INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
Fun Fact: the very first post on this channel was about the importance of gold to every man, woman, child, institution, organization, and company. I said it's all about trading uncertainty.

I showed you the central banks were driving the price up. I noted the likely further upside in August, as well as the miners before that and the lagging juniors after. I discussed the importance of gold reserves last Friday.
🌐/πŸ₯‡ This is a chart of S&P 500 shares priced in gold ouncesβ€”otherwise known as the SPX-to-Gold Ratio.

This is becoming a much better currency inflation measure now that the chronic manipulation emanating from New York City, London, and Frankfurt is becoming untenable under the weight of Shanghai's growing market share. China does not have the same interest in suppressing the gold price that western monopoly capital does; on the contrary, it has the opposite point-of-view.

Right now, a share in $SPX is worth 1.59 ounces of gold. That's down 40.5% from 2.67 ounces in December 2021.

The all-time high for the S&P 500 is 5.59 gold ounces in July 19th, 1999. This is a much more significant & meaningful ATH than the recent high in nominal dollars ($6,920.34/share on October 29th).

In fact, $SPX is trading at the same 1.59 ounces per share it initially reached on December 4th, 1995. Of course then gold only cost you $386/ounce. That's 30 years of treading water for the American stock market.

Related Coverage
β€’
The NASDAQ 100 adjusted by the M2 Money Supply
β€’ Gold is having its best year since 1979 + the history of gold coverage on Intelrunner

πŸ“‰ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“‰
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Amazon ($AMZN) jumps 10% in after hours trading due to better than expected earnings. Almost all of the upside in the stock market occurs after hours. Or before hours. Something worth remembering... πŸ“± CHART WATCH πŸ“±
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸ‡«πŸ‡· Amazon: Web Visitors, Application Users, Units Sold, and Revenue YoY in the USA, the UK & France, Web & App, January 2025β€”May 2025

Amazon's facing stiffer competition than it's used to with Temu & Shein...

πŸ›’ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ›’
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The M2 growth rate has hit a 39-month high...
πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Consumer Prices in Sweden

The more traditional Swedish Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Swedish Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), Europe adopted with the monetary union, have exhibited a bit of a divergence since the 2022 peak in inflation.

The ECB didn't want inflation numbers rising when they raised rates, so they just left housing costs out of the measure. Since housing & fuel costs are down 3.1% YoY, the CPI has found its way to a lower low than the HICP (like the higher high in 2022).

Why the Europeans tolerate this? No one knows. No one knows.

Why do we tolerate "owner equivalent rent"?

πŸ“‰ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is hanging out a couple bucks above its all-time VWAP.
πŸ’Έ If Bitcoin hits $96K, then $4.57B in shorts will be liquidated.

The max pain point for today's option expiry was around $90K, so price has been responsive to these trade-wrecking levels.

🌐 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌐
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The share of US adults who drink alcohol is at its lowest since 1939…
🌍 High Versus Low Alcohol Consumption by Nation – The OECD's Drinking Divide

The OECD has been a "global health burden" itself, for the record, along with the WTO, the IMF, the BIS & all its subsidiaries, and the World Bank.

Just saying. If they want to drink, let them drink. It's their culture.

πŸ₯ƒ I N T E L R U N N E R 🍷
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ America's Richest & Poorest States vs G7 Countries
(GDP per capita)
🌍 The Wealthiest Countries in Africa by GDP Per Capita

1️⃣ Seychelles - $42,110

2️⃣ Mauritius - $33,023

↔️ Global Average - $26,500 ↔️

3️⃣ Gabon - $24,739

4️⃣ Egypt - $21,759

5️⃣ Equatorial Guinea - $20,494

🌐 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌐
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Trump has begun discussions of announcing the new Fed chair before Powell’s term is up next year.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ President Trump has moved the market attempting to predict the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal released yesterday, Trump confirmed the choice was narrowed down to "the two Kevins" and responded "Yes, I think he is" when asked if Warsh was the Kevin in the lead.

To my mind, this is good news. Warsh presents the approach most harmonious with Trump's agenda and he has by far the best understanding of the Fed's culpability in America's economic struggles among Trump's short list.

πŸ¦… I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ¦…
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The M2 growth rate has hit a 39-month high...
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 1- & 2-Year Inflation Swaps

They've finally given up the ghost on tariff-induced inflation. We're back to pre-election inflation expectations...

This is likely exactly the wrong time to be thinking that, but these are people who take the financial press seriously, so they get what's coming to them.

Related:
β€’ All-Time High in Money Supply
β€’ 39-Month High in M2 Growth
β€’ Has Inflation Bottomed at 3%?
β€’ U.S. Economy Expands at Fastest Pace in 2 Years

πŸ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“Š
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ President Trump has moved the market attempting to predict the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Bloomberg Fed Statement Sentiment indicator is diving toward the dovish side.

