INTELRUNNER
Top Production By State
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Christmas decoration-related ER visits peak in the two weekends following Thanksgiving...
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The biggest threat to toddlers is ingestion followed by chewing & swallowing. Essentially anything to do with their favorite orifice will risk holiday ER festivities.
When it comes to adults, it's all about the ladder, which is the greatest nemesis of fathers with Christmas spirit. "Hang" is a distant second.
I N T E L R U N N E R
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INTELRUNNER
Stanford University's AI Vibrancy Tool distills several metrics, from research output to talent attraction into a single view of how developed and competitive a country's AI ecosystem is. It's a snapshot of where innovation and talent is growing, and where governments are putting real weight behind AI.
The top three is clear:
The USA also leads in 5 of 7 metrics.
High-income countries dominate the top ranks, reflecting deep investments in R&D, robust university systems and mature digital infrastructure. India is the only lower-middle-income country to break into the top 30, a sign of its expanding research base and large technical workforce. Brazil, China and Malaysia represent the upper-middle tier, each building out their Al capabilities with state-backed initiatives and growing private-sector activity.
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INTELRUNNER
Question: What is your opinion of the following movie? [Only adults who've seen the film]
The most loved films:
There's a committed 5% that really hate these movies. The most hated movie was Elf, followed by The Polar Express and Red One (whatever that is).
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INTELRUNNER
Look at Japan go. The other two are just stuckโGermany's even creeping toward the highs, compressing the treasury spread.
Higher for longer is looking like a safe bet. The cycle has turned.
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INTELRUNNER
This spread is narrowing again; it's down to 127 basis points mostly on the 10Y bund yield, which has risen to range highs.
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INTELRUNNER
"Haven't increased much"โshut up.
The index increased 4.5% YoY. Buying each item from the list comes out to $51,476.12 for the 78 goods & services.
If you buy each item once for each time it occurs in the full song (a statistic known as "The True Cost of Christmas"), the total for the 364 gifts comes to $218,542.98 (a 4.4% YoY increase).
The PNC Christmas Price Index has been tracked since Provident National Bank (PNC's predecessor) started it in 1984.
Related Holiday Coverage
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INTELRUNNER
They've finally given up the ghost on tariff-induced inflation. We're back to pre-election inflation expectations...
This is likely exactly the wrong time to be thinking that, but these are people who take the financial press seriously, so they get what's coming to them.
This is likely exactly the wrong time to be thinking that, but these are people who take the financial press seriously, so they get what's coming to them.
I know, I know; "but we got a 2.7% print for November!" You can read about the imputations & averages trick here.
Now we're seeing an inflationary impulse in imports & tariff-affected domestic goods. May be a sign of things to come. Granted, it's nothing too substantial yet...
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That's been enough to produce a breakout from the old all-time-high levels established in 1989.
The two are very negatively correlated. Were P/E ratios in the 10โ13, we could expect 10โ20% annualized returns. At 20โ22, it's more like -2โ5%.
We're at a P/E of 23.39 in $SPX. 10-year returns are almost all negative out here. The stock market may not be the refuge from inflation it has been...
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The chart shows the volume share of natural and lab-grown diamonds sold in U.S. jewelry stores.
Maybe next thing you know, they'll get all the way red-pilled and start buying gold again.
That was one of the great deceptions ever foisted on the masses by mass marketing & psychology. Exchanging appreciating assets for a severely inflated consumer item...
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INTELRUNNER
If you index the four to the start of 2021, it's clear palladium is the laggard. It's the only precious metal that has not yet entered price discovery.
๐ We're not done yet in precious metals this year. Today:
Gold is up 1.27%. Silver is up another 9.87%. Platinum is up 10.34%.
And palladium (did someone say palladium?) is up 13.07%
Technically platinum is still up on silver YTD by about one percent. This was the signal in the silver & platinum leasing in July.
Both are outrunning the daily Bollingers now.
๐ฅ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ฅ
Gold is up 1.27%. Silver is up another 9.87%. Platinum is up 10.34%.
And palladium (did someone say palladium?) is up 13.07%
Technically platinum is still up on silver YTD by about one percent. This was the signal in the silver & platinum leasing in July.
Both are outrunning the daily Bollingers now.
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INTELRUNNER
๐ฏ๐ต The price of rice is not so nice.
Something will have to give. $10/cwt is a tough price for producers who generally require $11-13 to break even.
High-quality U.S. growers (those who haven't suffered excess breakage from weather patterns of late) are still commanding a premium for their long-grain from Japan, Latin America, and the Caribbean as there are serious problems with other global supplies.
Prices for Vietnamese fragrant rice & Cambodian paddies have plummeted, including over quality concerns. Vietnamese exports were banned in the Philippines and Cambodian mills are struggling with basic benchmarks.
In India, the large market has struggled with insane levels of pesticide residues (Tricyclazole) and moisture control. African rice has been suffering from elevated levels of lead, arsenic, and cadmium.
Across South Asia, governments engage in intensive subsidy & support programs for their rice industries, which does put pressure on growers with fewer protections elsewhere, like the United States, but also likely contributes to the ongoing crisis in quality.
๐ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐
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INTELRUNNER
Back in 2020, as both stocks pumped on massive money supply enlargements and the declaration of a Brave New Electronic Age, Google was about twice the size of Alibaba. Then $GOOGL ripped with the rest of the Mag 7 and Jack Ma got kidnapped from $BABA in a fit of communist hubris.
Now they're back in the arena, sparring in the AI race as Alibaba's Qwen plays catch-up with Google's Gemini...
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INTELRUNNER
That said, there are definitely more sellers. The number of sellers began picking up again in 2023, but it's been mostly downhill this year.
The number of buyers hasn't recovered since it crashed in 2022 with the interest rate pivot. The only time there were fewer buyers was April 2020, and we are nearing those levels.
There's a little over a half million more sellers than buyers. This differential actually does exceed 2020, with 37.2% more sellers than buyers in the market.
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INTELRUNNER
Changes since September in parentheses (for the top 4):
Other Updates: Andy Beshear & The Rock were #5 & #6, but they've fallen to 1.8% & 2.1% and #11 & #8. Wes Moore fell from #7 to #14, pulling only 1.4% today. Josh Shapiro is floating around somewhere in here with 1.9%.
Unfortunately, it's still largely a four-man race. Both sides appear to be desperately hoping for a dark horse of merit...
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