INTELRUNNER
10 subscribers
1.86K photos
9 videos
1.6K links
Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
Download Telegram
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Oil looks like a double bottom.

Might not be, but it sure looks and feels like oneโ€”especially with Goldman predicting a glut into next year.
๐Ÿ›ข WTI Crude Oil seems to be waking up, as anticipated.

Over the past three weeks, it's gained 13.23%. What's going on with black gold?

๐Ÿ›‘ On January 4th, the 8 core members of OPEC+ reaffirmed their intent to pause any production hikes through at least March.

๐Ÿ›‘ EIA reported crude stock declines of -3.8mb (January 10th) and -2.3mb (January 24th). These substantial American inventory draws signal firmer demand. At around 11.08M (2.5%) below the five-year average, stocks are bullishly constrained.

๐Ÿ›‘ The geopolitical premium continues to increase as American-Iranian tensions remain aggravated. Reasonable fears of supply shocks due to war are pushing up the price.

๐Ÿ›‘ Ansarallah added to the aforementioned premium when they recently began highlighting their martial successes in the Red Sea & the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis are threatening to engage America & Israel should they choose to attack Iran again.

I would expect initial resistance around $65-66/barrel. I would expect more meaningful resistance between $70-72. And if it were to pull back, I'd be positive about a higher low that holds up at or above $60.

This is in no way, shape, or form any sort of financial advice...

๐Ÿ•ฏ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ•ฏ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐ŸŒ Will 2026 Be Better Than 2025? In a 30-Nation Survey, 71% Think So.
๐ŸŒŽ The Best Countries At Reading

The PISA measures youths' real-world reading skills in the country's native or primary language of instruction, with top performers scoring around 550-560.

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore stands out as leader with an average score of 543.

๐Ÿ“” I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“”
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Over twice as many Britons describe themselves as "anti-Israel" as those who describe themselves as "pro-Israel."
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Who Will Sit on Donald
Trump's "Board of Peace"?


The countries who have agreed to be a part of Donald Trump's "Board of Peace" as of January 22, 2026 are highlighted.

The "Democratic Index" is complete & utter nonsense. If I don't cover that at NFU, someone remind me...

๐Ÿ•Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ•Š
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Both Obama & Bush had contemptuous second terms and Trump is working hard on his own...
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Second Term Job Approval Through the First Year to Date (Comparing Trump, Obama, and Bush)

We're a couple months on from our last check-in and Trump is no longer leading the 21st Century 2nd Term Approval Rating Race.

Actually, as of this past week, he's losing.

George W. Bush had a 44% average approval rating at this point in 2006. On January 29th, 2014, Obama's average approval rating hit 43.5%.

Both of them had been on a bit of a slight recovery from mid-month brushes with 42%. Trump is at 42.8% right now, and he hasn't been able to crack 43% for weeks.

โœ… I N T E L R U N N E R โŒ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
It could easily double, but it should rally to the mid-60s no problem.
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharmaceutical conglomerate, is up 15.4% since this post, even with the 7% pullback over the past week.

$NVO grew $64.16/share over the past month. I'd say that qualifies as "rallying to the mid-60s no problem."

๐Ÿ’Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’Š
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ America's Wealth by Generation
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ The Wealth Distribution Among Canadians

This is the distribution of the net worth of Canadians by age group...

๐Ÿ’ต I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’ต
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Indeed, China's growth trajectory has emerged from the pandemic on a more downward slope. The era of outlandish growth is likely over.

Can we stop pretending they aren't a developed nation yet?
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Chinese More Likely to Favor Active Part in World Affairs

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Wait until they have an active part. Then we'll see how much they favor it...

๐Ÿช– I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿช–
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ The Wealth Distribution Among Canadians This is the distribution of the net worth of Canadians by age group... ๐Ÿ’ต I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’ต
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ The Canada Post is Failing

It's going the way of the American Post Office: somehow continually deeply in the red despite possessing monopolies.

That strike they mentioned only really lasted a couple weeks. There was a deal in a couple months. The normal service is protectedโ€”for now.

๐Ÿ“จ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“จ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Make that 12 record highs thus far this year, as we're currently sitting at $4,920.50 per ounce.
๐Ÿฅ‡๐Ÿฅˆ Gold & Silver Set All-Time Highs (Again)

Gold is up 23.2% year to date. The futures contract hit $5,626/oz today before pulling back almost 5%.

