INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ’ฐ Bitcoin vs. The Average Stock
๐Ÿงข Tokenized Real World Assets (RWA) Hit $21 Billion in Total Value Locked (TVL)

The most popular asset by far is U.S. treasury debt at 42.4%.


The next most popular are commodities (17.6%), private credit (11.7%), institutional alternative funds (10.8%), and corporate bonds (5.6%).

It seems likely to be a burgeoning sector in crypto...

Not financial advice.

๐Ÿ”  I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ” 
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INTELRUNNER
A weaker Dollar often signals a risk-on environment in which investors are comfortable moving out of the safety of U.S. assets.

We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Foreign-Held U.S. Equities as a Percentage of Foreign-Held U.S. Financial Assets

It's a record high for foreign ownership of American financial assets. It's an even greater percentage than the late 60s.

Perfect timing. While they're all holding American assets, we'll jump to foreign assets!

Not financial advice...

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Will the breakout continue in the Lithium ETF ($LIT)?
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Lithium ETF ($LIT) is still cookin'.

It's now up 67.25% in a little over seven months since its breakout was noted here. That's a 57% gain against $SPY over the same period.

๐ŸŸขElectric vehicles continue to drive total battery demand (which saw a 25% increase last year).

๐ŸŸขExpanding even more quickly at around 44% last year are battery energy storage systems (BESS), which are the only way to make wind & solar potentially functional.

๐Ÿ”ดLithium carbonate prices in North Asia surged 56% last year from their January 2025 lows.

๐Ÿ”ดContemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), the world's largest battery manufacturer, has had operations at their large Jianxiawo mine shut down since August due to an expired mining license.

๐Ÿ”ดThis is viewed as part of China's push to limit the opportunity cost of overcapacity production. The Jiangxi provincial government mandated 30-day production halts for 12 lithium converters in July 2025, for another example.

๐Ÿงช INTELRUNNER ๐Ÿงช
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿช™ Bitcoin's Whales & Sharks Still Adding to Their Bags, While Retails Jump Out
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Tuesday's dip buy by retail was the third biggest such dip buy performed by retail and the largest since a pair of dates in the spring, around Liberation Day and 6 weeks following.

๐Ÿ“‰ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ States with the highest and lowest shares of their populations receiving SNAP benefits (food stamps).
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ GrubHub is the most affordable food delivery service in 24 states.

12 for Uber Eats & 14 for DoorDash...

๐Ÿ” I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŸ
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If it closes positive today, the 2008 record for consecutive trading sessions in which $IWM beats the S&P 500 ($SPY) in percentage terms will be in play.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Russell 2K dropped 1.88% against the S&P 500 on Friday.

But not before
$IWM broke the record for consecutive sessions besting $SPY Thursday afternoon, when it completed its fourteenth such outperformance for a total 8.43% gain.

It will be interesting to see where small caps go from here...

โœ… I N T E L R U N N E R โœ…
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Labor Demand vs. Supply
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Percent more sellers than buyers actively in the market...

It's a buyers' market: there are 37% more home sellers than buyers.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Percent more sellers than buyers actively in the market... It's a buyers' market: there are 37% more home sellers than buyers. ๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Estimated number of U.S. homebuyers and sellers actively in the market...

Homebuyers and sellers are both backing off:

Buyers are backing off due to high housing costs and economic uncertainty. Sellers, many of whom are buyers themselves, are backing off in response to lackluster demand for their homes. Some sellers are delisting after watching their homes sit on the market for months with zero bites from buyers, while others are choosing not to list at all after seeing their neighborโ€™s house sell for under the asking price.


This is the second lowest level numbers of buyers (exceeded, barely, only by the launch of COVID) and the largest decline in the number of sellers in two years.

๐Ÿก I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿก
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Vaccinated children (at least one, with a median of 18 among the group) exhibited a whopping 57% probability of ending up with a disease by the time they are 10 years old.

The vaxxed are 2.48 times more likely to suffer from a chronic health condition within 10 years.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ I see we're doing the measles "outbreak" panic campaign again. So let's this chartโ€”odds of dying from a cause in the year 2000 and from measles in 1962 (1 in X)โ€”as a remedy for this mental illness.

This is where a person's odds of dying of measles in 1962 (the vaccine was released one year later in 1963) ranks among other unusual forms of death.

And it was an unusual form of death, make no mistake about it. Remember those chicken pox parties people would have? They did the same with measles. Because once you catch it, you attain lifetime immunity and a stronger early-life immune education, and those are serious perks.

Especially considering that it had a 99.9% survival rate (in 1962). It produces no more than a cough & a rash in the vast majority of cases. And when the oft-discussed complications do appear, vitamin A is the solution.

So where does it rank? Measles killed 408 out of 186,538,000. That's 1 in 457,000, well below "inhalation & ingestion of food causing obstruction" (1 in 370,000) or "contact with machinery" (1 in 407,000).

