INTELRUNNER – Telegram

INTELRUNNER

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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally 🇺🇸 but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...

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🇺🇸 The monthly growth in retail sales for May (gray), June (green), and July (blue), in billions & seasonally adjusted. Auto dealers & online retailers are leading the pack… 🚖 CHART WATCH 🚖

🇺🇸 Retail Sales, by Category, for November 2025

Total retail sales were up 0.6% while core retail sales gained 0.4%.

Sports, Hobbies, Books, & Music led with 1.9%, followed by Miscellaneous Stores (1.7%), Gas Stations (1.4%), and Building Materials (1.3%). Furniture & Home Furnishings brought up the rear with -0.1%.

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🌍 The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index

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Housing in the European Union

Living conditions vary widely across the European Union, from home ownership rates and rental costs to the degree of household overcrowding.

Romania, which has the highest proportion of homeowners, also struggles with significant overcrowding. At the other end of the spectrum. Germany has the largest share of renters, with rental prices close to the EU average.

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Every day, it appears more and more likely that we will be grappling with a surge in unemployment before the resurgence of inflation.

🇺🇸 Labor Demand vs. Supply

Supply is the employed plus the unemployed. Demand is the employed plus job vacancies.

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🇺🇸 The Jobs-Workers Gap is sitting at a neutral 0%. It is the difference between labor demand (the sum of job openings & civilian employment) and labor supply (civilian labor force). 👨‍💻 I N T E L R U N N E R 👨‍💻

🇺🇸 The Jobs-Workers Gap has slipped under neutral for the first time since the recovery from the 2020 shutdown.

It is the difference between labor demand (the sum of job openings & civilian employment) and labor supply (civilian labor force).

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🥈 Silver's had one hell of a week. 📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🌍 The World's Top Silver Producers

As the silver price reaches the 90s (it was $30/oz this time last year), let's take a look at the top silver-producing nations in the world and their annual outputs:

🥉 Peru 🇵🇪 (3,100 metric tons)

🥈 China 🇨🇳 (3,300 metric tons)

🥇 Mexico 🇲🇽 (6,300 metric tons)

Mexico leads global production, despite having only 6% of the world's reserves...

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🇫🇷 Macron's Approval Rating Now Less Than Half of What It Was When He Took Office

🇺🇸 Congressional Approval Ratings, by Party ID [Gallup]

The partisans make sense. They like their side, they hate the other side, etc. The opposition thinks their party isn't obstinate enough. The party in power gives their people way too much leeway.

You know the drill. But what is going on with independents? 20% approve of the congressional GOP, 21% approve of the congressional Dems, but 12% approve of Congress as a whole...

That sort of reads like a lot of these independents are still leaning pretty hard in one direction or the other.

Americans have quite the electoral process at this point. Both parties compete to be the most corrupt and damaging party in history, and then, having done nothing for Americans, they turn to them and insist they pick between them.

Further, they insist whatever happens to them is their fault because they get to vote.

Further still, they insist voting is the only really legitimate form of political opposition.

Something has to give.

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As a matter of fact, we're reaching 2020 levels of dovishness...

Just when they calmed down about Trumpflation—here comes QE.

🇺🇸 First Year Responses to the Fed's First Rate Cut in the Price Action of the 10-Year Treasury Note

The blue one is the recent one. As you can see, it's went higher. As it stands, the 10Y yield is around the same place as it was before the rate cutting began.

This also happened in the 70s when the Feds were being profligate and anti-capitalist then.

And it just stands to reason: if the federal government is borrowing so much money that the Fed's toolkit is essentially constrained to monetization (at least within the framework of traditional dipshit economics), why would you want any of your capital going there?

Add in the fact that everyone around the world can see the money is going toward corruption, violence, and repression, and it's not a very convincing investment thesis, is it?

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🇺🇸 The Jobs-Workers Gap has slipped under neutral for the first time since the recovery from the 2020 shutdown. It is the difference between labor demand (the sum of job openings & civilian employment) and labor supply (civilian labor force). 👨‍💻 I N T…

🇺🇸 Percent of the Workforce That's Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons

That means over 3% of the workforce would prefer a full-time job but can only work part-time.

This can be because they can't find one or because their bosses cut their hours below 35 per week. Either way, it's an involuntary situation.

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💰 The Top Ten in Social Mentions Per Hour (every day in a sequence for the last three months)...

💰 Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Profit & Loss to Exchanges (24H Sum)

Short-term holders have sent 41,800 BTC to exchanges in a burst of profit-taking. They have a realized price of $102K, so we'll see if this persists.

Likely, late buyers are unloading into the recent price appreciation. People are a bit rattled...

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Another government shutdown for the end of January?

🇺🇸 Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? And if so, by which date?

