INTELRUNNER
10 subscribers
1.87K photos
9 videos
1.61K links
Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
Download Telegram
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Mortgage Payments vs. Rent as a % of Household Income (1970-2025)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The national median rent fell 0.8% to $1,356 in its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

Prices are down 1.3% YoY and 5.9% from the 2022 peak (or about $86 per month). That said, prices are still 19% higher than the end of 2020.

They are expected to resume positivity by February or March at latest. It's a matter of seasonality.

๐Ÿก I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿก
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
This is the change in government primary balance (y axis) and the change in the unemployment rate (x axis)in the Eurozone, latest vs. Q4 2019.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece's Unemployment Rate falls to 8.2%.

This is less than half of the 20-year average. Greece has been on the up and up in a pleasant turn of eventsโ€”especially relative to a numbers of peers.

More on Greece & Europe
โ€ข Greece Controls The Largest Share of Global Shipping [11/3]
โ€ข Greece & Cyprus Display Fiscal Responsibility ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ [10/27]
โ€ข The Debtors & Creditors of Europe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ [9/26]
โ€ข Greece Leads Europe in Fiscal Shape [9/7]
โ€ข UK-Greek 10Y Spread Indicts London's Management ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง [8/26]
โ€ข Greek Debt is Cheaper Than French Debt Now ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท [7/24]

The Greek turnaround has been remarkable. Great for them.

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The national median rent fell 0.8% to $1,356 in its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The President announced that large institutional investors would be barred from purchasing more residences going forward.

Here's the reaction in a couple of relevant housing stocks:

Invitation Homes Inc. ($INVH) is a seventeen & a fifth billion dollar real estate trust engaged in the acquisition & leasing of single-family homes. It was founded in Dallas in 2012.

American Homes 4 Rent ($AMH) is an eleven & a half billion dollar real estate trust engaged in the acquisition & leasing of single-family homes. It was founded in Las Vegas in 2012.

More on this later at News from Underground...

๐Ÿ  I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ 
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
I noted the commercials going long while the hedge funds were historically short on August 12th, and I pointed out the bottom in the IWM/SPY ratio on August 25th.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ It's still small cap season, and has been on and off since the speculative shorts got a little wild last summer.

The Russell 2K is out to its 2nd best start to a year against the NASDAQ 100 since (at least) 1992.

It's up 3.65% YTD and 7.73% since November 17th.

Might we see a multi-year period of outperformance like 2000 through mid-2002?

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Unlike Chevron ($CVX), but like Exxon Mobil ($XOM), Barrick fled Venezuela after the socialist takeover...
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช The Caracas Stock Exchange was up 17.9% today. It's up 300.84% month over month.

$IBC is benefitting from optimism about the new caretaker administration. It has been seeing significant speculative capital, including many hedge funds buying up distressed assets.

The rally has been led by the oil & financial sectors.

Some of it is just mechanical. $IBC (sometimes IBVC) is a shallow, illiquid market and it doesn't take all that much buying to move it.

But some of it is legitimate. Sanctions relief and economic revival may be on the horizon, and that's outstanding for the Venezuelan economy...

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The market for predicting whether the Ayatollah Khamenei will be out as the Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of June projects almost 2 in 5 oddsโ€”1 in 4 by March's end...
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The market for predicting whether the Ayatollah Khamenei will be out as the Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30th is up to a 44% chance.

Here are the percent chances for various removal-by dates:

๐ŸŸขJanuary 31st: 20% [+8]
๐ŸŸขMarch 31st: 36% [+12]
๐ŸŸขJune 30th: 44% [+7]
๐ŸŸขDecember 31st: 61% [+12]

What if we didn't bomb someone for a month? Just throwing it out there.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The President announced that large institutional investors would be barred from purchasing more residences going forward.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The typical size versus the average cost of a new home since 2015 [U.S. Census Bureau]

The average size of a new single-family home in America has shrunk by 323 square feet since 2015, while the average price is up $161,000 as of 2024.

๐Ÿš I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿš
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
The Russell 2K is out to its 2nd best start to a year against the NASDAQ 100 since (at least) 1992.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Stock Market Last Week

The S&P 500 climbed 1.57%, while the average stock returned 2.42%. 282 stocks outperformed.

Consumer Discretionary (+5.8%) and Basic Materials (+4.8%) were the strongest sectors. Utilities (-1.6%) was the only sector in the red. Tech came in flat.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Where are personal income taxes highest in Europe?
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Does the entire income tax go to fraud?

Or just most of it?

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Compared with the United States, students in China, India and Russia do not gain critical thinking skills over four years."
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด Remigration & denaturalization.

Remigration & denaturalization.

Remigration & denaturalization.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ NATO Defense Spending As A Percent of GDP
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ณ NATO Defense Spending in 2024 (USA v. Everybody Else)

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ = a metric fuck ton

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ = half or less of that

Maybe we'll decide who runs that land mass off our coast.

Thanks.


๐Ÿ“ก I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ก
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
For the record: in 1979, gold's annual return was 126.5%. Just to give you an idea of what's possible.

And that's from the era where you could do things like take the FFR to 18% or balance the congressional budget
๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold has hit another record highโ€”$4,612.70 this timeโ€”in Sunday evening futures.

This is the first all-time high of this year and since the run of them Christmas Week.

๐Ÿ•ฏ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ•ฏ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ October to November Change in Americans' Holiday Spending Plans
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Average debt added over the holidays, 2015-2025

Holiday debt climbed the highest since 2022, with 37% of US consumers borrowing an average of $1,223...

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐ŸŒ The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in January 2nd:
๐ŸŒ The Global Returns Leaderboard for the week (plus two) ending in January 9th:

๐Ÿฅˆ Ethereum ๐Ÿ”น (+4%)

๐Ÿฅˆ Industrial Metals ๐ŸŒŸ (+4%)

๐Ÿฅ‡ U.S. Small Caps ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (+5.7%)

๐Ÿ”ฝ CAD ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (-1.3%), EUR ๐Ÿ”ฃ (-0.9%), JPY ๐Ÿ”ฃ (-0.7%)

๐Ÿ”ผ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ฝ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
We're easing, come hell or high water...
๐ŸŒ Central bank policy rate changes globally from 2020โ€“2025...

๐Ÿฆ… I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’ถ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM