INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ An Average Year Isn't So Average โ€“ S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare (1950 - 2025)

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Macron's Approval Rating Now Less Than Half of What It Was When He Took Office
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Reminder of the -88 point swing in George W. Bush's approval polling between 2003 & 2007...

This was before the housing market crash & the election of Obama made everyone forget Iraq is a country.

Trump is starting his Venezuela boondoggle from a much weaker position, having already pissed everyone off with Iran & Epstein.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Gas Prices in America have slipped under $3 per gallon for the first time in 4 years.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Gas Prices are down again this month. This time they've slipped to an average of $2.75/gallon.

That's the lowest since March 2021. Here's a chart of the past five years in average American gas prices (before taxes & other undue burdens).

โ›ฝ๏ธ I N T E L R U N N E R โ›ฝ๏ธ
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In fact, we recently had a net gain of 10,700 BTC. That's a humble sum, but it's a step in the right direction and an indication sell pressure is lightening up.
๐ŸŸ  Bitcoin's price has swelled 7% so far this year, rising $6,000+.

I had
noted the decline in long-term holder distribution a week ago...

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐ŸŒ The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in December 19th:
๐ŸŒ The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in January 2nd:

๐Ÿฅ‰ Emerging Markets Equities ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท (+2.3%)

๐Ÿฅˆ Bitcoin ๐Ÿ’ฐ (+3%)

๐Ÿฅ‡ Ethereum ๐Ÿ”ท (+6.8%)

๐Ÿ”ฝ Gold ๐Ÿฅ‡ (-4.8%), Commodities ๐Ÿชต (-2.6%), Magnificent 7 ๐Ÿ (-1.8%)

๐Ÿ”ผ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ฝ
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๐Ÿ›ข WTI Crude Oil saw one of the few green days today.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช I could've sworn I posted about Chevron and Venezuela but I guess I accidentally kept that one to myself.

We're up 7.7% this year...

Chevron has extensive interests in Venezuelan oil and definitely stands to gain from recent developments (presuming it doesn't melt down into an insurgency or something).

๐Ÿ›ข INTELRUNNER ๐Ÿ›ข
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We're at a P/E of 23.39 in $SPX. 10-year returns are almost all negative out here. The stock market may not be the refuge from inflation it has been...
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The S&P 500 ended 2025 with $61.1 trillion market capitalization.

More on the S&P 500
๐Ÿ›‘The Forward P/E Ratio Does Not Portend Well a Decade Out
๐Ÿ›‘What Does the SPX-to-Gold Ratio Tell Us About Valuation?
๐Ÿ›‘Wall Street Expects the Rally in $SPX To Continue in 2026

$SPX gained a globally modest 15.3% over the past year.

5๏ธโƒฃ I N T E L R U N N E R 5๏ธโƒฃ
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Value of China's motor vehicle exports, in billions of dollars
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ 2025 was the year China's BYD surpassed Tesla, the one-time American leader in electric vehicles globally.

$BYD is now selling 2.26 million vehicles to the 1.64 million of $TSLA, representing a 38% edge. Their production advantage is slightly lower at 34%.

$BYD actually sold 40,000 more units in 2025 than they produced.

๐Ÿš˜ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿš˜
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ America bombs Iranโ€”who expected this price action? ๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท The market for predicting whether the Ayatollah Khamenei will be out as the Supreme Leader of Iran by the end of June projects almost 2 in 5 oddsโ€”1 in 4 by March's end...

Here are the percent chances for various removal-by dates:

๐ŸŸขJanuary 31st: 12%
๐ŸŸขMarch 31st: 24%
๐ŸŸขJune 30th: 37%
๐ŸŸขDecember 31st: 49%

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช I could've sworn I posted about Chevron and Venezuela but I guess I accidentally kept that one to myself.

We're up 7.7% this year...
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช Barrick Mining Corporation is up 8.15% year to date.

$B is another company with one-time interests in pre-Chavez Venezuela (the CEO advocated regime change at the time).

Unlike Chevron ($CVX), but like Exxon Mobil ($XOM), Barrick fled Venezuela after the socialist takeover...

๐Ÿ’ฐ INTELRUNNER ๐Ÿ’ฐ
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๐ŸŒŽ Cryptocurrency Adoption in Asia

Top Ranked Adoptees: India ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ, Pakistan ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ, Vietnam ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ, Indonesia ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ, and the Philippines ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ

Lowest Ranked Adoptees: Brunei ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ, Laos ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, Afghanistan ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ซ, Oman ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ, and Bahrain ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ญ
๐ŸŒ Will 2026 Be Better Than 2025? In a 30-Nation Survey, 71% Think So.

The nation most optimistic about 2026 is Indonesia (90%), followed closely by Columbia (89%). Chile, Thailand, and Peru tied for third at 86%.

The least optimistic nation is France at 41%. Second is the Japan (44%) followed by Belgium (49%) third from the bottom. These three countries are the only majority pessimistic countries in the sample.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Mortgage Payments vs. Rent as a % of Household Income (1970-2025)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The national median rent fell 0.8% to $1,356 in its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

Prices are down 1.3% YoY and 5.9% from the 2022 peak (or about $86 per month). That said, prices are still 19% higher than the end of 2020.

They are expected to resume positivity by February or March at latest. It's a matter of seasonality.

๐Ÿก I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿก
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INTELRUNNER
This is the change in government primary balance (y axis) and the change in the unemployment rate (x axis)in the Eurozone, latest vs. Q4 2019.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece's Unemployment Rate falls to 8.2%.

This is less than half of the 20-year average. Greece has been on the up and up in a pleasant turn of eventsโ€”especially relative to a numbers of peers.

More on Greece & Europe
โ€ข Greece Controls The Largest Share of Global Shipping [11/3]
โ€ข Greece & Cyprus Display Fiscal Responsibility ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ [10/27]
โ€ข The Debtors & Creditors of Europe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ [9/26]
โ€ข Greece Leads Europe in Fiscal Shape [9/7]
โ€ข UK-Greek 10Y Spread Indicts London's Management ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง [8/26]
โ€ข Greek Debt is Cheaper Than French Debt Now ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท [7/24]

The Greek turnaround has been remarkable. Great for them.

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The national median rent fell 0.8% to $1,356 in its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The President announced that large institutional investors would be barred from purchasing more residences going forward.

Here's the reaction in a couple of relevant housing stocks:

Invitation Homes Inc. ($INVH) is a seventeen & a fifth billion dollar real estate trust engaged in the acquisition & leasing of single-family homes. It was founded in Dallas in 2012.

American Homes 4 Rent ($AMH) is an eleven & a half billion dollar real estate trust engaged in the acquisition & leasing of single-family homes. It was founded in Las Vegas in 2012.

More on this later at News from Underground...

๐Ÿ  I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ 
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INTELRUNNER
I noted the commercials going long while the hedge funds were historically short on August 12th, and I pointed out the bottom in the IWM/SPY ratio on August 25th.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ It's still small cap season, and has been on and off since the speculative shorts got a little wild last summer.

The Russell 2K is out to its 2nd best start to a year against the NASDAQ 100 since (at least) 1992.

It's up 3.65% YTD and 7.73% since November 17th.

Might we see a multi-year period of outperformance like 2000 through mid-2002?

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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