INTELRUNNER
Fun Fact: the very first post on this channel was about the importance of gold to every man, woman, child, institution, organization, and company. I said it's all about trading uncertainty.
I showed you the central banks were driving the price up. I noted the likely further upside in August, as well as the miners before that and the lagging juniors after. I discussed the importance of gold reserves last Friday.
I showed you the central banks were driving the price up. I noted the likely further upside in August, as well as the miners before that and the lagging juniors after. I discussed the importance of gold reserves last Friday.
This is becoming a much better currency inflation measure now that the chronic manipulation emanating from New York City, London, and Frankfurt is becoming untenable under the weight of Shanghai's growing market share. China does not have the same interest in suppressing the gold price that western monopoly capital does; on the contrary, it has the opposite point-of-view.
Right now, a share in $SPX is worth 1.59 ounces of gold. That's down 40.5% from 2.67 ounces in December 2021.
The all-time high for the S&P 500 is 5.59 gold ounces in July 19th, 1999. This is a much more significant & meaningful ATH than the recent high in nominal dollars ($6,920.34/share on October 29th).
In fact, $SPX is trading at the same 1.59 ounces per share it initially reached on December 4th, 1995. Of course then gold only cost you $386/ounce. That's 30 years of treading water for the American stock market.
Related Coverage
β’ The NASDAQ 100 adjusted by the M2 Money Supply
β’ Gold is having its best year since 1979 + the history of gold coverage on Intelrunner
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INTELRUNNER
Amazon's facing stiffer competition than it's used to with Temu & Shein...
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INTELRUNNER
The M2 growth rate has hit a 39-month high...
The more traditional Swedish Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Swedish Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), Europe adopted with the monetary union, have exhibited a bit of a divergence since the 2022 peak in inflation.
The ECB didn't want inflation numbers rising when they raised rates, so they just left housing costs out of the measure. Since housing & fuel costs are down 3.1% YoY, the CPI has found its way to a lower low than the HICP (like the higher high in 2022).
Why the Europeans tolerate this? No one knows. No one knows.
Why do we tolerate "owner equivalent rent"?
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INTELRUNNER
The max pain point for today's option expiry was around $90K, so price has been responsive to these trade-wrecking levels.
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The OECD has been a "global health burden" itself, for the record, along with the WTO, the IMF, the BIS & all its subsidiaries, and the World Bank.
Just saying. If they want to drink, let them drink. It's their culture.
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INTELRUNNER
(GDP per capita)
π The Wealthiest Countries in Africa by GDP Per Capita
1οΈβ£ Seychelles - $42,110
2οΈβ£ Mauritius - $33,023
βοΈ Global Average - $26,500 βοΈ
3οΈβ£ Gabon - $24,739
4οΈβ£ Egypt - $21,759
5οΈβ£ Equatorial Guinea - $20,494
π I N T E L R U N N E R π
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INTELRUNNER
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal released yesterday, Trump confirmed the choice was narrowed down to "the two Kevins" and responded "Yes, I think he is" when asked if Warsh was the Kevin in the lead.
To my mind, this is good news. Warsh presents the approach most harmonious with Trump's agenda and he has by far the best understanding of the Fed's culpability in America's economic struggles among Trump's short list.
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INTELRUNNER
The M2 growth rate has hit a 39-month high...
They've finally given up the ghost on tariff-induced inflation. We're back to pre-election inflation expectations...
This is likely exactly the wrong time to be thinking that, but these are people who take the financial press seriously, so they get what's coming to them.
Related:
β’ All-Time High in Money Supply
β’ 39-Month High in M2 Growth
β’ Has Inflation Bottomed at 3%?
β’ U.S. Economy Expands at Fastest Pace in 2 Years
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INTELRUNNER
As a matter of fact, we're reaching 2020 levels of dovishness...
Just when they calmed down about Trumpflationβhere comes QE.
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What's the result? The Silent Generation's depleted pensions still carry more weight than the sum of Millennial wealth.
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INTELRUNNER
The technology ($XLK), financial ($XLF), and industrial ($XLI) sectors saw at least 10% of their equities hitting 52-week highs.
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INTELRUNNER
As I noted in September, the gold representation in the asset mix of Americans (and several other key populations) is woefully low.
Now, finally, we're seeing broad interest in the concept of debasement in Google searches in the United States of America. Consciousness about the loss of purchasing power for the Dollar, the Euro, and virtually every other fiat currency in concert is permeating the Wall of Sleep.
More on Debasement & Gold
β’ The Decline in the Euro's Purchasing Power [8/1]
β’ Global Gold Reserves: the United States of America vs. the World [9/26]
β’ The Asset Mix of Major Nations' Populations [9/30]
β’ Gold's Best Year Since '79 (Plus A Review of Gold Coverage Here) [10/2]
β’ The Gold/Silver Ratio Drops [12/2]
β’ Central Banks Still Buying Gold For an Ugly Tomorrow [12/5]
β’ The 50 Year Return on Gold Exceeds Bonds [12/7]
β’ The S&P 500 Priced in Gold [12/12]
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INTELRUNNER
NG1! topped out at 108.3% in 102 days before closing up 100.4%.
I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here.
I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here.
"I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here."
Let's try to hit a few more winners before the year is out.
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INTELRUNNER
Americans are cutting back on holiday spending according to Gallup polling. People say "more than 2008," but dollars were worth a lot more in 2008, and never forget it.
They said they'd spend an average of $778 on gifts this year. This is $234 lower than last yearβs November spending expectations of $1,012.
You should think of this as an early price of stagflation and a rogue government.
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Europe is the most forested at 47%βthey have a quarter of that total area.
Asia is the least forested at 20%.
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INTELRUNNER
$COPX is up 121.5% since its Liberation Day low. It's up 52.4% against the broader market since the start of August.
And it's certainly worth noting that the gold miners' chart looked similar in August...
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INTELRUNNER
The employment-to-population ratio measures the number of people currently employed as a percentage of the total working-age population.
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INTELRUNNER
A soft landing is when you suffer through recession. A hard landing is when Wall Street and corporate America are forced to endure it with you.
Bank of America surveyed fund managers globally and determined that 57% say soft landing, 37% no landing, and just 3% hard landing.
It depends how you define it.
At first there is likely to be growth, both in the stock market and, in specific areas, in the economy. I suspect other areas will continue to atrophy without intervention.
But in the end, there is also likely another inflationary wave, and honestly: how soft is that?
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INTELRUNNER
And in 1st place last week, a two-way tie...
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This is according to numerous paint companies who increasingly make a practice of declaring a color of the year.
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