INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐ŸŒ The World's 4.1 Billion Hectares of Forests, by Region
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Choice Evergreens โ€” 21.6M Christmas Tree Market by Breed

1๏ธโƒฃFraser Fir 35% (North Carolina)
2๏ธโƒฃDouglas Fir 27% (Pacific NW)
3๏ธโƒฃNoble Fir 17% (Pacific NW)
4๏ธโƒฃBalsam Fir 10% (Northeast)
5๏ธโƒฃScotch Pine 5% (Midwest)

Top Production By State

1๏ธโƒฃOregon โ€“ 31.9%
2๏ธโƒฃNorth Carolina โ€“ 21.3%
3๏ธโƒฃMichigan โ€“ 11.9%
4๏ธโƒฃWashington โ€“ 6.2%
5๏ธโƒฃPennsylvania โ€“ 4.8%

๐ŸŽ„ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŽ„
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Santa Rally is made up of the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 in January. The last couple years have been a bit flat to down. Are we due for a real rally? I suspect we'll either get the Santa Rally or we'll see a significant rallyโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Over 18,000 annual ER visits are linked to accidents with Christmas decorations.

Christmas decoration-related ER visits peak in the two weekends following Thanksgiving...

โ„๏ธ I N T E L R U N N E R โ„๏ธ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Over 18,000 annual ER visits are linked to accidents with Christmas decorations.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ How are people injured by Christmas decorations?

The biggest threat to toddlers is ingestion followed by chewing & swallowing. Essentially anything to do with their favorite orifice will risk holiday ER festivities.

When it comes to adults, it's all about the ladder, which is the greatest nemesis of fathers with Christmas spirit. "Hang" is a distant second.

๐Ÿ’ก ๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก
I N T E L R U N N E R
๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท Chatbot Accuracy by Model & Rates of Errors
๐ŸŒŽ Visualizing AI Competitiveness Across Countries: Stanford's AI Vibrancy Tool

Stanford University's AI Vibrancy Tool distills several metrics, from research output to talent attraction into a single view of how developed and competitive a country's AI ecosystem is. It's a snapshot of where innovation and talent is growing, and where governments are putting real weight behind AI.


The top three is clear:

๐Ÿฅ‰ India ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ€” 21.59

๐Ÿฅˆ China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ€” 36.95

๐Ÿฅ‡ America ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” 78.6

The USA also leads in 5 of 7 metrics.


High-income countries dominate the top ranks, reflecting deep investments in R&D, robust university systems and mature digital infrastructure. India is the only lower-middle-income country to break into the top 30, a sign of its expanding research base and large technical workforce. Brazil, China and Malaysia represent the upper-middle tier, each building out their Al capabilities with state-backed initiatives and growing private-sector activity.


๐Ÿ’ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’ป
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Choice Evergreens โ€” 21.6M Christmas Tree Market by Breed
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ America's Favorite Christmas Movies

Question: What is your opinion of the following movie? [Only adults who've seen the film]

The most loved films:

5๏ธโƒฃ Die Hard (48% love, 41% like, 7% hate)

4๏ธโƒฃ White Christmas (48% love, 43% like, 5% hate)

3๏ธโƒฃ Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (49% love, 44% like, 5% hate)

2๏ธโƒฃ A Charlie Brown Christmas (52% love, 39% like, 5% hate)

1๏ธโƒฃ Home Alone (56% love, 36% like, 5% hate)

There's a committed 5% that really hate these movies. The most hated movie was Elf, followed by The Polar Express and Red One (whatever that is).

๐ŸŽผ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŽผ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง U.K. Gilt Yields, 10- and 30-year.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 10-Year Government Bond Yields for America, Japan, and Germany

Look at Japan go. The other two are just stuckโ€”Germany's even creeping toward the highs, compressing the treasury spread.

Higher for longer is looking like a safe bet. The cycle has turned.

๐Ÿ”ค I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ค
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ The spread between United States and European Union (German) debt is down to 149bp (10Y) and 156bp (30Y), wiping away most of the Liberation Day bounce. I told you soโ€ฆ ๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช 10-Year American-German Government Bond Spread

This spread is narrowing again; it's down to 127 basis points mostly on the 10Y bund yield, which has risen to range highs.

๐Ÿ”ฃ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ฃ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Year-over-Year Inflation of Thanksgiving Staples (2019-2025)

"Haven't increased much"โ€”shut up.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The PNC Christmas Price Index tracks the price of the items from the song "The 12 Days of Christmas."

The index increased 4.5% YoY. Buying each item from the list comes out to $51,476.12 for the 78 goods & services.

If you buy each item once for each time it occurs in the full song (a statistic known as "The True Cost of Christmas"), the total for the 364 gifts comes to $218,542.98 (a 4.4% YoY increase).

The PNC Christmas Price Index has been tracked since Provident National Bank (PNC's predecessor) started it in 1984.

Related Holiday Coverage
๐Ÿ”ค YoY Inflation of Thanksgiving Staples
๐Ÿ”ค The Most Affordable Grocery Stores for Thanksgiving Dinner
๐Ÿ”ค The Best-Selling Christmas Trees & Production by State

๐ŸŽ„ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŽ„
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โค1
INTELRUNNER
They've finally given up the ghost on tariff-induced inflation. We're back to pre-election inflation expectations...

