INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Year-over-Year Inflation of Thanksgiving Staples (2019-2025)

"Haven't increased much"β€”shut up.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The PNC Christmas Price Index tracks the price of the items from the song "The 12 Days of Christmas."

The index increased 4.5% YoY. Buying each item from the list comes out to $51,476.12 for the 78 goods & services.

If you buy each item once for each time it occurs in the full song (a statistic known as "The True Cost of Christmas"), the total for the 364 gifts comes to $218,542.98 (a 4.4% YoY increase).

The PNC Christmas Price Index has been tracked since Provident National Bank (PNC's predecessor) started it in 1984.

Related Holiday Coverage
πŸ”€ YoY Inflation of Thanksgiving Staples
πŸ”€ The Most Affordable Grocery Stores for Thanksgiving Dinner
πŸ”€ The Best-Selling Christmas Trees & Production by State

πŸŽ„ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸŽ„
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INTELRUNNER
They've finally given up the ghost on tariff-induced inflation. We're back to pre-election inflation expectations...

This is likely exactly the wrong time to be thinking that, but these are people who take the financial press seriously, so they get what's coming to them.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ So like I was saying in September and just recently with the swaps, inflation seems to be bottoming.

I know, I know; "but we got a 2.7% print for November!" You can read about the imputations & averages trick here.

Now we're seeing an inflationary impulse in imports & tariff-affected domestic goods. May be a sign of things to come. Granted, it's nothing too substantial yet...

πŸ˜‰ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ˜‰
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INTELRUNNER
That's been enough to produce a breakout from the old all-time-high levels established in 1989.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ This is the historical relationship between the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio & subsequent 10-year annualized returns.

The two are very negatively correlated. Were P/E ratios in the 10–13, we could expect 10–20% annualized returns. At 20–22, it's more like -2–5%.

We're at a P/E of 23.39 in $SPX. 10-year returns are almost all negative out here. The stock market may not be the refuge from inflation it has been...
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🌐 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌐
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Rise of Lab-Grown Diamonds

The chart shows the volume share of natural and lab-grown diamonds sold in U.S. jewelry stores.

Maybe next thing you know, they'll get all the way red-pilled and start buying gold again.

That was one of the great deceptions ever foisted on the masses by mass marketing & psychology. Exchanging appreciating assets for a severely inflated consumer item...

πŸ’Ž I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ’Ž
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INTELRUNNER
If you index the four to the start of 2021, it's clear palladium is the laggard. It's the only precious metal that has not yet entered price discovery.
🌐 We're not done yet in precious metals this year. Today:

Gold is up 1.27%. Silver is up another 9.87%. Platinum is up 10.34%.


And palladium (did someone say palladium?) is up 13.07%

Technically platinum is still up on silver YTD by about one percent. This was the signal in the silver & platinum leasing in July.

Both are outrunning the daily Bollingers now.

πŸ₯‡ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ₯‡
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ The price of rice is not so nice.
🌍 The futures price for rough rice has fallen to multi-decade support on strong U.S. inventories and quality issues abroad.

Something will have to give. $10/cwt is a tough price for producers who generally require $11-13 to break even.

High-quality U.S. growers (those who haven't suffered excess breakage from weather patterns of late) are still commanding a premium for their long-grain from Japan, Latin America, and the Caribbean as there are serious problems with other global supplies.

Prices for Vietnamese fragrant rice & Cambodian paddies have plummeted, including over quality concerns. Vietnamese exports were banned in the Philippines and Cambodian mills are struggling with basic benchmarks.

In India, the large market has struggled with insane levels of pesticide residues (Tricyclazole) and moisture control. African rice has been suffering from elevated levels of lead, arsenic, and cadmium.

Across South Asia, governments engage in intensive subsidy & support programs for their rice industries, which does put pressure on growers with fewer protections elsewhere, like the United States, but also likely contributes to the ongoing crisis in quality.

🍚 I N T E L R U N N E R 🍚
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INTELRUNNER
🀩 Ranking of Current top 10 Websites by Monthly Visits Worldwide, Desktop & Mobile Web, October 2023β€”September 2025
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Google Vs. Alibaba in Market Capitalization (2016–2025)

Back in 2020, as both stocks pumped on massive money supply enlargements and the declaration of a Brave New Electronic Age, Google was about twice the size of Alibaba. Then $GOOGL ripped with the rest of the Mag 7 and Jack Ma got kidnapped from $BABA in a fit of communist hubris.

Now they're back in the arena, sparring in the AI race as Alibaba's Qwen plays catch-up with Google's Gemini...

πŸ” I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ”
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Mortgage Payments vs. Rent as a % of Household Income (1970-2025)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Home Buyers & Sellers Are Both Pulling Back

That said, there are definitely more sellers.
The number of sellers began picking up again in 2023, but it's been mostly downhill this year.

The number of buyers hasn't recovered since it crashed in 2022 with the interest rate pivot. The only time there were fewer buyers was April 2020, and we are nearing those levels.

