INTELRUNNER

🪙 Bitcoin's Whales & Sharks Still Adding to Their Bags, While Retails Jump Out

🟠 Bitcoin's price has had one the worst days in its history, dropping 14% over the last 24 hours.

We're now at a 52% drawdown from the October 6th all-time high with a 31% drop year to date.

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🇺🇸 2030 Re-Apportionment Forecast

🇺🇸 NJ-11 Special Election Democratic Primary Winner [Results & Polymarket]

We had a surprise underdog victory in the special election in New Jersey's 11th District. Leftist Analilia Mejia defeated AIPAC candidate & former Lieutenant Governor Tahesha Way as well the favorite & the primary target of AIPAC, former representative Tom Malinowski.

In a three-way format that's becoming increasingly common in Democratic competitions, one candidate accepted piles of Jewish money to support Israel, one candidate came out against Israel, and another offered both support & mild criticism while striking a moderate tone.

In Israel lobby politics, the latter is treated exactly the same as outright opposition. They expect 100% compliance on votes & rhetoric or they're intolerant of you.

Malinowski dominated the prediction markets until the very end. Believing the leftist had little chance in this very wealthy city of executives & professionals (97th percentile), the Israel lobby focused their ire & surreptitious spending on Malinowski. (They set up cutout organizations with generic political names like "Americans for New Jersey" and attack their opponents on everything but foreign policy).

This has backfired on them as their candidate failed to reach 10,000 votes while two they don't like topped 16,000.

Mejia beat Malinowski by only 108 votes at last counting. Mejia will have to run again in the June primary if she intends to retain her new seat.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 S&P 500 – Quarterly Earnings/Share Estimates

🇺🇸 A familiar pattern on the NASDAQ 100.

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🇺🇸 A high interest coverage ratio explains the narrow corporate credit spread.

🌍 Emerging market sovereign credit spreads have been declining.

Honestly, basically every credit spread has been declining...

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🟠 Bitcoin's price has had one the worst days in its history, dropping 14% over the last 24 hours.

🇺🇸 Friday was the largest down day for the S&P 500 Volatility Index since the post-Liberation Day lows.

The $VIX fell 8.21% over the day.

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INTELRUNNER

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🇨🇳 Chinese More Likely to Favor Active Part in World Affairs

🇨🇳 China's provincial targets suggest a lower growth goal.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The U.S. Global Jets ETF, which covers airlines, had its best day in two weeks Friday, rising 5.73%.

$JETS is up on the back of a sector-wide tailwind, particularly in budget airlines like $ALGT and $ULCC. It is just now reaching the levels it fell from during the March 2020 COVID collapse.

Southwest ($LUV), the largest holding, saw 300% year over year leap in EPS—good for a 33.3% gain over the past three months.

13.4% of the holdings in $JETS have seen insider buying in the past six months.

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INTELRUNNER

🌍 The Global Returns Leaderboard for the month of January 2026

🌍 The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in February 6th:

🥉 American Small Caps 🇺🇸 (+2.2%)

🥈 American REITs 🏘 (+3.1%)

🥇 Gold

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(+5.0%)

🔽 Ethereum 🔹 (-23.7%), Bitcoin 🪙 (-16.1%), Chinese Equities 🇨🇳 (-3.9%), Magnificent 7 📹 (-3.4%)

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INTELRUNNER

$PAVE has appreciated against $IFRA for most of its history. $PAVE is the more pure infrastructure play, but $IFRA has the higher yield, as you'd expect from the make-up.

🇺🇸 Solid moves in the infrastructure plays I pointed out on October 1st of last year (a little early—mid-November turned out to be optimal).

Since 10/1, $PAVE is up 15.5% and $IFRA gained 11.5%. As anticipated, $PAVE gained 3-4% on $IFRA over the roughly four-month period.

We noted both would benefit from industrial construction, data center construction, and building out chip manufacturing capacity, as trillions of dollars have been allocated by Congress to do. Here's a quick differentiation between the two ETFs from last time:

There are two key American ETFs for infrastructure: (1) the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF ($PAVE), which is largely industrial, construction, and raw materials companies, and (2) the iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF ($IFRA), which has those but also includes companies in utilities & energy.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) is getting smoked by the Mag 7 ($MAGS) in recent days.