This is likely exactly the wrong time to be thinking that, but these are people who take the financial press seriously, so they get what's coming to them.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ So like I was saying in September and just recently with the swaps, inflation seems to be bottoming.

I know, I know; "but we got a 2.7% print for November!" You can read about the imputations & averages trick here.

Now we're seeing an inflationary impulse in imports & tariff-affected domestic goods. May be a sign of things to come. Granted, it's nothing too substantial yet...

๐Ÿ˜‰ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ˜‰
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INTELRUNNER
That's been enough to produce a breakout from the old all-time-high levels established in 1989.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ This is the historical relationship between the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio & subsequent 10-year annualized returns.

The two are very negatively correlated. Were P/E ratios in the 10โ€“13, we could expect 10โ€“20% annualized returns. At 20โ€“22, it's more like -2โ€“5%.

We're at a P/E of 23.39 in $SPX. 10-year returns are almost all negative out here. The stock market may not be the refuge from inflation it has been...
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๐ŸŒ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŒ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Rise of Lab-Grown Diamonds

The chart shows the volume share of natural and lab-grown diamonds sold in U.S. jewelry stores.

Maybe next thing you know, they'll get all the way red-pilled and start buying gold again.

That was one of the great deceptions ever foisted on the masses by mass marketing & psychology. Exchanging appreciating assets for a severely inflated consumer item...

๐Ÿ’Ž I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’Ž
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INTELRUNNER
If you index the four to the start of 2021, it's clear palladium is the laggard. It's the only precious metal that has not yet entered price discovery.
๐ŸŒ We're not done yet in precious metals this year. Today:

Gold is up 1.27%. Silver is up another 9.87%. Platinum is up 10.34%.


And palladium (did someone say palladium?) is up 13.07%

Technically platinum is still up on silver YTD by about one percent. This was the signal in the silver & platinum leasing in July.

Both are outrunning the daily Bollingers now.

๐Ÿฅ‡ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿฅ‡
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต The price of rice is not so nice.
๐ŸŒ The futures price for rough rice has fallen to multi-decade support on strong U.S. inventories and quality issues abroad.

Something will have to give. $10/cwt is a tough price for producers who generally require $11-13 to break even.

High-quality U.S. growers (those who haven't suffered excess breakage from weather patterns of late) are still commanding a premium for their long-grain from Japan, Latin America, and the Caribbean as there are serious problems with other global supplies.

Prices for Vietnamese fragrant rice & Cambodian paddies have plummeted, including over quality concerns. Vietnamese exports were banned in the Philippines and Cambodian mills are struggling with basic benchmarks.

In India, the large market has struggled with insane levels of pesticide residues (Tricyclazole) and moisture control. African rice has been suffering from elevated levels of lead, arsenic, and cadmium.

Across South Asia, governments engage in intensive subsidy & support programs for their rice industries, which does put pressure on growers with fewer protections elsewhere, like the United States, but also likely contributes to the ongoing crisis in quality.

๐Ÿš I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿš
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿคฉ Ranking of Current top 10 Websites by Monthly Visits Worldwide, Desktop & Mobile Web, October 2023โ€”September 2025
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Google Vs. Alibaba in Market Capitalization (2016โ€“2025)

Back in 2020, as both stocks pumped on massive money supply enlargements and the declaration of a Brave New Electronic Age, Google was about twice the size of Alibaba. Then $GOOGL ripped with the rest of the Mag 7 and Jack Ma got kidnapped from $BABA in a fit of communist hubris.

Now they're back in the arena, sparring in the AI race as Alibaba's Qwen plays catch-up with Google's Gemini...

๐Ÿ” I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Mortgage Payments vs. Rent as a % of Household Income (1970-2025)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Home Buyers & Sellers Are Both Pulling Back

That said, there are definitely more sellers.
The number of sellers began picking up again in 2023, but it's been mostly downhill this year.

The number of buyers hasn't recovered since it crashed in 2022 with the interest rate pivot. The only time there were fewer buyers was April 2020, and we are nearing those levels.

There's a little over a half million more sellers than buyers. This differential actually does exceed 2020, with 37.2% more sellers than buyers in the market.

๐Ÿš I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿš
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Polymarket odds for the 2028 Presidential Election in the United Statesโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Polymarket odds for the 2028 Presidential Election in the United States.

Changes since September in parentheses (for the top 4):

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ J.D. Vance 31% (+4)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Gavin Newsom 18% (-4)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8% (+1)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Marco Rubio 3.9% (-1.1)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Donald Trump 3.6%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Kamala Harris 3.3%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Pete Buttigieg 2.6%

Other Updates: Andy Beshear & The Rock were #5 & #6, but they've fallen to 1.8% & 2.1% and #11 & #8. Wes Moore fell from #7 to #14, pulling only 1.4% today. Josh Shapiro is floating around somewhere in here with 1.9%.

Unfortunately, it's still largely a four-man race. Both sides appear to be desperately hoping for a dark horse of merit...

๐Ÿ—ณ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ—ณ
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