There's a little over a half million more sellers than buyers. This differential actually does exceed 2020, with 37.2% more sellers than buyers in the market.

🏚 I N T E L R U N N E R 🏚
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Polymarket odds for the 2028 Presidential Election in the United States…
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Polymarket odds for the 2028 Presidential Election in the United States.

Changes since September in parentheses (for the top 4):

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ J.D. Vance 31% (+4)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Gavin Newsom 18% (-4)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8% (+1)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Marco Rubio 3.9% (-1.1)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Donald Trump 3.6%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Kamala Harris 3.3%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Pete Buttigieg 2.6%

Other Updates: Andy Beshear & The Rock were #5 & #6, but they've fallen to 1.8% & 2.1% and #11 & #8. Wes Moore fell from #7 to #14, pulling only 1.4% today. Josh Shapiro is floating around somewhere in here with 1.9%.

Unfortunately, it's still largely a four-man race. Both sides appear to be desperately hoping for a dark horse of merit...

πŸ—³ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ—³
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INTELRUNNER
Unfortunately, it's still largely a four-man race. Both sides appear to be desperately hoping for a dark horse of merit...
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Kalshi odds for the 2028 Presidency are similar to the Polymarket ones.

The spread between Vance & Newsom is three points tighter. Rubio slides into 3rd with 8%, and AOC is bumped to 4th at 7%.

Trump finishes 5th again with 6%. Do people really consider this possible? Why? Who would support it? Maybe if he were actually fixing the country.

I guess it beats #6 in this one (Pritzker), but everything beats putting the mafia directly in office.

We desperately, desperately need someone with a pulse to throw his hat in...

πŸŽ‰ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸŽ‰
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INTELRUNNER
🌍 The World's 4.1 Billion Hectares of Forests, by Region

Europe is the most forested at 47%β€”they have a quarter of that total area.

Asia is the least forested at 20%.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Forest Cover Across the United States of America

🟩The USA has the 4th largest forest area in the world.

🟩By percentage, the most forested state is Maine (89%) and the least is North Dakota (2%). North Dakota is a lot of praires, farms, and sparsely covered, hardy trees like cottonwood or ash.

🟩By area, the least forested state is Delaware (despite 29% coverage) and the most forested state is Texas (despite 38% coverage).

🟩Alaska has the highest number of trees per capita among all U.S. states at 43,401 per person.

🌲 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌲
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INTELRUNNER
That means as far as Japanese auto exports are concerned, foreign exporters are paying into the tariffs...
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Value of China's motor vehicle exports, in billions of dollars

You can tariff them out of the advanced economies, but the developing world is probably lost. This is an especial problem for German firms...

🚘 I N T E L R U N N E R 🚘
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ America's Richest & Poorest States vs G7 Countries
(GDP per capita)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Quarterly GDP Growth (Annualized) in America

We have good news and bad news. The bad news is people are still taking GDP seriously.

Now for the good news: gross domestic product came in higher than anticipated (4.3% rather than 3.3%).

πŸŽ‰ Woohoo, more gross domestic productβ€”oh boy. πŸŽ‰ Let's eat! πŸŽ‰

Now that we got that out of the way, it's a great time to tell Howard Lutnick: fuck no, that does not mean every American got a 4.3% raise. In fact, it's historically correlated with smaller & smaller pieces of the pie for the vast majority of society.

Lutnick is the example par excellence of the man who is offensively stupid or, alternatively, the man who thinks you're so stupid that his manipulations are offensive.

πŸ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
Now for the good news: gross domestic product came in higher than anticipated (4.3% rather than 3.3%).

πŸŽ‰ Woohoo, more gross domestic product
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US Real GDP by Contribution

Let's take a closer look under the hood for the sake of Howard.

Exports are actually upβ€”mostly pharmaceutical preparations. It isn't just movement in imports. In fact, the trade deficit is at 5-year low.

Obviously the government is blowing money into existence, as it does. Why we count that in a productivity measure will always be beyond me...

The rest, essentially, is personal consumption. That could just be the standard top decile blowing cash, but it can also be new credit card spending. It could be inflation chewing into savings.

But it's not a raise for all Americans, and you should be insulted Jeffrey Epstein's neighbor tried to pass that off on you...

πŸ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“Š
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πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡΄ In Somalia, we have the aspiring new nation of Somaliland.

No one has recognized it except for Israel, who I assume wants to export people there, among other nuisances.

That's a lot of turf for a random breakaway province though. It would be kind of impressive if it wasn't Somalia...

⭕️ I N T E L R U N N E R ⭕️
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INTELRUNNER
You can get the casual dining takeout faster than a drive-thru during anything but the slowest periods. It will taste better than fast food, they will be less likely to screw the order up, and the pricing is competitive
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Scale of U.S. Food Trade

Main food products exported and imported by America in 2024 (in billions of U.S. dollars)...

🌽 I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ‡
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πŸ₯ˆ Silver's had one hell of a week.

πŸ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“‰
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