INTELRUNNER – Telegram

INTELRUNNER

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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally 🇺🇸 but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...

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As a matter of fact, we're reaching 2020 levels of dovishness...

Just when they calmed down about Trumpflation—here comes QE.

🇺🇸 First Year Responses to the Fed's First Rate Cut in the Price Action of the 10-Year Treasury Note

The blue one is the recent one. As you can see, it's went higher. As it stands, the 10Y yield is around the same place as it was before the rate cutting began.

This also happened in the 70s when the Feds were being profligate and anti-capitalist then.

And it just stands to reason: if the federal government is borrowing so much money that the Fed's toolkit is essentially constrained to monetization (at least within the framework of traditional dipshit economics), why would you want any of your capital going there?

Add in the fact that everyone around the world can see the money is going toward corruption, violence, and repression, and it's not a very convincing investment thesis, is it?

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🇺🇸 The Jobs-Workers Gap has slipped under neutral for the first time since the recovery from the 2020 shutdown. It is the difference between labor demand (the sum of job openings & civilian employment) and labor supply (civilian labor force). 👨‍💻 I N T…

🇺🇸 Percent of the Workforce That's Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons

That means over 3% of the workforce would prefer a full-time job but can only work part-time.

This can be because they can't find one or because their bosses cut their hours below 35 per week. Either way, it's an involuntary situation.

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💰 The Top Ten in Social Mentions Per Hour (every day in a sequence for the last three months)...

💰 Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Profit & Loss to Exchanges (24H Sum)

Short-term holders have sent 41,800 BTC to exchanges in a burst of profit-taking. They have a realized price of $102K, so we'll see if this persists.

Likely, late buyers are unloading into the recent price appreciation. People are a bit rattled...

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Another government shutdown for the end of January?

🇺🇸 Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? And if so, by which date?

• January 31st — 15%
• March 31st — 33%
• June 30th — 44%
• December 31st — 48%

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The Russell 2K is out to its 2nd best start to a year against the NASDAQ 100 since (at least) 1992.

🇺🇸 That's 10 consecutive days of outperformance for Small Caps vs. Large Caps ($RUT/$SPX).

This is the longest such streak since 2008...

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🇺🇸 A breakdown of the fiscal impact of Trump’s big, beautiful bill…

🇺🇸 2025 saw fiscal policy tightening GDP by 1%. This year, it will loosen conditions by 1% (and potentially by 2.5% if tariff rebates come through).

It's actually even bigger than that, but more on that later...

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🇺🇸 5-Year Oracle credit default swaps have widened to 141 basis points, the highest since 2009.

🇺🇸 Hallucination Rates of Al Models

"When asked to cite news sources from an excerpt, Al models often gave confident but incorrect answers."

The least hallucinogenic:

🥉 Perplexity Pro - 45%

🥈 Copilot - 40% (still not using it)

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Perplexity - 37%

Grok is the worst in this department...

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🇺🇸 Hallucination Rates of Al Models "When asked to cite news sources from an excerpt, Al models often gave confident but incorrect answers." The least hallucinogenic: 🥉 Perplexity Pro - 45% 🥈 Copilot - 40% (still not using it) 🥇 Perplexity - 37% Grok…

🇺🇸 Annualized revenue at 32 of the most mature startups selling artificial intelligence apps or models.

OpenAI & Anthropic way out in front...

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🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMIs for the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and the European Union...

🇺🇸 A serious, sustained decline in manufacturing employment since Liberation Day.

There were multiple problems in execution in the tariffs. Unrealistic targets, for one. It was one thing while you were negotiating, but if you're not, some of these industries don't make sense.

Another issue is the court hangover. With the potential for everything to be undone looming, it's hard for businesses to commit. So you're getting the bad side with little of the good.

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🇺🇸 Morning Consult's Consumer Sentiment Index just hit its highest level since June, reading just shy of 100.

🇺🇸 This is one of the most bullish periods in recent history, according to Goldman’s Marquee client poll.

Only three other times in the past decade (late 2017, late 2020, and late 2024) have been this bullish.

In two of the three, there was a correction with three months.

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As it stands, the 10Y yield is around the same place as it was before the rate cutting began.

