INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally 🇺🇸 but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
🇺🇸 That's 10 consecutive days of outperformance for Small Caps vs. Large Caps ($RUT/$SPX).
🇺🇸 The Russell 2K opened +0.45% or so. So far it's holding.

If it closes positive today, the 2008 record for consecutive trading sessions in which $IWM beats the S&P 500 ($SPY) in percentage terms will be in play.

Today would be the 13th straight session, so we're going for an opportunity at the record tomorrow...

🔺️ I N T E L R U N N E R 🔺️
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INTELRUNNER
In short, no, they didn't mean to do it, and they aren't as good at planning as they insist they are to us online every single day...
🇨🇳 China's economy grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter of last year. (At least if you take their claims at face value 🧂.)

Indeed, China's growth trajectory has emerged from the pandemic on a more downward slope.
The era of outlandish growth is likely over.

Can we stop pretending they aren't a developed nation yet?

🤩 I N T E L R U N N E R 🤩
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INTELRUNNER
Three separate attempts by the Fed to dramatically cut rates, and three separate instances where the 10-year yield rose anyway.
🇺🇸 The 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) has broken free from the declining trend it was in for the past year.

It currently reads 4.26%, which is up 2.77% since the breakout this month. It's also now above the VWAP that it's been responding to, anchored to the October 2022 high.

Will it drift to the top of the triangle as the Fed stands pat?

😎 I N T E L R U N N E R 😎
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🇺🇸 Natural gas is down 23.2% since I said:

"I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here."
🇺🇸 Wow! I was going to point this out over the weekend but I decided to give it a day or two. Big mistake. Natural gas has had a huge first two days this week.

On Friday, it closed at $3.103/MMBtu. Yesterday, it was +25.91% to $3.907, and today it jumped another +28.95% to $5.038.

This is largely tied to the Arctic weather patterns sweeping North America, which on top being cold threaten "freeze-offs" of production and pipeline flows. It certainly helped that many people were caught short at the bottom when the forecast shifted.

Arctic air minus steady supply plus aggressive short sellers equals the largest two-day gain since 1990 for Henry Hub: 54%.

🔥 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔥
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🇺🇸 The energy sector hasn't broken this range in years—almost four years of consolidation—but it's back at the highs now.
🇺🇸 After a -6.8% reading in Q1, the S&P Energy Sector is expected to see positive earnings growth for the rest of the year.

In Q2, analysts expect +6.6%, undoing almost the entirety of Q1's contraction. Q3 is more modest at 1.4% growth, but in Q4 analysts anticipate a double digit expansion of 10.8%.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊
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INTELRUNNER
This is an AI-produced chart showing some of the highest effective tariff rates on American products.
🇺🇸 The evolution of the realized tariff rate from January to October of 2025...

The last recorded effective tariff rate was 10.9%, though it's constantly in flux given the nature of tariff use in this Administration.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊
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🇺🇸 The evolution of the realized tariff rate from January to October of 2025... The last recorded effective tariff rate was 10.9%, though it's constantly in flux given the nature of tariff use in this Administration. 📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊
🇺🇸 America's effective tariff rate sits around 10.9%. However, if the Supreme Court tosses Trump's IEEPA tariff authority, it could drop to 5.7% quite suddenly.

That would undoubtedly not be the end of it...

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊
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🇮🇷 The market for predicting whether the Ayatollah Khamenei will be out as the Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30th is up to a 44% chance.
🇮🇷 Iran's Top Export Destinations

They're largely concentrated in Asia. These are the top 5:

5️⃣ Afghanistan 🇦🇫 – $2.29B

4️⃣ Turkey 🇹🇷 – $6.09B

3️⃣ United Arab Emirates 🇦🇪 – $7.16B

2️⃣ Iraq 🇮🇶 – $11.69B

1️⃣ China 🇨🇳 – $14.57B

It would be interesting to see what the rest of the world is composed of. These are all essentially neighbors.

🔴 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔴
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INTELRUNNER
🪙 Bitcoin's Whales & Sharks Still Adding to Their Bags, While Retails Jump Out
💰 Bitcoin vs. The Average Stock

This is the weekly chart for Bitcoin priced Equal-Weight S&P 500 ($RSP) shares.

It's not the best-looking chart.

Part of me feels like it's due for a bounce. Whales have been buying into retail sales, it's a bit oversold in the medium-term, and it's lagging similar assets.

