INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Polymarket odds for the 2028 Presidential Election in the United States.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Some interesting prediction markets rolling out of late...

Another government shutdown for the end of January?

Yes please.


๐ŸŽฑ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŽฑ
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INTELRUNNER
As a matter of fact, we're reaching 2020 levels of dovishness...

Just when they calmed down about Trumpflationโ€”here comes QE.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Here's the prediction market for a U.S. bank failure by January 31st.

Mostly it's been bouncing around between 5 and 15 percent for the past few weeks.

What's that spike to 74 percent a couple days ago though? Hm?

Who knows something?

Is this why not-QE QE has started up again?

๐Ÿ”ฎ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ฎ
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Fun Fact: the very first post on this channel was about the importance of gold to every man, woman, child, institution, organization, and company. I said it's all about trading uncertainty.
๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold is having its best year since 1979 (the year of the post-Bretton Woods rally blow off top).

It's up 64.5% year to date and 143.8% since 2019. We haven't had a stretch of years this good since before, during, and after the Great Financial Crisis.

For the record: in 1979, gold's annual return was 126.5%. Just to give you an idea of what's possible.

And that's from the era where you could do things like take the FFR to 18% or balance the congressional budget, so imagine where this can go in lieu of those...

Other Related Content
๐ŸŸฅGlobal Gold Reserves: The United States of America vs. The World [Sept 26] (+ Addendum on Europe)
๐ŸŸฉIn Lieu of Glistening Gold, European Eyes Evince Gleams of Hollow Hope [Sept 30, NFU]
๐ŸŸฅSummary of Key Posts on Gold Through Q3 [Oct 2]
๐ŸŸฅThe Gold/Silver Ratio Drops [Dec 2]
๐ŸŸฅCentral Banks Still Buying Gold For an Ugly Tomorrow [Dec 5]
๐ŸŸฅThe 50 Year Return on Gold Exceeds Bonds [Dec 7]
๐ŸŸฅDebasement Trade Goes Mainstream [Dec 14]
๐ŸŸฉGold Priced in S&P 500 Shares Tells a Story [Dec 21, NFU]

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The prediction market for the Democratic nominee in 2028 shows strength continuing to rally for Gavin Newsom.

Are we really doing this?
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ YouGov's Latest Favorability Poll for the Democratic Party

โœ… Favorable โ€“ 34%

โŒ Unfavorable โ€“ 64%

Favorableโ€“Unfavorable ๐ŸŸฐ-30

That's the lowest favorability recorded in YouGov history.

That said, the Dems are still pulling all of the generic ballots for 2026. If that's not a loud & clear message for the RNC...

I don't know what is.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
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INTELRUNNER
The index increased 4.5% YoY. Buying each item from the list comes out to $51,476.12 for the 78 goods & services.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The PNC Christmas Price Index tracks the price of the gifts from the song "The 12 Days of Christmas." And now we'll cover the YoY change in its components.

The overall index increased 4.5% YoY, but we already discussed that and the "True Cost of Christmas" (the cumulative price of every gift or set of gifts in the song multiplied by every time it's mentioned in the song) being $218,542.98.

The 2 turtle doves, 3 French hens, 4 calling birds, 7 swans-a-swimming, and 8 maids-a-milking all remained static in price since Christmas 2024โ€”0% increase.


The music bumped slightly; 11 pipers piping and 12 drummers drumming cost 2.2% more YoY. 6 geese-a-laying is up 3.3%. And our 9 dancing ladies raised prices 3.5%.

Now inflation rears its ugly head. 10 lords-a-leaping will run you 8.1% more than last year. A partridge in a pear tree's jumped 13.5% over the 2024 price.

And, unsurprisingly, buyers of 5 gold rings suffered a 32.5% premium over last Christmas.

There is also a Core Christmas Price Index, but it just cuts out the swans for volatility...

The PNC Christmas Price Index has been tracked since Provident National Bank (PNC's predecessor) started it in 1984.

๐ŸŽฉ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŽฉ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Goldman Sachs Housing Affordability Index remains quite low...

Why? Prices are up. Wages are stuck. Mortgage rates are elevated
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Index

Housing prices are starting to pick up again...

๐Ÿก I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿก
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"Weโ€™re seeing credit stress in cohorts that still have jobs. Thatโ€™s new. Usually, you lose the job first.โ€
 โ€“ JPMorgan Chase, 3Q earnings call
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Credit Card Delinquency Rates by State

The South just isn't interested in paying.

Louisiana & Mississippi aren't screwing around.

A payment is considered delinquent once it's 30 days or more past due.

๐Ÿ’ณ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’ณ
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๐ŸŸ  Crypto stocks & Bitcoin treasury companies supplanted altcoins in the public consciousness as they underperformed Bitcoin by $800 billion this cycle.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Percentage of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming Their Benchmarks (Annual)

They're underperforming their usual underperformance.

