INTELRUNNER
Question: What is your opinion of the following movie? [Only adults who've seen the film]
The most loved films:
There's a committed 5% that really hate these movies. The most hated movie was Elf, followed by The Polar Express and Red One (whatever that is).
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INTELRUNNER
Look at Japan go. The other two are just stuckβGermany's even creeping toward the highs, compressing the treasury spread.
Higher for longer is looking like a safe bet. The cycle has turned.
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INTELRUNNER
This spread is narrowing again; it's down to 127 basis points mostly on the 10Y bund yield, which has risen to range highs.
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INTELRUNNER
"Haven't increased much"βshut up.
The index increased 4.5% YoY. Buying each item from the list comes out to $51,476.12 for the 78 goods & services.
If you buy each item once for each time it occurs in the full song (a statistic known as "The True Cost of Christmas"), the total for the 364 gifts comes to $218,542.98 (a 4.4% YoY increase).
The PNC Christmas Price Index has been tracked since Provident National Bank (PNC's predecessor) started it in 1984.
Related Holiday Coverage
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β€1
INTELRUNNER
They've finally given up the ghost on tariff-induced inflation. We're back to pre-election inflation expectations...
This is likely exactly the wrong time to be thinking that, but these are people who take the financial press seriously, so they get what's coming to them.
This is likely exactly the wrong time to be thinking that, but these are people who take the financial press seriously, so they get what's coming to them.
I know, I know; "but we got a 2.7% print for November!" You can read about the imputations & averages trick here.
Now we're seeing an inflationary impulse in imports & tariff-affected domestic goods. May be a sign of things to come. Granted, it's nothing too substantial yet...
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INTELRUNNER
That's been enough to produce a breakout from the old all-time-high levels established in 1989.
The two are very negatively correlated. Were P/E ratios in the 10β13, we could expect 10β20% annualized returns. At 20β22, it's more like -2β5%.
We're at a P/E of 23.39 in $SPX. 10-year returns are almost all negative out here. The stock market may not be the refuge from inflation it has been...
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The chart shows the volume share of natural and lab-grown diamonds sold in U.S. jewelry stores.
Maybe next thing you know, they'll get all the way red-pilled and start buying gold again.
That was one of the great deceptions ever foisted on the masses by mass marketing & psychology. Exchanging appreciating assets for a severely inflated consumer item...
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INTELRUNNER
If you index the four to the start of 2021, it's clear palladium is the laggard. It's the only precious metal that has not yet entered price discovery.
π We're not done yet in precious metals this year. Today:
Gold is up 1.27%. Silver is up another 9.87%. Platinum is up 10.34%.
And palladium (did someone say palladium?) is up 13.07%
Technically platinum is still up on silver YTD by about one percent. This was the signal in the silver & platinum leasing in July.
Both are outrunning the daily Bollingers now.
π₯ I N T E L R U N N E R π₯
Gold is up 1.27%. Silver is up another 9.87%. Platinum is up 10.34%.
And palladium (did someone say palladium?) is up 13.07%
Technically platinum is still up on silver YTD by about one percent. This was the signal in the silver & platinum leasing in July.
Both are outrunning the daily Bollingers now.
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INTELRUNNER
π―π΅ The price of rice is not so nice.
Something will have to give. $10/cwt is a tough price for producers who generally require $11-13 to break even.
High-quality U.S. growers (those who haven't suffered excess breakage from weather patterns of late) are still commanding a premium for their long-grain from Japan, Latin America, and the Caribbean as there are serious problems with other global supplies.
Prices for Vietnamese fragrant rice & Cambodian paddies have plummeted, including over quality concerns. Vietnamese exports were banned in the Philippines and Cambodian mills are struggling with basic benchmarks.
In India, the large market has struggled with insane levels of pesticide residues (Tricyclazole) and moisture control. African rice has been suffering from elevated levels of lead, arsenic, and cadmium.
Across South Asia, governments engage in intensive subsidy & support programs for their rice industries, which does put pressure on growers with fewer protections elsewhere, like the United States, but also likely contributes to the ongoing crisis in quality.
π I N T E L R U N N E R π
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INTELRUNNER
Back in 2020, as both stocks pumped on massive money supply enlargements and the declaration of a Brave New Electronic Age, Google was about twice the size of Alibaba. Then $GOOGL ripped with the rest of the Mag 7 and Jack Ma got kidnapped from $BABA in a fit of communist hubris.
Now they're back in the arena, sparring in the AI race as Alibaba's Qwen plays catch-up with Google's Gemini...
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INTELRUNNER
That said, there are definitely more sellers. The number of sellers began picking up again in 2023, but it's been mostly downhill this year.
The number of buyers hasn't recovered since it crashed in 2022 with the interest rate pivot. The only time there were fewer buyers was April 2020, and we are nearing those levels.
There's a little over a half million more sellers than buyers. This differential actually does exceed 2020, with 37.2% more sellers than buyers in the market.
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INTELRUNNER
Changes since September in parentheses (for the top 4):
Other Updates: Andy Beshear & The Rock were #5 & #6, but they've fallen to 1.8% & 2.1% and #11 & #8. Wes Moore fell from #7 to #14, pulling only 1.4% today. Josh Shapiro is floating around somewhere in here with 1.9%.
Unfortunately, it's still largely a four-man race. Both sides appear to be desperately hoping for a dark horse of merit...
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INTELRUNNER
Unfortunately, it's still largely a four-man race. Both sides appear to be desperately hoping for a dark horse of merit...
The spread between Vance & Newsom is three points tighter. Rubio slides into 3rd with 8%, and AOC is bumped to 4th at 7%.
Trump finishes 5th again with 6%. Do people really consider this possible? Why? Who would support it? Maybe if he were actually fixing the country.
I guess it beats #6 in this one (Pritzker), but everything beats putting the mafia directly in office.
We desperately, desperately need someone with a pulse to throw his hat in...
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INTELRUNNER
Europe is the most forested at 47%βthey have a quarter of that total area.
Asia is the least forested at 20%.
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INTELRUNNER
That means as far as Japanese auto exports are concerned, foreign exporters are paying into the tariffs...
You can tariff them out of the advanced economies, but the developing world is probably lost. This is an especial problem for German firms...
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INTELRUNNER
(GDP per capita)
We have good news and bad news. The bad news is people are still taking GDP seriously.
Now for the good news: gross domestic product came in higher than anticipated (4.3% rather than 3.3%).
Now that we got that out of the way, it's a great time to tell Howard Lutnick: fuck no, that does not mean every American got a 4.3% raise. In fact, it's historically correlated with smaller & smaller pieces of the pie for the vast majority of society.
Lutnick is the example par excellence of the man who is offensively stupid or, alternatively, the man who thinks you're so stupid that his manipulations are offensive.
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