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The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) had its best day against the capitalization-weighted index ($SPY) since 2020.

Breadth has been catching up. This was essentially required to preserve the bull run. Of late, midcaps have been most impressive.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 A familiar pattern on the NASDAQ 100.

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The earnings schedule for this week's stock market...

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Coca-Cola ($KO) - This is the archetypal consumer staples name. Any hint of pricing power can sway inflation expectations and bond yields.

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Unilever ($UL) - A rare large-cap FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) print—often under-followed, so surprises can be sharp.

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McDonald's ($MCD) - Foot traffic metrics and value menu traction are back in focus as inflation cools.

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CVS Health ($CVS) - As the largest pharmacy benefits player, CVS is a proxy for healthcare cost trends. A beat could calm worries about medical inflation; a miss may revive rate cut chatter.

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AstraZeneca ($AZN) - A data drop on its oncology pipeline could reprice the whole biotechnology complex.

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Gilead Sciences ($GILD) - New trial read-outs could shift risk appetite to high-beta names.

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TotalEnergies ($TTE) - Brent forecasts and dividend policy could sway these energy equities, which appear poised for outperformance.

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Ford Motor ($F) - Ford's hybrid pivot and tariff commentary can move auto cyclicals and the broader industrial sector.

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Applied Materials ($AMAT) - A beat-and-raise here would bolster the cap-ex up cycle for next generation chips.

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Cisco ($CSCO) - Investors are focused on AI-ready networking demand.

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Coinbase Global ($COIN) - Crypto options market price in a heavy move; a beat could boost risk appetite across digital assets.

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Robinhood Markets ($HOOD) - A small cap with outsized volatility; any uptick in trading revenue can spark a relief rally in retail brokers.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 CME Odds of March rate cut by the Fed are now at 11%.

🇺🇸 The two-year treasury note looks poised to break out. It's not a full-blown flight to safety, but it might be a signal.

What we've seen so far is curve steepening, rates path repricing due to softer macro, and mild de-risking. The 2s-10s curve is at its steepest in four years.

This has been caused by the two-year note's yield drifting back down to 3.5% while the ten-year note remains anchored in the low-to-mid 4s.

Upcoming inflation and payroll data are likely to resolve this one way or the other. Until then, it may not be a bad idea to store spare capital in something like $SHY.

You didn't think this was financial advice, did you? No, it's not financial advice...

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INTELRUNNER

🇨🇳 China's provincial targets suggest a lower growth goal.

🇨🇳 The Chinese Share in Open Al Model Downloads Rises

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INTELRUNNER

🌍 Number of medal events during Olympic Winter Games

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The Stock Market Today The Dow was the only major American index in the red today (-0.83%), driven lower largely by UnitedHealthcare (-19.61%). The Nasdaq led with a 0.91% gain. Technology (+1.42%) and Utilities (+1.25%) led the day's action. As you may…

🇺🇸 The Stock Market Today

The NASDAQ 100 ($QQQ) led the market today with 0.77% gain, followed by the Russell 2K ($IWM) at +0.7%. The S&P 500 ($SPY) advanced 0.48%, and the Dow Jones Industrial ($DJI) lagged, coming in nearly flat with a gain of 0.04%.

Technology ($XLK) and Basic Materials ($XLB) led sectors, adding 1.57% and 1.3%. Consumer Discretionary ($XLY), Consumer Staples ($XLP), Financials ($XLF), and Healthcare ($XLV) were all in the red with the latter worst off (-0.88%).

Semiconductors ($SOXX) and mining ($XME) broadly led the rally with gains of 1.22% and 2.42% respectively. Gold miners ($GDX) and silver miners ($SIL) specifically rose 5.65% and 5.81%.

$AMD gained 3.63%, $NVDA 2.5%, $AMAT 2.5%, and $NXPI 2.05%. $ASML was up a more modest 1.17%. $MSFT gained 3.11%. $CDE saw a 7.42% jump, $HL was up 5.14%, $FCX was up 4.84%, and $NEM gained 4.69%.

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