This also happened in the 70s when the Feds were being profligate and anti-capitalist then.

🇺🇸 First Year Responses to the Fed's First Rate Cut in the Price Action of the 10-Year Treasury Note [in the 60s & 70s]

During the Great Inflation of the 1960s & 70s, a similar phenomenon to that which we discussed in the last post can be observed on three separate occasions.

Three separate attempts by the Fed to dramatically cut rates, and three separate instances where the 10-year yield rose anyway.

This is what it looks like when the bond market calls a government's bluff...

There is only one out: debt reduction, deficit cuts—responsibility.

Don't hold your breath...

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Portugal, on the other hand, has been consistently prudent since its 2011 debt crisis. The success reminds one of Ireland last decade.

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The Winner of the Opening Round of Portugal's Presidential Election [Prediction Market]

Can Ventura hang on? This is Chega's best opportunity to make a splash.

Hopefully there's no chest-clutching.

Related on NFU
The Right Rises In Portugal
May 22nd, 2025

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🇵🇹 The Winner of the Opening Round of Portugal's Presidential Election [Prediction Market]

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The Winner of the Opening Round of Portugal's Presidential Election [Polling by Pitagórica for TV1/CNN]

The reigning socialist party still leads with 25% as of latest polling, but confidence in the traditional duopoly has cratered. The other once-leading party sits at 11.5%.

It's a three-way race. Ventura & the Chega Party come second with 23%; they represent real, nationalist change. Cotrim de Figueiredo and his Liberal Initiative (more like libertine compulsion, am I right?) present a second alternative, polling at 22.3%.

If Ventura makes it through, even in first place, it's quite likely he's defeated by a coalition of the others in the run-off. That said, this would also clearly establish him as the leader of the true opposition and would situate Chega well into the future.

If, on the other hand, Ventura comes in third, there will be a seriously tight run-off between Cotrim (pro-business social democrat) and Seguro (the socialist). Polling indicates no more than a 1.5% advantage for Seguro right now...

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And right now, many of these stocks are priced for a perfect run. No surprise some are falling short.

🇺🇸 SPX Seasonal Composite 4-Year Election Cycle

The seasonality of the S&P 500's performance in the presidential cycle is facing its worst year ahead with a decline penned in for most of the second & third quarters.

We're not even most of the way through the chop yet.

The index has followed this path awfully closely, with the only disruption being the fallout from the Liberation Day tariff announcement. Yet now it's back on track...

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🇺🇸 It's still small cap season, and has been on and off since the speculative shorts got a little wild last summer.

🇺🇸 The Stock Market Last Week

You can see the expansion in breadth as well as the pullback in tech and mega-caps...

Related: Russell 2K's Best Start to a Year Versus the NASDAQ Since 1992

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🇺🇸 A serious, sustained decline in manufacturing employment since Liberation Day.

🇺🇸 The sustained decline in manufacturing employment since Liberation Day is not the only problem in producer land.

Business is contracting and input prices are rising. In fact, this in large part explains the decline in relevant employment...

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🇺🇸 Market concentration is increasing. 📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 Market concentration has been worse than the peak of Dotcom since 2019.

As of November 11th, we were plumbing the lows. Effectively 44 companies drive the performance of the entire S&P 500.

Note: When you place $10,000 into $SPX, $4,000 goes to the top 10 companies. The remaining $6,000 is split among the bottom 490 companies.

The effective number of securities is calculated using the inverse of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index.

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🇺🇸 Household liquidity remains high—a tailwind for the economy.

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🌍 The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week (plus two) ending in January 9th:

🌍 The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in January 16th:

🥉 Japanese Equities 🇯🇵 (+4.2%)

🥈 Bitcoin 🪙 (+5.5%)

🥇 Ethereum

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(+6.8%)

🔽 Magnificent 7 📹 (-1.6%), NASDAQ 100 1️⃣ (-0.7%), German Equities 🇩🇪, American Equities 🇺🇸, the Euro 🔣 (-0.4%)

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💰 Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Profit & Loss to Exchanges (24H Sum)

💰 Bitcoin is lagging many other similarly performing assets or asset classes.

In the end, it will likely have caught up.

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