INTELRUNNER – Telegram

INTELRUNNER

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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally 🇺🇸 but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...

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🇺🇸 5-Year Oracle credit default swaps have widened to 141 basis points, the highest since 2009.

🇺🇸 You have to go back to the wake of the Great Financial Crisis to find small businesses planning less capital expenditure than today.

As usual, everything is set up to place disproportionate stress on small entities.

In the modern world, small business entities are meant to be yoked...

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🇨🇦 The Canada Post is Failing

It's going the way of the American Post Office: somehow continually deeply in the red despite possessing monopolies.

🇨🇦 Canadian Unemployment by Province

Newfoundland is worst off at 9.2%, while Quebec and Saskatchewan have the lowest at 5.2% and 5.3% respectively.

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🇺🇸 Russell 3000 median stock year-over-year earnings growth... 📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

Media is too big

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🇺🇸 Stock Market: Wednesday Morning Performance by Sector

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🇺🇸 The prediction market for Trump v. Slaughter sees an 83% chance that the Supreme Court will overturn or narrow Humphrey's Executor vs. the United States. [Polymarket]

🇺🇸 The prediction markets around the new Fed chair are indicating Warsh is likely to be nominated by the end of February and confirmed by May. [Polymarket]

Revised analysis is on the way for that...

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🇺🇸 ETF Flows by Category for the Week Ending on January 30th: 🥉 Consumer Cyclical – $4.49B 🥈 American Large Cap – $7.75B 🥇 Global – $9.74B There were less significant losses as American small caps, non-cyclicals, and precious metals cooled off... 📊 I…

🇺🇸 ETF Flows by Category for the Week Ending on February 6th:

🥉 Consumer Cyclical – $4.33B

🥈 Global – $4.69B

🥇 American Large Cap – $5.17B

There was little change from the week prior, save the numbers being smaller and 1st & 2nd switching places. Bringing up the rear were:

⬇️ High Yield – $-1.57B,
Municipals – $-0.83B

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🌍 Number of medal events during Olympic Winter Games

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The NHL season through January, visualized.

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🇺🇸 A serious, sustained decline in manufacturing employment since Liberation Day.

🇺🇸 Annual CES Benchmark Revisions by Year, in thousands

This is the largest revision in the past decade.

Obviously many jumped to say Trump is gaming the numbers. However, that woman he fired jumped in on Bluesky to say "still trust the BLS."

So allow me to jump in: do you think it's possible, or maybe even probable, that the government that lies to you about every war, every tax, every crime wave, every terrorist attack, every migrant, and almost every single tax dollar might also be lying about the employment numbers?

Maybe?

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🌐 $TOTAL3 (the total cryptocurrency market capitalization with the caps for Bitcoin ($BTC) & Ethereum ($ETH) subtracted) has returned to the ascending dynamic support line. It did make it above the key horizontal resistance to set a number of all-time highs…

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The staking ratio for Ethereum is up over 30%.

That's a new all-time high.

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🇺🇸 Figma Inc. is only in its 3rd quarter since its IPO, but it's fallen quite a ways...

$FIG's drawdown from the early high is up to 80.25%.

It's some kind of holistic design platform. Of course "AI-powered" is slipped into the mix.

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🇺🇸 Stock Market: Wednesday Morning Performance by Sector 🟢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🟢

🇺🇸 The energy and consumer staples sectors have been quite strong the last few months as investors rotate out of megacaps and tech.

$XLE is up 23.3% since December 16th. $XLP is up 15.8% since January 9th. Each are up 22.7% and 14.7% against the S&P 500 from each of those respective dates.

There have also been fairly substantial flows into Financials ($XLF), as banking ETFs like $KBWB have also appreciated quite a bit, as well as Industrials ($XLI) and Basic Materials ($XLB), which have been lagging the leaders slightly (probably due to gains unseen by said leaders last year).

Financials (outside of banks) have had the worst run year to date, pulling the sector down 5.64%. Technology is right behind, withdrawing 3.26% this year.

If this bull is to continue, we'll want to see leadership from something other Energy and Staples, which scream "inflation!"

