INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
Real Estate is only up 3.5%. I would wager that's changing soon, but it's probably due for correction in the near-term. More on that later...
Media is too big
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Stock Market: Friday Performance by Sector

Utilities & Real Estate looked solid. Industrials, Healthcare, Staples, and Energy were mostly up.

Technology, Communication and to a lesser degree, Financials and Discretionary, continue to struggle.

🟒 I N T E L R U N N E R 🟒
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Other Notable CPI Categories (Energy & Shelter)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Another interesting category to watch is prescription drugs. More on that later at NFU as well.

CPI has prescription drugs coming in flat at 0.0% MoM.
Medicinal drugs, a subset, actually dropped 0.15%.

This is hopefully a sign of things to come.

And it is, if Bloomberg's Price Tracker is to be believed (above). That shows drugs pulling back 2.5% year over year (vs. maybe a 0.5% pullback in CPI).

You should defer to the Price Tracker, as CPI is lagged, heavily adjusted, and differentially sampled. It is increasingly useless for anything beyond saving the Feds money and manipulating politics.

πŸ’Š I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ’Š
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Annual CES Benchmark Revisions by Year, in thousands

This is the largest revision in the past decade.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ More than half of all industries are gaining jobs...

55% of job categories have added jobs to their rosters.

πŸ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ About 1 in 3 American women over the age of 60 is on psychiatric medications.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Percentage of Undergraduate Students Reporting Disabilities at Various One-Time "Elite" Schools

I presume there's a whole lot of peripheral mental disability being counted here.

I also assume it's the exact same population group that fills up Democratic Socialists of America chapters.

Prove me wrong.

🌈 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌈
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Percent of the Workforce That's Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ We have to touch on employment this morning...

Beginning with 2025, which was the worst non-recessionary year for hiring since 2003.


πŸ›  I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ› 
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Moving onto January, there were finally some decent jobs numbers. We had been on quite the downward trajectory, which we may or may not be escaping.

Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.

This is the largest increase since the summer of 2020 (when state-sanctioned riots showed everyone just how serious the virus actually was).

πŸ›  I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ› 
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INTELRUNNER
Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ But we have a recurrent problem...

124,000 of the 130,000 jobs added were in education and healthcare.
Sigh. Not exactly a sign of an economy trending in the right direction. Those industries already employ so many busybodies.

Thought Experiment: Is this trade off where we live 10-20 more years with 5 health conditions but spend all of our money clinging to a much depreciated existence really an improvement?

We have to tackle chronic disease or all of this is a little stupid...

πŸ›  I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ› 
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ A serious, sustained decline in manufacturing employment since Liberation Day.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ There were also some mild positives in the latest payrolls reports.

Manufacturing gained 9,000 jobs in durable goods but lost 4,000 in nondurable for a net gain of 5,000. It's still down 0.7% YoY, but it's a start, as we've finally broken the losing streak in this area.

Construction added 33,000 jobs (that's 65,000 over the past 3 months). And professional services gained 34,000 jobs. Both are subject to the business cycle and so represent solid economic news...

πŸ›  I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ› 
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡―πŸ‡΅πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ 10-Year Government Bond Yields for America, Japan, and Germany
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Tiny bit more on CPI & payrolls coming up, but let's dive back into markets...

The 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF had its greatest inflows since Liberation Day last week.

As a result, $TLT appreciated 2.9% over the week, rising to its highest point since November. 20Y yields slipped 3.25%.

The slow flight to safety continues to develop. $IEF was up 1.25% itself...

πŸ€‘ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ€‘
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INTELRUNNER
We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The World vs. The S&P 500

The FTSE All-World Excluding the U.S. broke out against $SPY from roughly Christmas Eve to Easter last year, rising 20.65%

I believe that could be the initial burst in a new trend. That's why I noted the change in character in the ratio (along with the Dollar threatening to break down) on January 22nd when it was clear the post-Liberation Day consolidation had wrapped up.

$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story. I've been watching this since the City of London's "Sell America" trade fizzled out and backfired, and I was skeptical in the first place.

I noted undervaluation in July (which proceeded to become even more imbalanced through Q3). If I had to guess, this trend will be a little more enduring than the Q12025 pop I mentioned at the outset. I'd wager the next big correction may reset it.

