🇯🇵 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) are officially yielding 2% for the first time in a long time.

The highest since 1998, in fact...

🔣 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔣

🇬🇧 Here's a seat estimate based on polling by Find Out NowUK on December 18th:

The Labour and Conservative parties, traditionally the big two, are getting destroyed. Ruling Labour would fall from 411 seats to 4.

Reform has exploded out to 394 seats—68 seats higher than the number required to form a single-party government outright.

💷 I N T E L R U N N E R 💷

🟠 Bitcoin has broken out of the falling wedge we observed on Friday.

It's re-testing the breakout now. Presuming that holds, I'd love to see the purple 50DMA ($93,180) surpassed as well.

That would be a bullish indication...

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 The Jobs-Workers Gap is sitting at a neutral 0%.

It is the difference between labor demand (the sum of job openings & civilian employment) and labor supply (civilian labor force).

👨‍💻 I N T E L R U N N E R 👨‍💻

🇺🇸 5-Year Oracle credit default swaps have widened to 141 basis points, the highest since 2009.

Capital expenditures are up 200% YoY, equaling $20.5 billion over the last two quarters. This has flipped free cash flow negative to -$10 billion. Total balance sheet debt has jumped 43%.

In September, they issued another $18 billion in multi-tranche bonds, with potentially up to $38 billion rumored to be coming. With rates at 5-7%, every new $10 billion in fresh borrowing adds $500-700 million in annual interest, compressing their coverage ratio. As it stands, they're only two places above junk, and further deterioration in net-debt-to-EBITDA could cause a downgrade.

They're issuing so much debt, they've been forced to stop buying stock back and start issuing it again. $ORCL trades at a 50%+ premium relative to legacy software peers; earnings slip-ups could induce multiple contraction.

They are also highly dependent on OpenAI's growth trajectory, so any stumbling out of Altman's crew will have serious downstream effects for Oracle (and numerous other tech titans).

Put simply, Oracle, like other major AI firms, is experiencing a severe incongruity between the amount of money leaving the shop and the amount coming in. How long before Ellison joins the bailout chorus?

📱 I N T E L R U N N E R 📱

🟠 Crypto stocks & Bitcoin treasury companies supplanted altcoins in the public consciousness as they underperformed Bitcoin by $800 billion this cycle.

Treasury companies like $MSTR have sucked up quite a bit of the oxygen within the ecosystem. Another stark observation comes from Korea, where retail traders were once the core altcoin market but now seem more interested in crypto stocks like $COIN.

Ethereum benefited from the one substantial relief period in Q3, but that's plainly over now. What does the future hold for altcoins?

🧬 I N T E L R U N N E R ❇️

🇺🇸 Oh, what a difference three months can make!

Not to be a Panican, but the orgy of Zionism and corruption that is the second Trump Administration has resulted in some nasty poll numbers.

I know, I know, they're all fake. Be that as it may, we return again to the highly accurate AtlasIntel and their polling from last week:

🔤If you review the Reuters-Ipsos polling I covered in early October, there was a similar question put to their sample. In it, the GOP had commanding leads in trust on crime, immigration, and foreign conflicts.

No more—they lead crime by one point, and that's their only edge on the Dems. On foreign policy, Dems lead by 12, and (terrifyingly) on immigration, they lead by 7.

🔤The Dems led on the environment by 14 before, now it's by 31. This is their best issue, followed by healthcare which has jumped from a 9 point differential to a 24 point one. They also have big leads in economic inequality (22 point spread), education (18 point spread), and "democracy" (18 point spread).

🔤The GOP is losing by 10 on taxation—taxation! They've opened up double digit shortfalls in all things economic, which is typically their wheelhouse (at least in the public's perception, relative to the DNC). Inflation is a 12 point spread, employment is a 13 point spread, and trade/tariffs is a 17 point spread.

The 2026 campaign will begin any day now, with the extremely important primary season coming up hot. The GOP has no time to right the ship and very little time to impress independents and the far right enough to recover electorally.

Unfortunately for every Republican on the bubble, the GOP seems blissfully unaware that any of this is going on. Of course they are aware; they're tasked with defusing this populist threat and preserving the better part of the work done to subvert the U.S. Constitution.

And thus far they've been quite successful, as you can see in the numbers. It takes real proficiency to blow a mandate this quickly despite accomplishing so little...

✔️ I N T E L R U N N E R ❌

🇺🇸 The current cycle has been the slowest increase in unemployment since 1950.

Of course that's ignoring U6 screaming higher and the labor force participation rate being seemingly unable to find a footing.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 See? This yawning gap between U6 and the 12-month change in hourly earnings points to the underlying weakness in this economy.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 The Goldman Sachs U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator is on the brink of "stretched positioning" for the first time since this time last year.

We're definitely still risk-on for the moment...

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 On Friday & Monday, Huntington Ingalls Industries jumped a total of 9.35% on the news that Trump's continued push to rebuild the Navy would include an initiative to build two new Trump-class battleships and to purchase 20-25 of them over the coming years.

These 30,000-40,000 ton ships will carry a large quantity of missiles, including hypersonic missiles, and will also be outfitted with electromagnetic rail guns and directed energy lasers.

Trump-class battleships will also carry nuclear-armed sea launched cruise missiles (currently under development) adding an additional element of nuclear deterrence to the Navy. Trump-class destroyers appear to be designed as the center of enhanced command and control networks at sea, as the Navy looks to field more autonomous assets and traditional vessels in the coming years.

The WSJ has reported that the U.S. Navy will launch a vendor competition, with plans to procure the first hull in 2030.

$HII is up 91% YTD.

🕯 I N T E L R U N N E R 🕯

🌎 Globally, defensives are back at support (about 16%).

This is the same level they bounced at in 2000 when Dotcom started bursting.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 No surprise the Cyclicals–Defensives Positioning is trending toward defensives then.

Cyclicals are made up of Industrial Cyclicals, Consumer Cyclicals, Financials, Energy, and Materials

Defensives are composed of the Utilities, Real Estate, Healthcare, Telecom, and Consumer Staples sectors, plus restaurants.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 The Santa Rally is made up of the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 in January.

The last couple years have been a bit flat to down. Are we due for a real rally?

I suspect we'll either get the Santa Rally or we'll see a significant rally in January...

😱 I N T E L R U N N E R 😱

🇺🇸 S&P 500 and its Sectors' Performance during Santa Claus Rally

🎅 I N T E L R U N N E R 🎅

🇺🇸 The S&P Volatility Index has shed 47% in 33 days, falling from a close of $26.41 on November 20th to a close of $14.01 today.

▫️$14 is in the bottom decile of its 10-year range. 70% of VIX readings under $15 presaged a $SPY drawdown greater than or equal to 3% within 10 trading days. This is one of several applicable statistics indicating a correction in the near-term.

▫️However, when the $VIX drops from over 26 to under 14, the 3-month horizon tends to be good.

▫️A flattening or a dip in the near-term futures contract may signal an imminent reversal.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🌐 The precious metals market has taken off (as anticipated) this year. Universal debasement, central banks purchasing en masse, and the Shanghai gold strategy are changing the game. Gone are the days of relentless suppression of the gold price by Western financiers and governments.

Gold is up 70.37% YTD. Silver is up a whopping 140.11%. Platinum just rocketed 150.28%. And palladium is up 121.52%.

If you index the four to the start of 2021, it's clear palladium is the laggard. It's the only precious metal that has not yet entered price discovery.

🥇 I N T E L R U N N E R 🥈