INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Job Openings Divided By Unemployed Workers Currently at a value of 1.01, the ratio has stabilized... ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ป
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The current cycle has been the slowest increase in unemployment since 1950.

Of course that's ignoring U6 screaming higher and the labor force participation rate being seemingly unable to find a footing.

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Bloomberg Fed Statement Sentiment indicator is diving toward the dovish side.

As a matter of fact, we're reaching 2020 levels of dovishness...
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Goldman Sachs U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator is on the brink of "stretched positioning" for the first time since this time last year.

We're definitely still risk-on for the moment...

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ On Friday & Monday, Huntington Ingalls Industries jumped a total of 9.35% on the news that Trump's continued push to rebuild the Navy would include an initiative to build two new Trump-class battleships and to purchase 20-25 of them over the coming years.

These 30,000-40,000 ton ships will carry a large quantity of missiles, including hypersonic missiles, and will also be outfitted with electromagnetic rail guns and directed energy lasers.

Trump-class battleships will also carry nuclear-armed sea launched cruise missiles (currently under development) adding an additional element of nuclear deterrence to the Navy. Trump-class destroyers appear to be designed as the center of enhanced command and control networks at sea, as the Navy looks to field more autonomous assets and traditional vessels in the coming years.

The WSJ has reported that the U.S. Navy will launch a vendor competition, with plans to procure the first hull in 2030.


$HII is up 91% YTD.

๐Ÿ•ฏ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ•ฏ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Flows into cyclical & defensive equity fundsโ€ฆ ๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
๐ŸŒŽ Globally, defensives are back at support (about 16%).

This is the same level they bounced at in 2000 when Dotcom started bursting.

๐Ÿ“‰ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Cyclical stocks lead the breakout list...

The technology ($XLK), financial ($XLF), and industrial ($XLI) sectors saw at least 10% of their equities hitting 52-week highs.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ No surprise the Cyclicalsโ€“Defensives Positioning is trending toward defensives then.

Cyclicals are made up of Industrial Cyclicals, Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Energy, and Materials
๏ปฟ
Defensives are composed of the Utilities, Real Estate, Healthcare, Telecom, and Consumer Staples sectors, plus restaurants.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Santa Rally is made up of the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 in January.

The last couple years have been a bit flat to down. Are we due for a real rally?

I suspect we'll either get the Santa Rally or we'll see a significant rally in January...

๐Ÿ˜ฑ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ˜ฑ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The S&P 500 Volatility Index is at its lowest price year-to-date.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The last time the S&P Volatility Index went this low, it was December 13th, 2024. The $VIX is reading $14.01 as it stands, but it dipped under $14 intraday.

In the very short-term, this calm makes way for the Santa Claus Rally. It also generates some cause for caution:

โ–ซ๏ธ$14 is about 30% below the $VIX's long-run average of 20, suggesting unusually low volatility.

โ–ซ๏ธThe market is in contango with the futures contract trading nearer $17. This suggests a comfort with the current volatility outlook.

โ–ซ๏ธThat comfort could turn to complacency. A drop below 12 would signal that; so would the $VIX stagnating in the mid-teens while the futures contract climbs.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The last time the S&P Volatility Index went this low, it was December 13th, 2024. The $VIX is reading $14.01 as it stands, but it dipped under $14 intraday. In the very short-term, this calm makes way for the Santa Claus Rally. It also generates some causeโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The S&P Volatility Index has shed 47% in 33 days, falling from a close of $26.41 on November 20th to a close of $14.01 today.

โ–ซ๏ธ$14 is in the bottom decile of its 10-year range. 70% of VIX readings under $15 presaged a $SPY drawdown greater than or equal to 3% within 10 trading days. This is one of several applicable statistics indicating a correction in the near-term.

โ–ซ๏ธHowever, when the $VIX drops from over 26 to under 14, the 3-month horizon tends to be good.

โ–ซ๏ธA flattening or a dip in the near-term futures contract may signal an imminent reversal.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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The performance of largest metals markets has been strong year to dateโ€ฆ

Platinum is leading, up 63%. Copper has gained 43%, silver 36%, and finally gold at 31%.
๐ŸŒ The precious metals market has taken off (as anticipated) this year. Universal debasement, central banks purchasing en masse, and the Shanghai gold strategy are changing the game. Gone are the days of relentless suppression of the gold price by Western financiers and governments.

Gold is up 70.37% YTD. Silver is up a whopping 140.11%. Platinum just rocketed 150.28%. And palladium is up 121.52%.

If you index the four to the start of 2021, it's clear palladium is the laggard. It's the only precious metal that has not yet entered price discovery.

๐Ÿฅ‡ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿฅˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ President Trump dropped a truth yesterday afternoon asking pharmaceutical companies to bring down prices in America. Evidently substantial portions of the world are paying much less.
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharmaceutical conglomerate, gapped up 7.3% yesterday on the approval of the pill version of Wegovy, their weight loss (among other applications) drug.

Novo Nordisk trades under the ADR $NVO, which is down 42% YoY. Compounded revenue growth has averaged 15% YoY over the last 4 quarters. Most of 2024-5 saw net margins between 33% and 39% as well as an industry-leading gross margin of 85%.

The January launch of the Wegovy pill will give $NVO a head start on the needle-averse marginal customer. Eli Lilly's ($LLY) orforglipron is still awaiting a green light, which is great for $NVO because $LLY chewed into their market share this year.