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🇺🇸 The energy and consumer staples sectors have been quite strong the last few months as investors rotate out of megacaps and tech. $XLE is up 23.3% since December 16th. $XLP is up 15.8% since January 9th. Each are up 22.7% and 14.7% against the S&P 500 from…

🇺🇸 This is the sector performance year to date.

Energy, Staples, and Materials leading so far. This is the great broadening.

Real Estate is only up 3.5%. I would wager that's changing soon, but it's probably due for correction in the near-term. More on that later...

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🇺🇸 Preliminary and Final Medicare Advantage Rates 2020-2027

🇺🇸 America's Top Earners – The Biggest Paychecks by State

The map shows the gross household income required to join the top 10%, counting all earnings from members aged 15+.

⏺West Virginia: "Rich" starts at under $200K. The lowest threshold in the country.

⏺Washington, D.C., America's outlier: it takes more than $630K to reach the top 10%.

⏺In the most unequal states, the top 10% earn 3-4x as much as the middle class. On average, U.S. top earners make 2.7x the middle class, versus just over 2x in Europe.

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Netflix, Inc. has been having a bad time. It's down 32.8% since October 21st. Something to watch because the move to the downside is starting to look exhausted.

🇺🇸 The Nasdaq, Inc. is down 20.9% over the last 28 days.

I think it's a little overkill.

Q4 net income jumped 46.2% year over year, and ROE is at 15.27% with a debt-to-equity of 0.74%. Earnings slightly beat; revenue was up 13.4% YoY.

Insiders have been selling $NDAQ a bit, but institutions just snap the shares up. The former owns 10.8%. The latter owns 81.9%. Vanguard owns 10.5% itself.

Operating margin of 28.4%? The market's being a bit hysterical.

This is not financial advice, sir. This is Telegram.

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🇪🇺 The price of natural gas in Europe is up 11.17% year to date. Why?

🇪🇺 Bullying Among Teenagers in Europe

The percent of students aged 13-15 who reported being bullied at least once in the past 30 days is 24%.

Look how squishy soft some of these countries have gotten. That explains a lot.

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🇺🇸 This is the sector performance year to date. Energy, Staples, and Materials leading so far. This is the great broadening. Real Estate is only up 3.5%. I would wager that's changing soon, but it's probably due for correction in the near-term. More on that…

🇺🇸 The short interest on the Technology sector keeps rising.

It's up significantly even from the end of 2025.

One would guess that this downtrend will end with a squeeze of a crowded short...whenever it ends.

Obviously this chart precedes the recent down trend in $XLK.

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Inflation continues to hit the lowest incomes hardest as essentials & necessities see the biggest price increases.

🇺🇸 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in under expectations this week—at least on 3 of 4 counts.

Headline inflation was up 2.4% year over year and 0.2% month over month. That's a beat by 0.1% and 0.06% respectively.

Core inflation was up 2.5% YoY and 0.3% MoM. The latter is a beat (by 0.04%), but the former is right on target.

Overall, a positive if not optimal outcome. The 0.3% MoM for core is what worries. How sticky will it turn out?

In my opinion, this suggests we're likely to get more of the same, from markets and from the Fed.

Next week, we'll get the Fed's preferred inflation index, Personal Consumption Expenditure. PCE will give us greater insight into how the Fed wants to handle sticky inflation plus advancing unemployment.

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🇺🇸 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in under expectations this week—at least on 3 of 4 counts.

🇺🇸 Supercore CPI, on the other hand, came in hot with a 0.59% increase for January. That's the highest in a year.

Analysts had expected between 0.3% and 0.4%.

This is the sort of reading the Fed will point to when next refusing to cut rates, especially given one element of the acceleration.

Stay tuned for breakdowns of all 3 versions of CPI as we attempt to parse the details here...

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Headline inflation was up 2.4% year over year and 0.2% month over month. That's a beat by 0.1% and 0.06% respectively.

🇺🇸 This morning we'll be spending some more time with the CPI...

This is a breakdown of headline inflation (+0.2% MoM, +2.4% YoY), which is the lowest it's been in four years.

Food inflation is slowing dramatically. Energy is in outright deflation.

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