🇺🇸 🇪🇺 In the European Union, a shift to value over growth materialized this year, while in America, the growth train can't be subjugated.

It really boils down to differences in the make-up of each economy. Europe has nothing like the Mag 7, and their regulatory noose strangles anything approaching an AI industry in the crib.

Therefore, their market is made up of more "old economy" firms in sectors like finance, energy (also benefiting from price spikes), industrials (where the EU hasn't eradicated them), or consumer staples—all classic sources of value plays.

And relative to the past few decades, interest rates have been up. This is a negative for growth spaces like tech, which are valued based on future cash flows that suffer a greater discount under higher rates.

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🥇 Tether isn't just stacking treasuries. It's piling up gold as well—faster than some central banks.

In Q3, it bought 26 tons of gold. That's 44% more than the next closest nation-state, Kazakhstan, which procured 18. Tether has also acquired substantial interests in gold royalties.

“Gold is nature’s bitcoin.”

~ Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO

Also, do note: this chart presumes China is telling the truth about their rapid hoarding of precious metals, and in particular, about their gold inflows. This is almost certainly not the case, and the estimates given are more likely understated.

🌐 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌐

🥇 They bought 26 tons of gold last quarter. That brings Tether up to a grand total of 116 tons as the end of September.

They're converting their USDT transaction costs & the interest payments from their (now mandatory) U.S. treasury holdings into gold and royalty & streaming companies.

Tether is making shrewd moves.

They're also making themselves an eventual target for nationalization, but that's a topic for another day and probably another channel.

💵 I N T E L R U N N E R 💵

💰 Bitcoin's Percentage of Supply in Loss

7 million BTC are beneath break even...

That's a third of the total supply underwater, which is a cycle high.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

💰 Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder Supply Change (30D Sum)

However, long-term $BTC holders (greater than 6 months) appear to easing off their distribution at these levels.

In fact, we recently had a net gain of 10,700 BTC. That's a humble sum, but it's a step in the right direction and an indication sell pressure is lightening up.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 On July 8th, I noted the Solar ETF had broken out of a 2.5-year down trend.

Here on December 30th, $TAN is up 32% since July 8th. It's up 19.6% against the broader market ($SPY) over the same period.

It's also gained another 14% against $XLE since I identified that budding outperformance on August 18th.

☀️ I N T E L R U N N E R ☀️

🇺🇸 Morning Consult's Consumer Sentiment Index just hit its highest level since June, reading just shy of 100.

This is the same range sentiment topped out at twice earlier this year and once in 2021.

Since the COVID drop in early 2020, we've yet to regain the sentiment levels of 2018-19, which peaked around 115 before plummeting to just above 80.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 Some interesting prediction markets rolling out of late...

Another government shutdown for the end of January?

Yes please.

🎱 I N T E L R U N N E R 🎱

🇺🇸 Here's the prediction market for a U.S. bank failure by January 31st.

Mostly it's been bouncing around between 5 and 15 percent for the past few weeks.

What's that spike to 74 percent a couple days ago though? Hm?

Who knows something?

Is this why not-QE QE has started up again?

🔮 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔮

🇺🇸 YouGov's Latest Favorability Poll for the Democratic Party

✅ Favorable – 34%

❌ Unfavorable – 64%

Favorable–Unfavorable 🟰-30

That's the lowest favorability recorded in YouGov history.

That said, the Dems are still pulling all of the generic ballots for 2026. If that's not a loud & clear message for the RNC...

I don't know what is.

🇺🇸 I N T E L R U N N E R 🇺🇸

🇺🇸 The PNC Christmas Price Index tracks the price of the gifts from the song "The 12 Days of Christmas." And now we'll cover the YoY change in its components.

The overall index increased 4.5% YoY, but we already discussed that and the "True Cost of Christmas" (the cumulative price of every gift or set of gifts in the song multiplied by every time it's mentioned in the song) being $218,542.98.

The 2 turtle doves, 3 French hens, 4 calling birds, 7 swans-a-swimming, and 8 maids-a-milking all remained static in price since Christmas 2024—0% increase.

The music bumped slightly; 11 pipers piping and 12 drummers drumming cost 2.2% more YoY. 6 geese-a-laying is up 3.3%. And our 9 dancing ladies raised prices 3.5%.

Now inflation rears its ugly head. 10 lords-a-leaping will run you 8.1% more than last year. A partridge in a pear tree's jumped 13.5% over the 2024 price.

And, unsurprisingly, buyers of 5 gold rings suffered a 32.5% premium over last Christmas.

There is also a Core Christmas Price Index, but it just cuts out the swans for volatility...

The PNC Christmas Price Index has been tracked since Provident National Bank (PNC's predecessor) started it in 1984.

🎩 I N T E L R U N N E R 🎩

🇺🇸 Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Index

Housing prices are starting to pick up again...

🏡 I N T E L R U N N E R 🏡

🇺🇸 Credit Card Delinquency Rates by State

The South just isn't interested in paying.

Louisiana & Mississippi aren't screwing around.

A payment is considered delinquent once it's 30 days or more past due.

💳 I N T E L R U N N E R 💳

🇺🇸 The Percentage of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming Their Benchmarks (Annual)

They're underperforming their usual underperformance.

👎 I N T E L R U N N E R 👎

🇺🇸 Americans' Belief in Paranormal Phenomena (Gallup)

Interestingly, the more likely you were to go to church, the more skeptical you were likely to be about the paranormal...

The question format: For each of the following items I am going to read you, please tell me whether it is something you believe in, something you're not sure about, or something you don't believe in. How about — ?

👻 I N T E L R U N N E R 👻

🇺🇸 Employment Growth Has Weakened Considerably (ADP) [Monthly Change in US Private Employment, 000s]

Every day, it appears more and more likely that we will be grappling with a surge in unemployment before the resurgence of inflation.

Inflation has been cooling off again, but unemployment has been heating up, and we all know the enormous issue with underemployment that Americans are and have been facing.

Not to mention the statistical games that are played with people dropping out of the workforce or working multiple jobs...it's a whole lotta rose-colored glasses polish out there.

Whether people still have jobs is likely to be one of the most important factors to keep an eye on—especially regarding the real economy....

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