INTELRUNNER
CPI has prescription drugs coming in flat at 0.0% MoM. Medicinal drugs, a subset, actually dropped 0.15%.
This is hopefully a sign of things to come.
And it is, if Bloomberg's Price Tracker is to be believed (above). That shows drugs pulling back 2.5% year over year (vs. maybe a 0.5% pullback in CPI).
You should defer to the Price Tracker, as CPI is lagged, heavily adjusted, and differentially sampled. It is increasingly useless for anything beyond saving the Feds money and manipulating politics.
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INTELRUNNER
This is the largest revision in the past decade.
55% of job categories have added jobs to their rosters.
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INTELRUNNER
I presume there's a whole lot of peripheral mental disability being counted here.
I also assume it's the exact same population group that fills up Democratic Socialists of America chapters.
Prove me wrong.
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INTELRUNNER
Beginning with 2025, which was the worst non-recessionary year for hiring since 2003.
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Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.
This is the largest increase since the summer of 2020 (when state-sanctioned riots showed everyone just how serious the virus actually was).
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INTELRUNNER
Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.
124,000 of the 130,000 jobs added were in education and healthcare. Sigh. Not exactly a sign of an economy trending in the right direction. Those industries already employ so many busybodies.
Thought Experiment: Is this trade off where we live 10-20 more years with 5 health conditions but spend all of our money clinging to a much depreciated existence really an improvement?
We have to tackle chronic disease or all of this is a little stupid...
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INTELRUNNER
Manufacturing gained 9,000 jobs in durable goods but lost 4,000 in nondurable for a net gain of 5,000. It's still down 0.7% YoY, but it's a start, as we've finally broken the losing streak in this area.
Construction added 33,000 jobs (that's 65,000 over the past 3 months). And professional services gained 34,000 jobs. Both are subject to the business cycle and so represent solid economic news...
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INTELRUNNER
The 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF had its greatest inflows since Liberation Day last week.
As a result, $TLT appreciated 2.9% over the week, rising to its highest point since November. 20Y yields slipped 3.25%.
The slow flight to safety continues to develop. $IEF was up 1.25% itself...
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INTELRUNNER
We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
The FTSE All-World Excluding the U.S. broke out against $SPY from roughly Christmas Eve to Easter last year, rising 20.65%
I believe that could be the initial burst in a new trend. That's why I noted the change in character in the ratio (along with the Dollar threatening to break down) on January 22nd when it was clear the post-Liberation Day consolidation had wrapped up.
$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story. I've been watching this since the City of London's "Sell America" trade fizzled out and backfired, and I was skeptical in the first place.
I noted undervaluation in July (which proceeded to become even more imbalanced through Q3). If I had to guess, this trend will be a little more enduring than the Q12025 pop I mentioned at the outset. I'd wager the next big correction may reset it.
That said, I could see it going on for 2-6 quarters...
This is not financial advice, man. No way, no how.
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INTELRUNNER
$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story.
As you can see, profound amounts of money are rotating into the rest of the globeโparticularly developed markets.
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INTELRUNNER
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INTELRUNNER
Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military operation that arrested Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, on charges related to drug trafficking?
Who knew the Caribbean was so excited to have the U.S. Navy around? Mexico and Brazil (and Latinos on American territory) were always going to have a large number of haters.
It's interesting to see approve win the day across the board.
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INTELRUNNER
Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.
We're reaching levels we haven't seen since the Dotcom peak.
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INTELRUNNER
Media is too big
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Financials came to life, and Real Estate is looking good as well. Industrials were solid.
Health Care, Technology, and Discretionary were mixed while Communication was relatively flat.
Staples, Materials, and Utilities mostly showed weakness. Energy was in the red, but not too strongly.
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Taiwan is booming from the AI race.
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INTELRUNNER
It is quite obvious that Newsom, AOC, and Whitmer all did damage to their presidential prospects in Munich. I halfway think Kamala got the boost just from not being them.
That 8.7% drop for Newsom has to hurt. He's at his lowest point since August.
The caliber of these politicians is in free fall...
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INTELRUNNER
Media is too big
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Energy enjoyed a dominating position once again (+1.92%).
Tech and Discretionary bounced back today, while Materials and Financials enjoyed majority strength.
Industrials, Health Care, and Communication finished with mixed performance. Staples limped.
Utilities continued to struggle (-1.66%), and Real Estate appears to be heading into that anticipated correction (-1.34%), I suspect.
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INTELRUNNER
(daily average): 19.5 million barrels of crude oil & 50bcm of LNG.
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