Orforglipron should get approval around March-April 2026, so $NVO will have at least the first quarter to try to make headway. After that, it'll probably come down to reimbursement terms and competitive negotiations with PBMs & government payers.

They may get approval for a higher-dose version (7.2mg) soon, and they also have early-stage GIP/GLP-1 co-agonist and once-weekly insulin products in the pipeline. They've laid off 9,000 employees and introduced new manufacturing lines in the U.S. & Europe.

$NVO is $51.61 at the moment. With their outstanding margins, their aggressive cost rationalization, and this opportunity to grab early market share in oral GLP-1s, their prospects seem strong. It could easily double, but it should rally to the mid-60s no problem.

This is in no way, shape, or form financial advice...

๐Ÿ™† I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ™†
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Time to check in on Trump Tariffs 1.0 vs. 2.0 againโ€ฆ

Still sitting slightly better off than the last go around, but after a much deeper drawdown.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Time to check in on Trump Tariffs 1.0 vs. 2.0 againโ€ฆbut this time it's a little different.

Rather than the stock market, we're looking at the path of the Dollarโ€”the U.S. Dollar Index or Dixie. So far, it's mirroring pretty closely, isn't it? This isn't just happenstance.

Trump is a tariff and stimulus man. Stimulus (supposedly) means economic growth and that the Fed is likely to tighten policy, buoying the Dollar. When the tariffs are introduced, the market takes a beating, directing more flows toward the Dollar for safety positioning.

Then come the actual tariffs, all the chaos that comes with their implementation, and the historic deficits, which all contribute to subsequent weakness in the Dollar. Then come the neocons he insists on unleashing, weaponizing the Dollar and delegitimizing American leadership in any way they know how. This drives more and more of the world to sell Dollars.

It's no surprise the charts look the same when the policies are re-heated 2017.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
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๐ŸŒ The World's 4.1 Billion Hectares of Forests, by Region
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Choice Evergreens โ€” 21.6M Christmas Tree Market by Breed

1๏ธโƒฃFraser Fir 35% (North Carolina)
2๏ธโƒฃDouglas Fir 27% (Pacific NW)
3๏ธโƒฃNoble Fir 17% (Pacific NW)
4๏ธโƒฃBalsam Fir 10% (Northeast)
5๏ธโƒฃScotch Pine 5% (Midwest)

Top Production By State

1๏ธโƒฃOregon โ€“ 31.9%
2๏ธโƒฃNorth Carolina โ€“ 21.3%
3๏ธโƒฃMichigan โ€“ 11.9%
4๏ธโƒฃWashington โ€“ 6.2%
5๏ธโƒฃPennsylvania โ€“ 4.8%

๐ŸŽ„ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŽ„
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Santa Rally is made up of the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 in January. The last couple years have been a bit flat to down. Are we due for a real rally? I suspect we'll either get the Santa Rally or we'll see a significant rallyโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Over 18,000 annual ER visits are linked to accidents with Christmas decorations.

Christmas decoration-related ER visits peak in the two weekends following Thanksgiving...

โ„๏ธ I N T E L R U N N E R โ„๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Over 18,000 annual ER visits are linked to accidents with Christmas decorations.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ How are people injured by Christmas decorations?

The biggest threat to toddlers is ingestion followed by chewing & swallowing. Essentially anything to do with their favorite orifice will risk holiday ER festivities.

When it comes to adults, it's all about the ladder, which is the greatest nemesis of fathers with Christmas spirit. "Hang" is a distant second.

๐Ÿ’ก ๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก
I N T E L R U N N E R
๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก๐Ÿ’ก
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท Chatbot Accuracy by Model & Rates of Errors
๐ŸŒŽ Visualizing AI Competitiveness Across Countries: Stanford's AI Vibrancy Tool

Stanford University's AI Vibrancy Tool distills several metrics, from research output to talent attraction into a single view of how developed and competitive a country's AI ecosystem is. It's a snapshot of where innovation and talent is growing, and where governments are putting real weight behind AI.


The top three is clear:

๐Ÿฅ‰ India ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ€” 21.59

๐Ÿฅˆ China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ€” 36.95

๐Ÿฅ‡ America ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” 78.6

The USA also leads in 5 of 7 metrics.


High-income countries dominate the top ranks, reflecting deep investments in R&D, robust university systems and mature digital infrastructure. India is the only lower-middle-income country to break into the top 30, a sign of its expanding research base and large technical workforce. Brazil, China and Malaysia represent the upper-middle tier, each building out their Al capabilities with state-backed initiatives and growing private-sector activity.


๐Ÿ’ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ’ป
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Choice Evergreens โ€” 21.6M Christmas Tree Market by Breed
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ America's Favorite Christmas Movies

Question: What is your opinion of the following movie? [Only adults who've seen the film]

The most loved films:

5๏ธโƒฃ Die Hard (48% love, 41% like, 7% hate)

4๏ธโƒฃ White Christmas (48% love, 43% like, 5% hate)

3๏ธโƒฃ Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (49% love, 44% like, 5% hate)

2๏ธโƒฃ A Charlie Brown Christmas (52% love, 39% like, 5% hate)

1๏ธโƒฃ Home Alone (56% love, 36% like, 5% hate)

There's a committed 5% that really hate these movies. The most hated movie was Elf, followed by The Polar Express and Red One (whatever that is).

๐ŸŽผ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŽผ
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