INTELRUNNER
Might not be, but it sure looks and feels like oneโespecially with Goldman predicting a glut into next year.
Over the past three weeks, it's gained 13.23%. What's going on with black gold?
I would expect initial resistance around $65-66/barrel. I would expect more meaningful resistance between $70-72. And if it were to pull back, I'd be positive about a higher low that holds up at or above $60.
This is in no way, shape, or form any sort of financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
The PISA measures youths' real-world reading skills in the country's native or primary language of instruction, with top performers scoring around 550-560.
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INTELRUNNER
Trump's "Board of Peace"?
The countries who have agreed to be a part of Donald Trump's "Board of Peace" as of January 22, 2026 are highlighted.
The "Democratic Index" is complete & utter nonsense. If I don't cover that at NFU, someone remind me...
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INTELRUNNER
Both Obama & Bush had contemptuous second terms and Trump is working hard on his own...
We're a couple months on from our last check-in and Trump is no longer leading the 21st Century 2nd Term Approval Rating Race.
Actually, as of this past week, he's losing.
George W. Bush had a 44% average approval rating at this point in 2006. On January 29th, 2014, Obama's average approval rating hit 43.5%.
Both of them had been on a bit of a slight recovery from mid-month brushes with 42%. Trump is at 42.8% right now, and he hasn't been able to crack 43% for weeks.
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INTELRUNNER
It could easily double, but it should rally to the mid-60s no problem.
$NVO grew $64.16/share over the past month. I'd say that qualifies as "rallying to the mid-60s no problem."
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INTELRUNNER
This is the distribution of the net worth of Canadians by age group...
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INTELRUNNER
Indeed, China's growth trajectory has emerged from the pandemic on a more downward slope. The era of outlandish growth is likely over.
Can we stop pretending they aren't a developed nation yet?
Can we stop pretending they aren't a developed nation yet?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Wait until they have an active part. Then we'll see how much they favor it...
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INTELRUNNER
It's going the way of the American Post Office: somehow continually deeply in the red despite possessing monopolies.
That strike they mentioned only really lasted a couple weeks. There was a deal in a couple months. The normal service is protectedโfor now.
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INTELRUNNER
Make that 12 record highs thus far this year, as we're currently sitting at $4,920.50 per ounce.
Gold is up 23.2% year to date. The futures contract hit $5,626/oz today before pulling back almost 5%.
Silver continues its insane run. It's gained 60.6% YTD and it's now trading at $114.82/oz. Year over year it's up 270%โno other major asset really approaches that (except almost platinum).
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โค1
INTELRUNNER
There's a 32% chance at the moment, according to Polymarket. The oral arguments didn't go great...
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Gold is down 4.4%. Silver is down 7.2% The S&P is down 0.7%. The NASDAQ is down 1.1%. And Bitcoin is down 4.17%.
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INTELRUNNER
It's above 45% for the first time since December 2024.
In other words, this is as bullish as it's gotten under Trump.
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INTELRUNNER
The top decile averaged 32%, while the bottom decile came up with 28%. Stocks closer to their 200DMAs produced much lower average returns, including 5-7% for the 3rd through 6th deciles.
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INTELRUNNER
This chart plots the Z-scores of Bitcoin's price and the ISM-PMI from 2011 through early 2026.
Synchronous peaks in 2013, 2017-18, and 2021. Congruent troughs in 2015, 2019, and 2022.
The essence of the point is that Bitcoin is very much a part of the macro environment and its cycles are essentially interactions of business & liquidity cycles.
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INTELRUNNER
Question: When you get news and information about US foreign policy, do you generally find it difficult or easy to determine what is true and what is not?
Naturally, Boomers are the most confident in their perception of reality. They're also the most reliant on TV news. It's not a coincidence that they're seeking out the least nuanced, most slanted presentations of the news and they think it's shooting fish in a barrel to identify the truth in modern "news."
Gen Z is, once again, the wisest, most circumspect generation. They're also the least likely to consume TV news.
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INTELRUNNER
You get a uniquely evil government in London because the political system is so boxed in by the shadow government. It will be quite a surprise if Reform pursues any sort of real change.
In brackets, the delta since July 23rd (the last half year):
โข Reform โ 29% [-5]
โข Green โ 19% [+9]
โข Conservative โ 17% [+1]
โข Labour โ 17% [-3]
โข Liberal Democrat โ 11% [-3]
โข Scottish National โ 3% [0]
โข Plaid Cymru โ 1% [0]
Bet you didn't think Reform & Green would be the leading parties for the next election...
Reform has shed a bit in the last six months. In my opinion, that's down to becoming a Conservative refugee camp and taking on their baggage. The Greens seem to have drawn even more support from the bases of Labour & the Lib Dems.
It's going to be a different sort of election, but I suspect in the end, the Brits will find it's really all quite similar...
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INTELRUNNER
So liquidity must be looking up...
This is an important development and likely a good sign for short-to-medium-term relief in risk markets.
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