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INTELRUNNER
This was before the housing market crash & the election of Obama made everyone forget Iraq is a country.
Trump is starting his Venezuela boondoggle from a much weaker position, having already pissed everyone off with Iran & Epstein.
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INTELRUNNER
That's the lowest since March 2021. Here's a chart of the past five years in average American gas prices (before taxes & other undue burdens).
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INTELRUNNER
In fact, we recently had a net gain of 10,700 BTC. That's a humble sum, but it's a step in the right direction and an indication sell pressure is lightening up.
I had noted the decline in long-term holder distribution a week ago...
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INTELRUNNER
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We're up 7.7% this year...
Chevron has extensive interests in Venezuelan oil and definitely stands to gain from recent developments (presuming it doesn't melt down into an insurgency or something).
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INTELRUNNER
We're at a P/E of 23.39 in $SPX. 10-year returns are almost all negative out here. The stock market may not be the refuge from inflation it has been...
More on the S&P 500
$SPX gained a globally modest 15.3% over the past year.
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INTELRUNNER
$BYD is now selling 2.26 million vehicles to the 1.64 million of $TSLA, representing a 38% edge. Their production advantage is slightly lower at 34%.
$BYD actually sold 40,000 more units in 2025 than they produced.
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INTELRUNNER
Here are the percent chances for various removal-by dates:
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INTELRUNNER
We're up 7.7% this year...
$B is another company with one-time interests in pre-Chavez Venezuela (the CEO advocated regime change at the time).
Unlike Chevron ($CVX), but like Exxon Mobil ($XOM), Barrick fled Venezuela after the socialist takeover...
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INTELRUNNER
Top Ranked Adoptees: India
Lowest Ranked Adoptees: Brunei
The nation most optimistic about 2026 is Indonesia (90%), followed closely by Columbia (89%). Chile, Thailand, and Peru tied for third at 86%.
The least optimistic nation is France at 41%. Second is the Japan (44%) followed by Belgium (49%) third from the bottom. These three countries are the only majority pessimistic countries in the sample.
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INTELRUNNER
Prices are down 1.3% YoY and 5.9% from the 2022 peak (or about $86 per month). That said, prices are still 19% higher than the end of 2020.
They are expected to resume positivity by February or March at latest. It's a matter of seasonality.
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INTELRUNNER
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This is the change in government primary balance (y axis) and the change in the unemployment rate (x axis)in the Eurozone, latest vs. Q4 2019.
This is less than half of the 20-year average. Greece has been on the up and up in a pleasant turn of eventsโespecially relative to a numbers of peers.
More on Greece & Europe
โข Greece Controls The Largest Share of Global Shipping [11/3]
โข Greece & Cyprus Display Fiscal Responsibility
โข The Debtors & Creditors of Europe
โข Greece Leads Europe in Fiscal Shape [9/7]
โข UK-Greek 10Y Spread Indicts London's Management
โข Greek Debt is Cheaper Than French Debt Now
The Greek turnaround has been remarkable. Great for them.
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INTELRUNNER
Here's the reaction in a couple of relevant housing stocks:
Invitation Homes Inc. ($INVH) is a seventeen & a fifth billion dollar real estate trust engaged in the acquisition & leasing of single-family homes. It was founded in Dallas in 2012.
American Homes 4 Rent ($AMH) is an eleven & a half billion dollar real estate trust engaged in the acquisition & leasing of single-family homes. It was founded in Las Vegas in 2012.
More on this later at News from Underground...
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INTELRUNNER
I noted the commercials going long while the hedge funds were historically short on August 12th, and I pointed out the bottom in the IWM/SPY ratio on August 25th.
The Russell 2K is out to its 2nd best start to a year against the NASDAQ 100 since (at least) 1992.
It's up 3.65% YTD and 7.73% since November 17th.
Might we see a multi-year period of outperformance like 2000 through mid-2002?
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