๐Ÿ‘Ž I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‘Ž
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ In a recent poll, Gallup asked Ukrainians: which of the following statements about the war with Russia comes closest to your personal views?
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Americans' Belief in Paranormal Phenomena (Gallup)

Interestingly, the more likely you were to go to church, the more skeptical you were likely to be about the paranormal...

The question format: For each of the following items I am going to read you, please tell me whether it is something you believe in, something you're not sure about, or something you don't believe in. How about โ€” ?

๐Ÿ‘ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‘ป
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ A new ratioโ€”the employment-population ratioโ€”has reached its highest level since June.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Employment Growth Has Weakened Considerably (ADP) [Monthly Change in US Private Employment, 000s]

Every day, it appears more and more likely that we will be grappling with a surge in unemployment before the resurgence of inflation.

Inflation has been cooling off again, but unemployment has been heating up, and we all know the enormous issue with underemployment that Americans are and have been facing.

Not to mention the statistical games that are played with people dropping out of the workforce or working multiple jobs...it's a whole lotta rose-colored glasses polish out there.

Whether people still have jobs is likely to be one of the most important factors to keep an eye onโ€”especially regarding the real economy....

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Google Vs. Alibaba in Market Capitalization (2016โ€“2025)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Top 10 American Companies' Collective Market Cap

It peaked & stalled out in October. It's been chopping sideways in that $24โ€“26 trillion range.

๐Ÿ“น I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ President Trump's Approval-Disapproval Ratings from AtlasIntel โ€” Trump is on the brink of a 60-40 rating! Disapproval is pushing 60%, and approval is already sub-40%. An enormous gap has opened up over the past two months.
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Macron's Approval Rating Now Less Than Half of What It Was When He Took Office

Macron is starting to dip into Hollande territory...

Gallup asks: Do you approve or disapprove of the way [...]* is handling his job as president?

* 2012: Nicolas Sarkozy,
2013-2016: Franรงois Hollande,
2017-2025: Emmanuel Macron


๐Ÿงฟ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿงฟ
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๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Here's a seat estimate based on polling by Find Out NowUK on December 18th:
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Share of people who believe โ€œIt is possible to become truly British if a person makes an effortโ€ compared to โ€œA person has to be born British to be truly Britishโ€ (2023 vs. 2025)

I wonder if, at the end of all of this when everything is in total shambles and dangerous rogues roam every corner, whether it will dawn on the "progressive" useful idiots that they've been used by this priest class they uphold.

Probably not. Until the day they embrace the slightest bit of self-reflection, expect to see nativist sentiment on the march.

More: December 18th Polling on Parliamentary Elections

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
What's that spike to 74 percent a couple days ago though? Hm?

Who knows something?

Is this why not-QE QE has started up again?
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Polymarket odds for a bank failure are floating around 30%. The labor market is weakening, and precious metals are not responding to margin hike manipulation by CME.

As Graham Summers & others pointed out, this is fairly likely to indicate some very critical, well-connected financial entityโ€”perhaps something like a Globally Systemically Important Bankโ€”is suffering from a whole lot of precious metals shorts.

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ An Average Year Isn't So Average โ€“ S&P 500 Gains Between 8-10% Are Quite Rare (1950 - 2025)

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Macron's Approval Rating Now Less Than Half of What It Was When He Took Office
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Reminder of the -88 point swing in George W. Bush's approval polling between 2003 & 2007...

This was before the housing market crash & the election of Obama made everyone forget Iraq is a country.

Trump is starting his Venezuela boondoggle from a much weaker position, having already pissed everyone off with Iran & Epstein.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Gas Prices in America have slipped under $3 per gallon for the first time in 4 years.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Gas Prices are down again this month. This time they've slipped to an average of $2.75/gallon.

That's the lowest since March 2021. Here's a chart of the past five years in average American gas prices (before taxes & other undue burdens).

โ›ฝ๏ธ I N T E L R U N N E R โ›ฝ๏ธ
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INTELRUNNER
In fact, we recently had a net gain of 10,700 BTC. That's a humble sum, but it's a step in the right direction and an indication sell pressure is lightening up.
๐ŸŸ  Bitcoin's price has swelled 7% so far this year, rising $6,000+.

I had
noted the decline in long-term holder distribution a week ago...

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐ŸŒ The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in December 19th:
๐ŸŒ The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in January 2nd:

๐Ÿฅ‰ Emerging Markets Equities ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท (+2.3%)

๐Ÿฅˆ Bitcoin ๐Ÿ’ฐ (+3%)

๐Ÿฅ‡ Ethereum ๐Ÿ”ท (+6.8%)

๐Ÿ”ฝ Gold ๐Ÿฅ‡ (-4.8%), Commodities ๐Ÿชต (-2.6%), Magnificent 7 ๐Ÿ (-1.8%)

๐Ÿ”ผ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ฝ
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