The risk is roughly on par with unfortunate activities like a "fall involving furniture" (1 in 424,000) and a "fall on [the] same level from slipping, tripping, and stumbling" (1 in 487,000).

So as the media once again degenerates into relentless medical fear porn, remember that such endeavors are a red flag indicating you must do one thing very urgently: look into whatever they're fear-mongering about with an intensive & unrelenting skepticism.

I assure you: you will be rewarded...

More on INTELRUNNER
โ€ข Impact of Childhood Vaccination on Short- and Long-Term Chronic Health Outcomes in Children (A Birth Cohort Study by Henry Ford Health System)
โ€ข Children Up To Date on Recommended Vaccines Has Dropped

๐Ÿ’‰ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’‰
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 10-Year American-German Government Bond Spread
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Domestic and Hedged Bond Yields for Japanese Investors

The Japanese are now better off investing in their own country's JGBs (from a yield perspective) than making hedged investments in German bunds, British gilts, or American treasuries.

๐ŸŒซ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŒซ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Stock Market Last Week
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Stock Market Last Week

The S&P 500 fell 0.35%, while the average stock fell 0.16%. 237 stocks outperformed over this four-day week.

Energy (+3.1%) and Basic Materials (+2.6%) were the strongest sectors. Financials (-2.5%) and Real Estate (-2.4%) were the weakest.

๐Ÿ“‰ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lower-income households face higher inflation...
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Headline & Core Inflation in Singapore

Year over year inflation came in at 1.2% in both contexts. It was up 0.3% month over month for headline and 0.4% for core.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran's Top Export Destinations

They're largely concentrated in Asia.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The sites of suppressed protests in Iran according to research by the New York Times.

They will not be doing the corollary: sites of murders of security personnel & civilians in the pursuit of greater rebellion.

๐Ÿ—บ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ—บ
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Arctic air minus steady supply plus aggressive short sellers equals the largest two-day gain since 1990 for Henry Hub: 54%.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Natural gas has had an insane week...

On January 16th, the Friday before last, it closed at $3.103/MMBtu. Yesterday, it hit $7.439/MMBtu intraday, closing around $6.80.

Overnight it's shed another 5% and is trading in the 6.40s. That's a 107.25% gain since that close on the 16th.

Is it just the storm? We covered that on the second day of the rally:

Arctic air minus steady supply plus aggressive short sellers equals the largest two-day gain since 1990 for Henry Hub: 54%.


๐Ÿ”ฅ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ฅ
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According to several new data sources, heterosexuality is back among American students.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Percent of Population Under Age 18, 1990 vs. 2024, by American State

Same scale for both...

๐Ÿ’ซ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’ซ
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๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง The pound sterling is at 4+ year high, having reached levels last seen in October 2021.

The reading on GBPUSD is at roughly $1.38...

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Stock Market Last Week
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Stock Market Today

The Dow was the only major American index in the red today (-0.83%), driven lower largely by UnitedHealthcare (-19.61%). The Nasdaq led with a 0.91% gain.

Technology (+1.42%) and Utilities (+1.25%) led the day's action. As you may be able to anticipate from $UNH tanking $DJI today, Healthcare brought up the rear with a -1.66% loss, with Financials (-0.74%) as the only other red sector.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
As you may be able to anticipate from $UNH tanking $DJI today, Healthcare brought up the rear with a -1.66% loss, with Financials (-0.74%) as the only other red sector.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Preliminary and Final Medicare Advantage Rates 2020-2027

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released their advance notice projection of the increase in Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates in 2027, and insurers are not happy.

The preliminary number is an increase of 0.09%. This is well under the 4-6% increase Wall Street was expecting from the latest sleepy, corrupt Administration in D.C. as well as being well below the 5% increase they saw for 2026.

This immediately compressed earnings-growth assumptions and forced insurers to think about benefit cuts, premium hikes, and cost controls.

The final rate increase will be announced in early April. Since 2018, that number tends to be higher than the preliminary projection, but only by 1-1.5 points. Last year is a notable exception to this; we jumped from 2.2% to 5.1%.

Any such increase in April is likely to spark a relief rally. If we get massive increase like last year's, it could be significant. While it's theoretically rare, I wouldn't overly handicap the possibility given how political such decision-making is increasingly becoming.

In fact, there's a high likelihood this tiny increase in the reimbursement rate is itself an attempt by regulators to push back on industry tactics like up-coding & risk score-boosting.

If that's the case, I would expect insurance lobbyists to be buying their way into the Oval Office for the next few months...

Note: Don't for a second think I'm underestimating the massive impact of CMS regulation & auditing on the trajectory of healthcare pricing growth. I'm not.

๐Ÿค• I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿค•
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