🌎 The Colors of the Year (2015–2026)

This is according to numerous paint companies who increasingly make a practice of declaring a color of the year.

🖌 I N T E L R U N N E R 🖌

🪙 Whales have accumulated 269,822 BTC (worth $23.3 billion) over the past 30 days.

This is the largest accumulation in history in this cohort in 13 years.

🐋 I N T E L R U N N E R 🐋

🇺🇸 All Federal Payrolls, Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted

Federal payrolls are at their lowest since the tail end of the Obama Administration. Credit where credit is due, but it's nothing but temporary relief without structural reform.

Let us hope that (1) someone convinces Trump to deploy the bully pulpit against Congress for something actually beneficial to the country and (2) that the Supreme Court delivers a knockout blow to the unconstitutional 4th branch of government: "independent" agencies.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 "2.7% inflation!"

Desperation ensues as the Trump Administration dumps a YoY inflation print on us cobbled together with imputations and averaging. We are even more firmly in the realm of assumption, rather than observation, than we normally are. Observation in the form of field interviews only resumed November 14th.

Practically, this means spikes in energy & pre-Thanksgiving airfare are likely undercounted, and Black Friday savings are likely overcounted. It must be noted that they imputed a 0% change in shelter for October, and shelter being one-third of the core CPI, their 2.6% YoY print there looks a little more dubious.

Here's how they did it: the 0% housing figure likely saved them 1-2 tenths, and the base effect of October 2024 (+0.39%) & November 2024 (+0.45%) rolling off is shaving roughly 0.57% off the final YoY number.

This means CPI likely should still be stuck at roughly 3% and perhaps slightly higher. As we enter the new year, the quality should improve, culminating in a much clearer, much less ambiguous & manipulated reading in March 2026.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 If you refer to the predictions made by major firms, you will see my rough re-calculation lines up with what they were anticipating themselves.

That's because that's probably where the number should be.

As it stands, it's the biggest miss in the data stretching back to 2010—by a country mile. That alone should tell you I have a point.

🔤 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔤

🔤 Bitcoin is down 9.44% YTD.

Against the S&P 500, it's down 21.34%. Against gold, it's down 45.12%.

That said, whales are buying while retail dumps, the money supply has been growing, and changes in the Fed's balance sheet are going to be net positive soon.

🌐 I N T E L R U N N E R 🤩

🌐 Gold hit $4,400/ounce for the first time in history.

🥇 I N T E L R U N N E R 🥇

🟠 Bitcoin is probably nearing the tail end of this falling wedge.

Some amount of upside is likely.

But not financial advice...

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 3- and 6-month rate of change for Supercore CPI (all items less everything—kidding).

Supercore includes all items save food, shelter, energy, and used cars & trucks. Therefore, it was likely far less affected by the imputations & averages discussed yesterday. Maybe half a tenth.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇪🇺 Low-Volatility Inflation Measures in Europe Have Stabilized

Core & Supercore inflation have been at 2.5% (with the most volatile categories stripped out). Low-volatility inflation itself is stuck at 2%.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🌐 Human Flight and Brain Drain

Where High-Skilled Workers Prefer to Leave and Where to Stay

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 The prediction market for the Democratic nominee in 2028 shows strength continuing to rally for Gavin Newsom.

Are we really doing this?

🇺🇸 I N T E L R U N N E R 🇺🇸

🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales by Region

Compared to a month ago, sales rose 4.1% m/m in the Northeast, increased 1.1% m/m in the South, were unchanged in the West and fell 2.0% m/m in the Midwest. Compared to a year ago, sales were unchanged in both the Northeast and the South, fell 3.0% y/y in the Midwest and declined 1.3% y/y in the West.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) declined 1.4% m/m (+1.2% y/y) to $409,200 in November. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.4% m/m (+1.2% y/y) to $414,300 in November. Prices of single-family homes in the Northeast edged up 0.9% from a year ago. Prices in the Midwest jumped 5.8% y/y; prices in the South rose 1.0% y/y. In contrast, prices in the West declined 0.8% from a year ago.

🏡 I N T E L R U N N E R 🏡

🇺🇸 Advance-Decline Lines for Large, Medium, and Small Caps

Look decent...

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Expectations

Overall in bold black, Democrats in blue, and Republicans in red...

That's the thing. Really it's black & blue following the mainstream corporate press and its partisan pessimism, and then red following the conservative corporate press/MAGA influencers and their obscene optimism.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales, Median Sales Price of Existing Homes, and the Percent YoY on the Median Sales Price

🏡 I N T E L R U N N E R 🏡

🇺🇸 The NASDAQ 100 ($QQQ) vs. the inverted MOVE Index ($MOVE)

Good to see bond volatility falling. Definitely a positive for the NASDAQ.

The MOVE index is like the VIX of U.S. treasuries; it measures bond market volatility. Inverting it tracks $QQQ particularly well because technology companies are so sensitive to changes in interest rates.

📈 INTELRUNNER 📈

🤑 $GBTC US Equity Relative Performance, 63 Trading Days Forward, based on 65-Day Bitcoin ETF Flows (10) 2015–2025

A bullish signal occurs when Bitcoin ETF flows slide beneath the 10th percentile; likewise, a bearish signal occurs at the 90th percentile.

The historical accuracy on the bullish signal is excellent, coming in at 85% wins for an average return of 89% over the subsequent 63 trading days.

We just experienced one such signal on the 17th. Therefore, we would expect substantial upside by mid-March.

🐵🦧🍉🍊

Not financial advice at all....

🌐 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌐

🇺🇸 President Trump's Approval-Disapproval Ratings from AtlasIntel — Trump is on the brink of a 60-40 rating! Disapproval is pushing 60%, and approval is already sub-40%. An enormous gap has opened up over the past two months.

As you can see in the post I'm replying to, this sort of approval rating is fairly common at this point in a second term presidency. Bush & Obama were similarly disliked. Here's some insights from the demographic breakdown:

🛑The age divide is substantial. Over the age of 45, disapproval barely leads. The spread is much closer to 2-3.5 points.

🛑The $50-100K income tier remains the most supportive of Trump, coming in at 47%-51%. By contrast, over $100K 38%-61% and under $50K is over 2-to-1 disapproving.

🛑16% of Republican voters have turned on the GOP President and now disapprove of the job he's doing. Moreover, almost 13% of Trump voters disapprove. For Trump, the midterms largely depend on convincing these voters he's not the liar, backstabber, and whore he very much appears to be.

✅ I N T E L R U N N E R ❌

🌍 The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in December 19th:

🥉 Gold 🥇 (+1.4%)

🥈 Industrial Metals 🔩 (+1.9%)

🥇 British Equities 🇬🇧 (+2.7%)

🔽 Ethereum 🔷 (-3.5%), Japanese Equites 🇯🇵 (-2.5%), Bitcoin 💰 (-2.4%)

🔼 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔽

🇺🇸 Inflation-Adjusted Console Launch Prices Since 1972

🎮 I N T E L R U N N E R 🎮