🇺🇸 1- & 2-Year Inflation Swaps

They've finally given up the ghost on tariff-induced inflation. We're back to pre-election inflation expectations...

This is likely exactly the wrong time to be thinking that, but these are people who take the financial press seriously, so they get what's coming to them.

Related:
• All-Time High in Money Supply
• 39-Month High in M2 Growth
• Has Inflation Bottomed at 3%?
• U.S. Economy Expands at Fastest Pace in 2 Years

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 The Bloomberg Fed Statement Sentiment indicator is diving toward the dovish side.

As a matter of fact, we're reaching 2020 levels of dovishness...

Just when they calmed down about Trumpflation—here comes QE.

🦅 I N T E L R U N N E R 🦅

🇺🇸 30% of all American wealth is owned by men & women over 70 years of age...

👴 I N T E L R U N N E R 👴

🇺🇸 Cyclical stocks lead the breakout list...

The technology ($XLK), financial ($XLF), and industrial ($XLI) sectors saw at least 10% of their equities hitting 52-week highs.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 Central banks re-accelerated their gold purchases every time price fell a bit. They've been at it for some time now. This is a preparation for the financial system to come.

As I noted in September, the gold representation in the asset mix of Americans (and several other key populations) is woefully low.

Now, finally, we're seeing broad interest in the concept of debasement in Google searches in the United States of America. Consciousness about the loss of purchasing power for the Dollar, the Euro, and virtually every other fiat currency in concert is permeating the Wall of Sleep.

More on Debasement & Gold
• The Decline in the Euro's Purchasing Power [8/1]
• Global Gold Reserves: the United States of America vs. the World [9/26]
• The Asset Mix of Major Nations' Populations [9/30]
• Gold's Best Year Since '79 (Plus A Review of Gold Coverage Here) [10/2]
• The Gold/Silver Ratio Drops [12/2]
• Central Banks Still Buying Gold For an Ugly Tomorrow [12/5]
• The 50 Year Return on Gold Exceeds Bonds [12/7]
• The S&P 500 Priced in Gold [12/12]

💲 I N T E L R U N N E R 💶

🇺🇸 Natural gas is down 23.2% since I said:

"I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here."

Let's try to hit a few more winners before the year is out.

🔥 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔥

🇺🇸 October to November Change in Americans' Holiday Spending Plans

Americans are cutting back on holiday spending according to Gallup polling. People say "more than 2008," but dollars were worth a lot more in 2008, and never forget it.

They said they'd spend an average of $778 on gifts this year. This is $234 lower than last year’s November spending expectations of $1,012.

You should think of this as an early price of stagflation and a rogue government.

🎄 I N T E L R U N N E R 🎄

🌍 The World's 4.1 Billion Hectares of Forests, by Region

Europe is the most forested at 47%—they have a quarter of that total area.

Asia is the least forested at 20%.

🌳 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌳

🇺🇸 The copper miners broke out of former all-time high resistance.

$COPX is up 121.5% since its Liberation Day low. It's up 52.4% against the broader market since the start of August.

And it's certainly worth noting that the gold miners' chart looked similar in August...

🕯 I N T E L R U N N E R 🕯

🇺🇸 Today's market indices.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 A new ratio—the employment-population ratio—has reached its highest level since June.

The employment-to-population ratio measures the number of people currently employed as a percentage of the total working-age population.

👨‍💻 I N T E L R U N N E R 👨‍💻

🇺🇸 What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months?

Bank of America surveyed fund managers globally and determined that 57% say soft landing, 37% no landing, and just 3% hard landing.

It depends how you define it.

At first there is likely to be growth, both in the stock market and, in specific areas, in the economy. I suspect other areas will continue to atrophy without intervention.

But in the end, there is also likely another inflationary wave, and honestly: how soft is that?

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🌎 The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in December 12th:

🥉 German Equities 🇩🇪 (+1.6%)

And in 1st place last week, a two-way tie...

🥇 Gold 🥇 (+2.1%)

🥇 Ethereum 🔷 (+2.1%)

🔽 WTI Crude Oil 🛢 (-4.3%), Commodities 🌽 (-2.6%), Magnificent 7 📹 (-2.1%)

🔼 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔽

🌎 The Colors of the Year (2015–2026)

This is according to numerous paint companies who increasingly make a practice of declaring a color of the year.

🖌 I N T E L R U N N E R 🖌

🪙 Whales have accumulated 269,822 BTC (worth $23.3 billion) over the past 30 days.

This is the largest accumulation in history in this cohort in 13 years.

🐋 I N T E L R U N N E R 🐋

🇺🇸 All Federal Payrolls, Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted

Federal payrolls are at their lowest since the tail end of the Obama Administration. Credit where credit is due, but it's nothing but temporary relief without structural reform.

Let us hope that (1) someone convinces Trump to deploy the bully pulpit against Congress for something actually beneficial to the country and (2) that the Supreme Court delivers a knockout blow to the unconstitutional 4th branch of government: "independent" agencies.

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 "2.7% inflation!"

Desperation ensues as the Trump Administration dumps a YoY inflation print on us cobbled together with imputations and averaging. We are even more firmly in the realm of assumption, rather than observation, than we normally are. Observation in the form of field interviews only resumed November 14th.

Practically, this means spikes in energy & pre-Thanksgiving airfare are likely undercounted, and Black Friday savings are likely overcounted. It must be noted that they imputed a 0% change in shelter for October, and shelter being one-third of the core CPI, their 2.6% YoY print there looks a little more dubious.

Here's how they did it: the 0% housing figure likely saved them 1-2 tenths, and the base effect of October 2024 (+0.39%) & November 2024 (+0.45%) rolling off is shaving roughly 0.57% off the final YoY number.

This means CPI likely should still be stuck at roughly 3% and perhaps slightly higher. As we enter the new year, the quality should improve, culminating in a much clearer, much less ambiguous & manipulated reading in March 2026.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 If you refer to the predictions made by major firms, you will see my rough re-calculation lines up with what they were anticipating themselves.

That's because that's probably where the number should be.

As it stands, it's the biggest miss in the data stretching back to 2010—by a country mile. That alone should tell you I have a point.

🔤 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔤

🔤 Bitcoin is down 9.44% YTD.

Against the S&P 500, it's down 21.34%. Against gold, it's down 45.12%.

That said, whales are buying while retail dumps, the money supply has been growing, and changes in the Fed's balance sheet are going to be net positive soon.

🌐 I N T E L R U N N E R 🤩

🌐 Gold hit $4,400/ounce for the first time in history.

🥇 I N T E L R U N N E R 🥇

🟠 Bitcoin is probably nearing the tail end of this falling wedge.

Some amount of upside is likely.

But not financial advice...

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