As a matter of fact, we're reaching 2020 levels of dovishness...

Just when they calmed down about Trumpflationβ€”here comes QE.

πŸ¦… I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ¦…
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What's the result? The Silent Generation's depleted pensions still carry more weight than the sum of Millennial wealth.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 30% of all American wealth is owned by men & women over 70 years of age...

πŸ‘΄ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ‘΄
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Flows into cyclical & defensive equity funds… πŸ“ˆ CHART WATCH πŸ“ˆ
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Cyclical stocks lead the breakout list...

The technology ($XLK), financial ($XLF), and industrial ($XLI) sectors saw at least 10% of their equities hitting 52-week highs.

πŸ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Global Gold Reserves: the United States of America vs. the World
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Central banks re-accelerated their gold purchases every time price fell a bit. They've been at it for some time now. This is a preparation for the financial system to come.

As I noted in September, the gold representation in the asset mix of Americans (and several other key populations) is woefully low.

Now, finally, we're seeing broad interest in the concept of debasement in Google searches in the United States of America. Consciousness about the loss of purchasing power for the Dollar, the Euro, and virtually every other fiat currency in concert is permeating the Wall of Sleep.

More on Debasement & Gold
β€’ The Decline in the Euro's Purchasing Power [8/1]
β€’
Global Gold Reserves: the United States of America vs. the World [9/26]
β€’ The Asset Mix of Major Nations' Populations [9/30]
β€’ Gold's Best Year Since '79 (Plus A Review of Gold Coverage Here) [10/2]
β€’ The Gold/Silver Ratio Drops [12/2]
β€’ Central Banks Still Buying Gold For an Ugly Tomorrow [12/5]
β€’ The 50 Year Return on Gold Exceeds Bonds [12/7]
β€’ The S&P 500 Priced in Gold [12/12]

πŸ’² I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ’Ά
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INTELRUNNER
NG1! topped out at 108.3% in 102 days before closing up 100.4%.

I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Natural gas is down 23.2% since I said:

"I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here."


Let's try to hit a few more winners before the year is out.

πŸ”₯ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ”₯
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Year-over-Year Inflation of Thanksgiving Staples (2019-2025)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ October to November Change in Americans' Holiday Spending Plans

Americans are cutting back on holiday spending according to Gallup polling. People say "more than 2008," but dollars were worth a lot more in 2008, and never forget it.

They said they'd spend an average of $778 on gifts this year. This is $234 lower than last year’s November spending expectations of $1,012.

You should think of this as an early price of stagflation and a rogue government.

πŸŽ„ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸŽ„
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🌍 The World's 4.1 Billion Hectares of Forests, by Region

Europe is the most forested at 47%β€”they have a quarter of that total area.

Asia is the least forested at 20%.

🌳 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌳
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🌍 Copper is up 27% this year. I had been noting bullishness in copper in early July, and price delivered on that trade rather promptly. Then came Trump's 50% tariff on semi-finished copper goods (excluding refined cathodes). As an unusually large arbitrage…
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The copper miners broke out of former all-time high resistance.

$COPX is up 121.5% since its Liberation Day low. It's up 52.4% against the broader market since the start of August.

And it's certainly worth noting that the gold miners' chart looked similar in August...

πŸ•― I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ•―
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Today's market indices.

πŸ“‰ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“‰
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Job Openings Divided By Unemployed Workers
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ A new ratioβ€”the employment-population ratioβ€”has reached its highest level since June.

The employment-to-population ratio measures the number of people currently employed as a percentage of the total working-age population.

πŸ‘¨β€πŸ’» I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ‘¨β€πŸ’»
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A soft landing is when you suffer through recession. A hard landing is when Wall Street and corporate America are forced to endure it with you.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months?

Bank of America surveyed fund managers globally and determined that 57% say soft landing, 37% no landing, and just 3% hard landing.

It depends how you define it.

At first there is likely to be growth, both in the stock market and, in specific areas, in the economy. I suspect other areas will continue to atrophy without intervention.

But in the end, there is also likely another inflationary wave, and honestly: how soft is that?

πŸ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ“ˆ
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🌎 The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in December 5th:
🌎 The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in December 12th:

πŸ₯‰ German Equities πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ (+1.6%)

And in 1st place last week, a two-way tie...

πŸ₯‡ Gold πŸ₯‡ (+2.1%)

πŸ₯‡ Ethereum πŸ”· (+2.1%)

πŸ”½ WTI Crude Oil πŸ›’ (-4.3%), Commodities 🌽 (-2.6%), Magnificent 7 πŸ“Ή (-2.1%)

πŸ”Ό I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ”½
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🌎 The Colors of the Year (2015–2026)

This is according to numerous paint companies who increasingly make a practice of declaring a color of the year.

πŸ–Œ I N T E L R U N N E R πŸ–Œ
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