That said, I could see it going on for 2-6 quarters...

This is not financial advice, man. No way, no how.

πŸ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
$VEU is up 5.7% against $SPY in the meantime (part of 9.4% since the down trend was snapped around NYE), and it doesn't look like that's the end of the story.
🌍 Here are the flows that have already occurred through the 11th of February...

As you can see, profound amounts of money are rotating into the rest of the globeβ€”particularly developed markets.

πŸ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
🌍 The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in February 6th:
🌍 The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in February 13th:

πŸ₯‰ Japanese Yen πŸ’° (+2.97%)

πŸ₯ˆ U.S. Treasuries πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ (+3.32%)

πŸ₯‡ Japanese Equities πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ (+4.98%)

πŸ”½ Ethereum πŸ”· (-5.89%), Magnificent 7 🍏 (-3.11%), Chinese Equities πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ (-2.14%), Bitcoin πŸͺ™ (-2.12%)

πŸ”Ό I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ”½
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ The Caracas Stock Exchange fell 45.76% from the recent all-time high (just after Maduro's capture) on the 9th of January through the 28th. It had been up 300% month over month.
🌍 This is a Latin America-wide poll conducted by the preeminent AtlasIntel in January. In this case, these are the country-by-country approval-disapproval ratings for:

Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. military operation that arrested Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, on charges related to drug trafficking?

Who knew the Caribbean was so excited to have the U.S. Navy around? Mexico and Brazil (and Latinos on American territory) were always going to have a large number of haters.

It's interesting to see approve win the day across the board.

πŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ‡»πŸ‡ͺ
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INTELRUNNER
Nonfarm payroll employment was up 130K, beating the expectation of 50K. It also dwarfs the pathetic 2025 average of 15K.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ This is a historic high for the Labor Force Participation Rate.

We're reaching levels we haven't seen since the Dotcom peak.

πŸ›  I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ› 
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Stock Market: Friday Performance by Sector Utilities & Real Estate looked solid. Industrials, Healthcare, Staples, and Energy were mostly up. Technology, Communication and to a lesser degree, Financials and Discretionary, continue to struggle. 🟒 I N…
Media is too big
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Stock Market: Tuesday Performance by Sector

Financials came to life, and Real Estate is looking good as well. Industrials were solid.

Health Care, Technology, and Discretionary were mixed while Communication was relatively flat.

Staples, Materials, and Utilities mostly showed weakness. Energy was in the red, but not too strongly.

πŸ”» I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ”»
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🌍 Consensus GDP Forecast for 2026, 6-Month Change (in percentage points)...

Taiwan is booming from the AI race.

πŸ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ›‘Gavin Newsom 36%
πŸ›‘Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11%
πŸ›‘Pete Buttigieg 6%
πŸ›‘Wes Moore 5%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Polymarket odds for the 2028 Democratic Primary (with 5-month delta in brackets):

πŸ›‘Gavin Newsom 27.3% [-8.7pp]
πŸ›‘Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8.5% [-2.5]
πŸ›‘Kamala Harris 5.8% [+1.8]
πŸ›‘Josh Shapiro 4.5% [+0.5]
πŸ›‘Jon Ossoff 4% [0]
πŸ›‘Pete Buttigieg 4% [-2]
πŸ›‘Andy Beshear 3%
πŸ›‘Wes Moore 2% [-3]
πŸ›‘Gretchen Whitmer 2% [-2]

It is quite obvious that Newsom, AOC, and Whitmer all did damage to their presidential prospects in Munich. I halfway think Kamala got the boost just from not being them.

That 8.7% drop for Newsom has to hurt. He's at his lowest point since August.

The caliber of these politicians is in free fall...

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Stock Market: Tuesday Performance by Sector
Media is too big
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Stock Market: Wednesday Performance by Sector

Energy enjoyed a dominating position once again (+1.92%).

Tech and Discretionary bounced back today, while Materials and Financials enjoyed majority strength.

Industrials, Health Care, and Communication finished with mixed performance. Staples limped.

Utilities continued to struggle (-1.66%), and Real Estate appears to be heading into that anticipated correction (-1.34%), I suspect.

πŸ”» I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ”»
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