• January 31st — 15%
• March 31st — 33%
• June 30th — 44%
• December 31st — 48%

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The Russell 2K is out to its 2nd best start to a year against the NASDAQ 100 since (at least) 1992.

🇺🇸 That's 10 consecutive days of outperformance for Small Caps vs. Large Caps ($RUT/$SPX).

This is the longest such streak since 2008...

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🇺🇸 A breakdown of the fiscal impact of Trump’s big, beautiful bill…

🇺🇸 2025 saw fiscal policy tightening GDP by 1%. This year, it will loosen conditions by 1% (and potentially by 2.5% if tariff rebates come through).

It's actually even bigger than that, but more on that later...

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🇺🇸 5-Year Oracle credit default swaps have widened to 141 basis points, the highest since 2009.

🇺🇸 Hallucination Rates of Al Models

"When asked to cite news sources from an excerpt, Al models often gave confident but incorrect answers."

The least hallucinogenic:

🥉 Perplexity Pro - 45%

🥈 Copilot - 40% (still not using it)

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Perplexity - 37%

Grok is the worst in this department...

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🇺🇸 Hallucination Rates of Al Models "When asked to cite news sources from an excerpt, Al models often gave confident but incorrect answers." The least hallucinogenic: 🥉 Perplexity Pro - 45% 🥈 Copilot - 40% (still not using it) 🥇 Perplexity - 37% Grok…

🇺🇸 Annualized revenue at 32 of the most mature startups selling artificial intelligence apps or models.

OpenAI & Anthropic way out in front...

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🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMIs for the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and the European Union...

🇺🇸 A serious, sustained decline in manufacturing employment since Liberation Day.

There were multiple problems in execution in the tariffs. Unrealistic targets, for one. It was one thing while you were negotiating, but if you're not, some of these industries don't make sense.

Another issue is the court hangover. With the potential for everything to be undone looming, it's hard for businesses to commit. So you're getting the bad side with little of the good.

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🇺🇸 Morning Consult's Consumer Sentiment Index just hit its highest level since June, reading just shy of 100.

🇺🇸 This is one of the most bullish periods in recent history, according to Goldman’s Marquee client poll.

Only three other times in the past decade (late 2017, late 2020, and late 2024) have been this bullish.

In two of the three, there was a correction with three months.

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As it stands, the 10Y yield is around the same place as it was before the rate cutting began.

This also happened in the 70s when the Feds were being profligate and anti-capitalist then.

🇺🇸 First Year Responses to the Fed's First Rate Cut in the Price Action of the 10-Year Treasury Note [in the 60s & 70s]

During the Great Inflation of the 1960s & 70s, a similar phenomenon to that which we discussed in the last post can be observed on three separate occasions.

Three separate attempts by the Fed to dramatically cut rates, and three separate instances where the 10-year yield rose anyway.

This is what it looks like when the bond market calls a government's bluff...

There is only one out: debt reduction, deficit cuts—responsibility.

Don't hold your breath...

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Portugal, on the other hand, has been consistently prudent since its 2011 debt crisis. The success reminds one of Ireland last decade.

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The Winner of the Opening Round of Portugal's Presidential Election [Prediction Market]

Can Ventura hang on? This is Chega's best opportunity to make a splash.

Hopefully there's no chest-clutching.

Related on NFU
The Right Rises In Portugal
May 22nd, 2025

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🇵🇹 The Winner of the Opening Round of Portugal's Presidential Election [Prediction Market]

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The Winner of the Opening Round of Portugal's Presidential Election [Polling by Pitagórica for TV1/CNN]

The reigning socialist party still leads with 25% as of latest polling, but confidence in the traditional duopoly has cratered. The other once-leading party sits at 11.5%.

It's a three-way race. Ventura & the Chega Party come second with 23%; they represent real, nationalist change. Cotrim de Figueiredo and his Liberal Initiative (more like libertine compulsion, am I right?) present a second alternative, polling at 22.3%.

If Ventura makes it through, even in first place, it's quite likely he's defeated by a coalition of the others in the run-off. That said, this would also clearly establish him as the leader of the true opposition and would situate Chega well into the future.

If, on the other hand, Ventura comes in third, there will be a seriously tight run-off between Cotrim (pro-business social democrat) and Seguro (the socialist). Polling indicates no more than a 1.5% advantage for Seguro right now...

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And right now, many of these stocks are priced for a perfect run. No surprise some are falling short.

🇺🇸 SPX Seasonal Composite 4-Year Election Cycle

The seasonality of the S&P 500's performance in the presidential cycle is facing its worst year ahead with a decline penned in for most of the second & third quarters.

We're not even most of the way through the chop yet.

The index has followed this path awfully closely, with the only disruption being the fallout from the Liberation Day tariff announcement. Yet now it's back on track...

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