🇺🇸🇻🇪 I could've sworn I posted about Chevron and Venezuela but I guess I accidentally kept that one to myself.

We're up 7.7% this year...

Chevron has extensive interests in Venezuelan oil and definitely stands to gain from recent developments (presuming it doesn't melt down into an insurgency or something).

🛢 INTELRUNNER 🛢

🇺🇸 The S&P 500 ended 2025 with $61.1 trillion market capitalization.

More on the S&P 500
🛑The Forward P/E Ratio Does Not Portend Well a Decade Out
🛑What Does the SPX-to-Gold Ratio Tell Us About Valuation?
🛑Wall Street Expects the Rally in $SPX To Continue in 2026

$SPX gained a globally modest 15.3% over the past year.

5️⃣ I N T E L R U N N E R 5️⃣

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 2025 was the year China's BYD surpassed Tesla, the one-time American leader in electric vehicles globally.

$BYD is now selling 2.26 million vehicles to the 1.64 million of $TSLA, representing a 38% edge. Their production advantage is slightly lower at 34%.

$BYD actually sold 40,000 more units in 2025 than they produced.

🚘 I N T E L R U N N E R 🚘

🇮🇷 The market for predicting whether the Ayatollah Khamenei will be out as the Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of June projects almost 2 in 5 odds—1 in 4 by March's end...

Here are the percent chances for various removal-by dates:

🟢January 31st: 12%
🟢March 31st: 24%
🟢June 30th: 37%
🟢December 31st: 49%

🇮🇷 I N T E L R U N N E R 🇮🇷

🇺🇸🇻🇪 Barrick Mining Corporation is up 8.15% year to date.

$B is another company with one-time interests in pre-Chavez Venezuela (the CEO advocated regime change at the time).

Unlike Chevron ($CVX), but like Exxon Mobil ($XOM), Barrick fled Venezuela after the socialist takeover...

💰 INTELRUNNER 💰

🌍 Will 2026 Be Better Than 2025? In a 30-Nation Survey, 71% Think So.

The nation most optimistic about 2026 is Indonesia (90%), followed closely by Columbia (89%). Chile, Thailand, and Peru tied for third at 86%.

The least optimistic nation is France at 41%. Second is the Japan (44%) followed by Belgium (49%) third from the bottom. These three countries are the only majority pessimistic countries in the sample.

🇮🇩 I N T E L R U N N E R 🇨🇴

🇬🇧 UK's Most Popular Cosmetic Surgeries By Gender (BAAPS
2024)

💉 I N T E L R U N N E R 💉

🇬🇷 Greece's Unemployment Rate falls to 8.2%.

This is less than half of the 20-year average. Greece has been on the up and up in a pleasant turn of events—especially relative to a numbers of peers.

More on Greece & Europe
• Greece Controls The Largest Share of Global Shipping [11/3]
• Greece & Cyprus Display Fiscal Responsibility 🇨🇾 [10/27]
• The Debtors & Creditors of Europe 🇪🇺 [9/26]
• Greece Leads Europe in Fiscal Shape [9/7]
• UK-Greek 10Y Spread Indicts London's Management 🇬🇧 [8/26]
• Greek Debt is Cheaper Than French Debt Now 🇫🇷 [7/24]

The Greek turnaround has been remarkable. Great for them.

🇬🇷 I N T E L R U N N E R 🇬🇷

🇻🇪 The Caracas Stock Exchange was up 17.9% today. It's up 300.84% month over month.

$IBC is benefitting from optimism about the new caretaker administration. It has been seeing significant speculative capital, including many hedge funds buying up distressed assets.

The rally has been led by the oil & financial sectors.

Some of it is just mechanical. $IBC (sometimes IBVC) is a shallow, illiquid market and it doesn't take all that much buying to move it.

But some of it is legitimate. Sanctions relief and economic revival may be on the horizon, and that's outstanding for the Venezuelan economy...

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇮🇷 The market for predicting whether the Ayatollah Khamenei will be out as the Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30th is up to a 44% chance.

Here are the percent chances for various removal-by dates:

🟢January 31st: 20% [+8]
🟢March 31st: 36% [+12]
🟢June 30th: 44% [+7]
🟢December 31st: 61% [+12]

What if we didn't bomb someone for a month? Just throwing it out there.

🇮🇷 I N T E L R U N N E R 🇮🇷

🇺🇸 The typical size versus the average cost of a new home since 2015 [U.S. Census Bureau]

The average size of a new single-family home in America has shrunk by 323 square feet since 2015, while the average price is up $161,000 as of 2024.

🏚 I N T E L R U N N E R 🏚

🇺🇸 The Stock Market Last Week

The S&P 500 climbed 1.57%, while the average stock returned 2.42%. 282 stocks outperformed.

Consumer Discretionary (+5.8%) and Basic Materials (+4.8%) were the strongest sectors. Utilities (-1.6%) was the only sector in the red. Tech came in flat.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