic Primary (with 5-month delta in brackets):

šŸ›‘Gavin Newsom 27.3% [-8.7pp]
šŸ›‘Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.5% [-2.5]
šŸ›‘Kamala Harris 5.8% [+1.8]
šŸ›‘Josh Shapiro 4.5% [+0.5]
šŸ›‘Jon Ossoff 4% [0]
šŸ›‘Pete Buttigieg 4% [-2]
šŸ›‘Andy Beshear 3%
šŸ›‘Wes Moore 2% [-3]
šŸ›‘Gretchen Whitmer 2% [-2]

It is quite obvious that Newsom, AOC, and Whitmer all did damage to their presidential prospects in Munich. I halfway think Kamala got the boost just from not being them.

That 8.7% drop for Newsom has to hurt. He's at his lowest point since August.

The caliber of these politicians is in free fall...

šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø I N T E L R U N N E R šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø
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šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Stock Market: Tuesday Performance by Sector
Media is too big
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šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø Stock Market: Wednesday Performance by Sector

Energy enjoyed a dominating position once again (+1.92%).

Tech and Discretionary bounced back today, while Materials and Financials enjoyed majority strength.

Industrials, Health Care, and Communication finished with mixed performance. Staples limped.

Utilities continued to struggle (-1.66%), and Real Estate appears to be heading into that anticipated correction (-1.34%), I suspect.

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šŸ‡®šŸ‡·šŸ‡®šŸ‡· The sites of suppressed protests in Iran according to research by the New York Times.
šŸ‡®šŸ‡· Strait of Hormuz: Iran temporarily closes key route for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade

šŸ›‘ Exports through the strait over the first five months of 2025
(daily average): 19.5 million barrels of crude oil & 50bcm of LNG.

šŸ›‘ Shipments through the strait: 31% of the global seaborne oil trade & 20% of the global LNG trade

šŸ›‘ Saudi Arabia is the largest exporter of oil through the strait, while Qatar leads in LNG exports.

šŸ›‘ 80% of trade originating in the strait goes to Asia (a whole lot to China) and 20% goes to Europe (AKA not an American problem).

šŸ›¢ I N T E L R U N N E R šŸ”„
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The essence of the point is that Bitcoin is very much a part of the macro environment and its cycles are essentially interactions of business & liquidity cycles.
šŸŖ™ Risk Indicator: the Realized Price, the True Market Mean, and the Short-Term Holder-Realized Price

"In the absence of an unexpected macro catalyst, the $79k True Market Mean and the $54.9k Realized Price are likely to define the primary resistance and support corridor for the mid-term market structure."


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šŸŒŽ How Cyberattackers Gain Access

ā—½ļø65% of access is now identity-driven. Hackers are rarely attacking software vulnerabilities compared to credentials. The hacks are against people, not computers, in the main.

ā—½ļøSocial engineering accounts for 43% of identity-driven attacks. Combined with credential misuse/brute force (21%), human-targeted attacks are 2/3rds of the total.

ā—½ļø8% are insider threats; 3% come from IAM misconfigurations. These are internal weaknesses, and they're especially dangerous because they bypass perimeter defenses.

Organizations should treat identity as their primary security control point. They should invest more in properly configured MFA, privileged access management, and user behavior analytics rather than focusing on traditional vulnerability management.

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