🇺🇸 October to November Change in Americans' Holiday Spending Plans

Americans are cutting back on holiday spending according to Gallup polling. People say "more than 2008," but dollars were worth a lot more in 2008, and never forget it.

They said they'd spend an average of $778 on gifts this year. This is $234 lower than last year’s November spending expectations of $1,012.

You should think of this as an early price of stagflation and a rogue government.

🎄 I N T E L R U N N E R 🎄

🌍 The World's 4.1 Billion Hectares of Forests, by Region

Europe is the most forested at 47%—they have a quarter of that total area.

Asia is the least forested at 20%.

🌳 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌳

🇺🇸 The copper miners broke out of former all-time high resistance.

$COPX is up 121.5% since its Liberation Day low. It's up 52.4% against the broader market since the start of August.

And it's certainly worth noting that the gold miners' chart looked similar in August...

🕯 I N T E L R U N N E R 🕯

🇺🇸 Today's market indices.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 A new ratio—the employment-population ratio—has reached its highest level since June.

The employment-to-population ratio measures the number of people currently employed as a percentage of the total working-age population.

👨‍💻 I N T E L R U N N E R 👨‍💻

🇺🇸 What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months?

Bank of America surveyed fund managers globally and determined that 57% say soft landing, 37% no landing, and just 3% hard landing.

It depends how you define it.

At first there is likely to be growth, both in the stock market and, in specific areas, in the economy. I suspect other areas will continue to atrophy without intervention.

But in the end, there is also likely another inflationary wave, and honestly: how soft is that?

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🌎 The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in December 12th:

🥉 German Equities 🇩🇪 (+1.6%)

And in 1st place last week, a two-way tie...

🥇 Gold 🥇 (+2.1%)

🥇 Ethereum 🔷 (+2.1%)

🔽 WTI Crude Oil 🛢 (-4.3%), Commodities 🌽 (-2.6%), Magnificent 7 📹 (-2.1%)

🔼 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔽

🌎 The Colors of the Year (2015–2026)

This is according to numerous paint companies who increasingly make a practice of declaring a color of the year.

🖌 I N T E L R U N N E R 🖌

🪙 Whales have accumulated 269,822 BTC (worth $23.3 billion) over the past 30 days.

This is the largest accumulation in history in this cohort in 13 years.

🐋 I N T E L R U N N E R 🐋

🇺🇸 All Federal Payrolls, Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted

Federal payrolls are at their lowest since the tail end of the Obama Administration. Credit where credit is due, but it's nothing but temporary relief without structural reform.

Let us hope that (1) someone convinces Trump to deploy the bully pulpit against Congress for something actually beneficial to the country and (2) that the Supreme Court delivers a knockout blow to the unconstitutional 4th branch of government: "independent" agencies.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 "2.7% inflation!"

Desperation ensues as the Trump Administration dumps a YoY inflation print on us cobbled together with imputations and averaging. We are even more firmly in the realm of assumption, rather than observation, than we normally are. Observation in the form of field interviews only resumed November 14th.

Practically, this means spikes in energy & pre-Thanksgiving airfare are likely undercounted, and Black Friday savings are likely overcounted. It must be noted that they imputed a 0% change in shelter for October, and shelter being one-third of the core CPI, their 2.6% YoY print there looks a little more dubious.

Here's how they did it: the 0% housing figure likely saved them 1-2 tenths, and the base effect of October 2024 (+0.39%) & November 2024 (+0.45%) rolling off is shaving roughly 0.57% off the final YoY number.

This means CPI likely should still be stuck at roughly 3% and perhaps slightly higher. As we enter the new year, the quality should improve, culminating in a much clearer, much less ambiguous & manipulated reading in March 2026.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 If you refer to the predictions made by major firms, you will see my rough re-calculation lines up with what they were anticipating themselves.

That's because that's probably where the number should be.

As it stands, it's the biggest miss in the data stretching back to 2010—by a country mile. That alone should tell you I have a point.

🔤 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔤

🔤 Bitcoin is down 9.44% YTD.

Against the S&P 500, it's down 21.34%. Against gold, it's down 45.12%.

That said, whales are buying while retail dumps, the money supply has been growing, and changes in the Fed's balance sheet are going to be net positive soon.

🌐 I N T E L R U N N E R 🤩

🌐 Gold hit $4,400/ounce for the first time in history.

🥇 I N T E L R U N N E R 🥇

🟠 Bitcoin is probably nearing the tail end of this falling wedge.

Some amount of upside is likely.

But not financial advice...

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 3- and 6-month rate of change for Supercore CPI (all items less everything—kidding).

Supercore includes all items save food, shelter, energy, and used cars & trucks. Therefore, it was likely far less affected by the imputations & averages discussed yesterday. Maybe half a tenth.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇪🇺 Low-Volatility Inflation Measures in Europe Have Stabilized

Core & Supercore inflation have been at 2.5% (with the most volatile categories stripped out). Low-volatility inflation itself is stuck at 2%.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🌐 Human Flight and Brain Drain

Where High-Skilled Workers Prefer to Leave and Where to Stay

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 The prediction market for the Democratic nominee in 2028 shows strength continuing to rally for Gavin Newsom.

Are we really doing this?

🇺🇸 I N T E L R U N N E R 🇺🇸

🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales by Region

Compared to a month ago, sales rose 4.1% m/m in the Northeast, increased 1.1% m/m in the South, were unchanged in the West and fell 2.0% m/m in the Midwest. Compared to a year ago, sales were unchanged in both the Northeast and the South, fell 3.0% y/y in the Midwest and declined 1.3% y/y in the West.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) declined 1.4% m/m (+1.2% y/y) to $409,200 in November. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.4% m/m (+1.2% y/y) to $414,300 in November. Prices of single-family homes in the Northeast edged up 0.9% from a year ago. Prices in the Midwest jumped 5.8% y/y; prices in the South rose 1.0% y/y. In contrast, prices in the West declined 0.8% from a year ago.

🏡 I N T E L R U N N E R 🏡

🇺🇸 Advance-Decline Lines for Large, Medium, and Small Caps

Look decent...

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