But it's an ugly chart. There's no denying it's ugly...

🐻 I N T E L R U N N E R 🐻
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INTELRUNNER
Gold Prices Hit a Record $4,673 per Ounce

That's an 8.3% gain year-to-date.
🥇 Gold's Record Run in 2026

Make that 12 record highs thus far this year, as we're currently sitting at $4,920.50 per ounce.

That's a year-to-date gain of 13.37%.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈
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INTELRUNNER
🇺🇸 The reason this 16-Week Stress Window is particularly perilous is the bank reserves are already run down from absorbing the massive pool of treasuries that's out there these days.
🇺🇸 The S&P Regional Banking ETF broke through its 2024 high resistance intraday before slipping slightly back underneath it.

23 cents beneath it, to be precise. If $KRE is able to regain that level, it will have only the 2022 all-time high level overhead.

$KRE is up about 16.9% against the broader market ($SPY) since Halloween.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈
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INTELRUNNER
Still a considerable premium on U.S. equities. This can be justified by historical data, but it may not be sustainable in the new world.
🇺🇸 v. 🌍 The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) inverted (top) and the All-World Excluding U.S. equities vs. U.S. equities (bottom)...

The profits of international firms will be higher in Dollar terms when the Dollar is weaker. A weaker Dollar often signals a risk-on environment in which investors are comfortable moving out of the safety of U.S. assets.

We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.

However, this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that U.S. exporters do better under the same conditions.

💵 I N T E L R U N N E R 💵
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💰 Bitcoin vs. The Average Stock
🧢 Tokenized Real World Assets (RWA) Hit $21 Billion in Total Value Locked (TVL)

The most popular asset by far is U.S. treasury debt at 42.4%.


The next most popular are commodities (17.6%), private credit (11.7%), institutional alternative funds (10.8%), and corporate bonds (5.6%).

It seems likely to be a burgeoning sector in crypto...

Not financial advice.

🔠 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔠
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INTELRUNNER
A weaker Dollar often signals a risk-on environment in which investors are comfortable moving out of the safety of U.S. assets.

We are likely entering a period of outperformance for the Rest of the World.
🇺🇸 Foreign-Held U.S. Equities as a Percentage of Foreign-Held U.S. Financial Assets

It's a record high for foreign ownership of American financial assets. It's an even greater percentage than the late 60s.

Perfect timing. While they're all holding American assets, we'll jump to foreign assets!

Not financial advice...

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊
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INTELRUNNER
🇺🇸 Will the breakout continue in the Lithium ETF ($LIT)?
🇺🇸 The Lithium ETF ($LIT) is still cookin'.

It's now up 67.25% in a little over seven months since its breakout was noted here. That's a 57% gain against $SPY over the same period.

🟢Electric vehicles continue to drive total battery demand (which saw a 25% increase last year).

🟢Expanding even more quickly at around 44% last year are battery energy storage systems (BESS), which are the only way to make wind & solar potentially functional.

🔴Lithium carbonate prices in North Asia surged 56% last year from their January 2025 lows.

🔴Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), the world's largest battery manufacturer, has had operations at their large Jianxiawo mine shut down since August due to an expired mining license.

🔴This is viewed as part of China's push to limit the opportunity cost of overcapacity production. The Jiangxi provincial government mandated 30-day production halts for 12 lithium converters in July 2025, for another example.

🧪 INTELRUNNER 🧪
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🪙 Bitcoin's Whales & Sharks Still Adding to Their Bags, While Retails Jump Out
🇺🇸 Tuesday's dip buy by retail was the third biggest such dip buy performed by retail and the largest since a pair of dates in the spring, around Liberation Day and 6 weeks following.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈
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🇺🇸 States with the highest and lowest shares of their populations receiving SNAP benefits (food stamps).
🇺🇸 GrubHub is the most affordable food delivery service in 24 states.

12 for Uber Eats & 14 for DoorDash...

🍔 I N T E L R U N N E R 🍟
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INTELRUNNER
If it closes positive today, the 2008 record for consecutive trading sessions in which $IWM beats the S&P 500 ($SPY) in percentage terms will be in play.
🇺🇸 The Russell 2K dropped 1.88% against the S&P 500 on Friday.

But not before
$IWM broke the record for consecutive sessions besting $SPY Thursday afternoon, when it completed its fourteenth such outperformance for a total 8.43% gain.

It will be interesting to see where small caps go from here...

I N T E L R U N N E R
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