🇺🇸 The two-year treasury note looks poised to break out. It's not a full-blown flight to safety, but it might be a signal.

What we've seen so far is curve steepening, rates path repricing due to softer macro, and mild de-risking. The 2s-10s curve is at its steepest in four years.

This has been caused by the two-year note's yield drifting back down to 3.5% while the ten-year note remains anchored in the low-to-mid 4s.

Upcoming inflation and payroll data are likely to resolve this one way or the other. Until then, it may not be a bad idea to store spare capital in something like $SHY.

You didn't think this was financial advice, did you? No, it's not financial advice...

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🇺🇸 The Stock Market Today

The NASDAQ 100 ($QQQ) led the market today with 0.77% gain, followed by the Russell 2K ($IWM) at +0.7%. The S&P 500 ($SPY) advanced 0.48%, and the Dow Jones Industrial ($DJI) lagged, coming in nearly flat with a gain of 0.04%.

Technology ($XLK) and Basic Materials ($XLB) led sectors, adding 1.57% and 1.3%. Consumer Discretionary ($XLY), Consumer Staples ($XLP), Financials ($XLF), and Healthcare ($XLV) were all in the red with the latter worst off (-0.88%).

Semiconductors ($SOXX) and mining ($XME) broadly led the rally with gains of 1.22% and 2.42% respectively. Gold miners ($GDX) and silver miners ($SIL) specifically rose 5.65% and 5.81%.

$AMD gained 3.63%, $NVDA 2.5%, $AMAT 2.5%, and $NXPI 2.05%. $ASML was up a more modest 1.17%. $MSFT gained 3.11%. $CDE saw a 7.42% jump, $HL was up 5.14%, $FCX was up 4.84%, and $NEM gained 4.69%.

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🇺🇸 The prediction markets around the new Fed chair are indicating Warsh is likely to be nominated by the end of February and confirmed by May. [Polymarket]

Revised analysis is on the way for that...

🦅 I N T E L R U N N E R 🦅