INTELRUNNER
If it closes positive today, the 2008 record for consecutive trading sessions in which $IWM beats the S&P 500 ($SPY) in percentage terms will be in play.
Today would be the 13th straight session, so we're going for an opportunity at the record tomorrow...
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INTELRUNNER
In short, no, they didn't mean to do it, and they aren't as good at planning as they insist they are to us online every single day...
Indeed, China's growth trajectory has emerged from the pandemic on a more downward slope. The era of outlandish growth is likely over.
Can we stop pretending they aren't a developed nation yet?
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INTELRUNNER
Three separate attempts by the Fed to dramatically cut rates, and three separate instances where the 10-year yield rose anyway.
It currently reads 4.26%, which is up 2.77% since the breakout this month. It's also now above the VWAP that it's been responding to, anchored to the October 2022 high.
Will it drift to the top of the triangle as the Fed stands pat?
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INTELRUNNER
"I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here."
On Friday, it closed at $3.103/MMBtu. Yesterday, it was +25.91% to $3.907, and today it jumped another +28.95% to $5.038.
This is largely tied to the Arctic weather patterns sweeping North America, which on top being cold threaten "freeze-offs" of production and pipeline flows. It certainly helped that many people were caught short at the bottom when the forecast shifted.
Arctic air minus steady supply plus aggressive short sellers equals the largest two-day gain since 1990 for Henry Hub: 54%.
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INTELRUNNER
In Q2, analysts expect +6.6%, undoing almost the entirety of Q1's contraction. Q3 is more modest at 1.4% growth, but in Q4 analysts anticipate a double digit expansion of 10.8%.
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INTELRUNNER
The 200-day moving averages of all of the countries are rising...
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INTELRUNNER
This is an AI-produced chart showing some of the highest effective tariff rates on American products.
The last recorded effective tariff rate was 10.9%, though it's constantly in flux given the nature of tariff use in this Administration.
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INTELRUNNER
That would undoubtedly not be the end of it...
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INTELRUNNER
They're largely concentrated in Asia. These are the top 5:
It would be interesting to see what the rest of the world is composed of. These are all essentially neighbors.
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INTELRUNNER
This is the weekly chart for Bitcoin priced Equal-Weight S&P 500 ($RSP) shares.
It's not the best-looking chart.
Part of me feels like it's due for a bounce. Whales have been buying into retail sales, it's a bit oversold in the medium-term, and it's lagging similar assets.
But it's an ugly chart. There's no denying it's ugly...
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INTELRUNNER
Gold Prices Hit a Record $4,673 per Ounce
That's an 8.3% gain year-to-date.
That's an 8.3% gain year-to-date.
Make that 12 record highs thus far this year, as we're currently sitting at $4,920.50 per ounce.
That's a year-to-date gain of 13.37%.
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INTELRUNNER
23 cents beneath it, to be precise. If $KRE is able to regain that level, it will have only the 2022 all-time high level overhead.
$KRE is up about 16.9% against the broader market ($SPY) since Halloween.
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INTELRUNNER
Still a considerable premium on U.S. equities. This can be justified by historical data, but it may not be sustainable in the new world.
The profits of international firms will be higher in Dollar terms when the Dollar is weaker. A weaker Dollar often signals a risk-on environment in which investors are comfortable moving out of the safety of U.S. assets.
We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
However, this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that U.S. exporters do better under the same conditions.
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INTELRUNNER
The most popular asset by far is U.S. treasury debt at 42.4%.
The next most popular are commodities (17.6%), private credit (11.7%), institutional alternative funds (10.8%), and corporate bonds (5.6%).
It seems likely to be a burgeoning sector in crypto...
Not financial advice.
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INTELRUNNER
A weaker Dollar often signals a risk-on environment in which investors are comfortable moving out of the safety of U.S. assets.
We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
It's a record high for foreign ownership of American financial assets. It's an even greater percentage than the late 60s.
Perfect timing. While they're all holding American assets, we'll jump to foreign assets!
Not financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
It's now up 67.25% in a little over seven months since its breakout was noted here. That's a 57% gain against $SPY over the same period.
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INTELRUNNER
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12 for Uber Eats & 14 for DoorDash...
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INTELRUNNER
If it closes positive today, the 2008 record for consecutive trading sessions in which $IWM beats the S&P 500 ($SPY) in percentage terms will be in play.
But not before $IWM broke the record for consecutive sessions besting $SPY Thursday afternoon, when it completed its fourteenth such outperformance for a total 8.43% gain.
It will be interesting to see where small caps go from here...
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