Silver continues its insane run. It's gained 60.6% YTD and it's now trading at $114.82/oz. Year over year it's up 270%โ€”no other major asset really approaches that (except almost platinum).

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
โค1
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ America's effective tariff rate sits around 10.9%. However, if the Supreme Court tosses Trump's IEEPA tariff authority, it could drop to 5.7% quite suddenly.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

There's a 32% chance at the moment, according to Polymarket. The oral arguments didn't go great...

๐ŸŽฑ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŽฑ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Bloody Markets in Today's Session

Gold is down 4.4%. Silver is down 7.2% The S&P is down 0.7%. The NASDAQ is down 1.1%. And Bitcoin is down 4.17%.

๐Ÿฉธ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿฉธ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ More bulls than bears again in the latest AAII spread.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Bull-Bear Spread Climbs to Cycle Highs

It's above 45% for the first time since December 2024.

In other words, this is as bullish as it's gotten under Trump.

๐Ÿ‚ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿป
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
The top decile averaged 32%, while the bottom decile came up with 28%. Stocks closer to their 200DMAs produced much lower average returns, including 5-7% for the 3rd through 6th deciles.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Bitcoin, gold, and silver couldn't be more differently positioned in terms of momentum...

๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold and silver are way overbought. Gold's daily RSI is at 89 and the MACD is at 70. 84 RSI on the weekly. The monthly is 96 RSI. It's overbought.

๐Ÿฅˆ Silver's at 74 RSI on the daily (or after yesterday's retreat), 90.5 on the weekly, and 95 on the monthly. They're overbought.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Bitcoin, on the other hand, is oversold. 39 RSI & -745 MACD on the daily. 38 & -1,142 on the weekly. Monthly, 51 & -3,136. O-ver-sold.

๐ŸŒ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŒ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ’ฐ Bitcoin vs. The Average Stock
๐Ÿช™ Bitcoin and the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

This chart plots the Z-scores of Bitcoin's price and the ISM-PMI from 2011 through early 2026.

Synchronous peaks in 2013, 2017-18, and 2021. Congruent troughs in 2015, 2019, and 2022.

The essence of the point is that Bitcoin is very much a part of the macro environment and its cycles are essentially interactions of business & liquidity cycles.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Congressional Approval Ratings, by Party ID [Gallup]
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Discernment of Truth in Foreign Policy News Across Generations [Gallup]

Question: When you get news and information about US foreign policy, do you generally find it difficult or easy to determine what is true and what is not?

Naturally, Boomers are the most confident in their perception of reality. They're also the most reliant on TV news. It's not a coincidence that they're seeking out the least nuanced, most slanted presentations of the news and they think it's shooting fish in a barrel to identify the truth in modern "news."

Gen Z is, once again, the wisest, most circumspect generation. They're also the least likely to consume TV news.

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
You get a uniquely evil government in London because the political system is so boxed in by the shadow government. It will be quite a surprise if Reform pursues any sort of real change.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง The Find Out Now poll taken on Wednesday, January 28th in the United Kingdom

In brackets, the delta since July 23rd (the last half year):

โ€ข Reform โ€“ 29% [-5]
โ€ข Green โ€“ 19% [+9]
โ€ข Conservative โ€“ 17% [+1]
โ€ข Labour โ€“ 17% [-3]
โ€ข Liberal Democrat โ€“ 11% [-3]
โ€ข Scottish National โ€“ 3% [0]
โ€ข Plaid Cymru โ€“ 1% [0]

Bet you didn't think Reform & Green would be the leading parties for the next election...

Reform has shed a bit in the last six months. In my opinion, that's down to becoming a Conservative refugee camp and taking on their baggage. The Greens seem to have drawn even more support from the bases of Labour & the Lib Dems.

It's going to be a different sort of election, but I suspect in the end, the Brits will find it's really all quite similar...

โœ… I N T E L R U N N E R โŒ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
So liquidity must be looking up...
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The TS Lombard Liquidity Index has turned up.

This is an important development and likely a good sign for short-to-medium-term relief in risk markets.

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM