INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
The SPDR Energy Sector ETF ($XLE) is breaking out of the rising wedge it dropped into just before Liberation Day.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The energy sector hasn't broken this range in yearsโ€”almost four years of consolidationโ€”but it's back at the highs now.

If you look closely, you'll see the price of $XLE is a mere 28 cents above the Summer 2008 peak of the last bull cycle.

โ›ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R โ›ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Checking in on the Jobs-Workers Gap.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Job Openings Divided By Unemployed Workers

Currently at a value of 1.01, the ratio has stabilized...

๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ป I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ป
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INTELRUNNER
The platforms are listed with the percentage of American adults using them as regular news sources in 2020 vs. 2025. The 5-year growth rates in share are parenthetically noted:
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Most Visited Websites in America

1๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ“ฑ Google
2๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ“ฑ YouTube
3๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ“ฑ Facebook
4๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ“ฑ Amazon
5๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ“ฑ Reddit

๐Ÿ“ฑ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ฑ
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INTELRUNNER
The Debtors & Creditors of Europe
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Maximum Duration of Paid Sick Leave in Europe (in months)

๐ŸŒ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŒ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Nvidia has been down 12-13% over the past month, but the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 have held up better.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ All but two of the Magnificent 7 are behind the S&P 500 year to date.

Only Google & Nvidia are excelling the broader market...

๐Ÿข I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“น
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INTELRUNNER
In the first 7 months of this year, Ukraine has officially experienced 15,310 desertions and 109,906 unauthorized abandonments.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ This is the latest data on Ukrainian desertions. Enjoy, because word is they've stopped publishing these reports. This covers January through October of this year.

Total 407s (abandonment of unit) and 408s (confirmed desertions) have reached 182,940 for 2025. That's more than two times last year (89,449).

The average for losses per day in 2025 is 602, which means there were below average losses in Augustโ€“October. In August, the number was 690 soldiers per day.

๐Ÿช– I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿช–
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INTELRUNNER
Hedge funds & other large speculators are even more short than they were 3 weeks ago (despite that healthy dip on the 1st).

Commercials are almost record long; you know how this ends. $IWM is still 7.35% off its all-time high.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Since that big pump Thanksgiving Week, small caps have been rising. I've been looking for this since summer.

I noted the commercials going long while the hedge funds were historically short on August 12th, and I pointed out the bottom in the IWM/SPY ratio on August 25th.

The Russell 2000 is up 4% since it broke through resistance and 11.2% over the past three weeks. $IWM is up 6.1% against the S&P 500 over the same period.

One to watch, especially with the Mag 7 lagging...

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ’ฒ Bitcoin went for quite a run today. From 5:30AM-2:30PM EST, $BTC put on a little over 6%. In the hour since, it's given back about 1.5%.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is hanging out a couple bucks above its all-time VWAP.

This is the same VWAP (volume-weighted average price) that provided support to $IBIT around Liberation Day.

I suspect this correction is not quite over, but more on that later...

๐Ÿ”ค I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ค
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The 10Y Yield is having its strongest week since June.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ This is the maturity schedule for United States treasuries. Can you see why the White House is so interested in rate cuts?

Every basis point cut equates to $1 billion in interest payments saved. So the Fed's quarter cut today is saving the government $25 billion.

๐Ÿ”ฃ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ”ฃ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช The INSA-BILD Sunday Poll on satisfaction with government in Germany...
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Latest polling out of Spain shows a serious drop in support for the ruling left-wing coalition and strong growth in the "far-right" party, Vox.

The country is currently governed by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which lost about 4 points of support, and Sumar, which fell a whopping 7.3%, losing over half of their popular support.

The center-right Partido Popular (PP) remains virtually unchanged at 33.2%. They are and have been the leading party in polling of late.

Vox rose to prominence in 2018, putting a stop to Spain's lack of true right-wing options. Spain has evolved from a two-party state (PP & PSOE) to a much more dynamic political scene.

Vox jumped 6.1% in this InvyMark poll. The next election will be in 2027.

๐Ÿ—ณ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ—ณ
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INTELRUNNER
๐ŸŒ The gold-to-silver ratio has plummeted to 73:1.
๐Ÿฅˆ Silver has surpassed Microsoft ($MSFT) to become the 5th largest asset by market cap (exempting bonds & real estate).

It likely still has a little more run left in it.

๐Ÿ“ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“
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๐Ÿ–ผ Top 20 Most Expensive Artworks Sold at Auction

5๏ธโƒฃ Reclining Nude - Amedeo Modigliani [$170.4 million]

4๏ธโƒฃ Women of Algiers (Version "O") - Pablo Picasso [$179.4 million]

3๏ธโƒฃ Shot Sage Blue Marilyn - Andy Warhol [$195 million]

2๏ธโƒฃ Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer - Gustav Klimt [$236.4 million a few weeks ago]

1๏ธโƒฃ Salvator Mundi - Leonardo da Vinci [$450.3 million]

๐ŸŽจ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŽจ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Most Visited Websites in America
๐Ÿคฉ Ranking of Current top 10 Websites by Monthly Visits Worldwide, Desktop & Mobile Web, October 2023โ€”September 2025

5๏ธโƒฃ ChatGPT ๐Ÿคฉ

4๏ธโƒฃ Instagram ๐Ÿคฉ

3๏ธโƒฃ Facebook ๐Ÿคฉ

2๏ธโƒฃ YouTube ๐Ÿคฉ

1๏ธโƒฃ Google ๐Ÿคฉ

Top 3 are the same as in America, but with Amazon & Reddit at 4 & 5...

๐Ÿคฉ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿคฉ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Tilray Brands is up 14.7% this week after a -70.3% decline over the past couple months.

$TLRY is looking technically appealing. It may be short-covering at the bottom of that nasty slide. At $8.43/share, Tilray is precisely at the 200DMA (the 50DMA is up at $12.46, and remarkably the all-time VWAP is at $77.59).

Fundamentally, there's all the same problems of sustaining profitability, particularly in Canadian recreational & German medical markets. Revenue & gross margins have inched higher (the Aphria merger helped here), but operating cash flow remains negative and dilution is still a concern.

Legalization has meant comparatively serious price inflation in American cannabis. That differential is worsened by persistent Canadian oversupply. The Holy Grail catalyst in this industry is still descheduling (or direct banking relief), and the bigger the market that liberalizes, the better...

๐Ÿฅฆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿฅฆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Fedโ€™s balance sheet drawdown has reached 26.18%.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Federal Reserve (Neither Federal Nor A Reserve) Balance Sheet Contraction Slows to 5.1% YoY by November 2025

After surging more than 80% year-over-year between May 2020 and February 2021, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet began to decelerate, eventually turning negative in November 2022. Since then, the pace of contraction has steadily moderated - easing from a 14.0% year-over-year decline in March 2024 to just 5.1% by November 2025.


In other words, the fake & gay financial system probably needs more support...

๐Ÿฆ… I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿฆ…
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Silver lease rates are climbing (just like platinum about a month ago)โ€ฆ
๐Ÿฅˆ Silver is cooking! We're at a 64 handle and it has now rejoined the top five (non-bond, non-real estate) assets.

This has resulted in silver being more overbought than it has been in 45 years.

The last time its Relative Strength Index was this high was January 1980 at the tail end of the first precious metals bull market since the death of Bretton Woods. It even surpassed its 2011 peak.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The iShares Expanded Techโ€“Software Sector ETF is up over 5% against the S&P 500 ($SPY) over the past seven days.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Annualized Returns Per Day For The S&P 500 In 2025

Wednesdays have been the big green day this year. Thursdays have been the most red day.

๐ŸŒ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐ŸŒ
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INTELRUNNER
Fun Fact: the very first post on this channel was about the importance of gold to every man, woman, child, institution, organization, and company. I said it's all about trading uncertainty.

I showed you the central banks were driving the price up. I noted the likely further upside in August, as well as the miners before that and the lagging juniors after. I discussed the importance of gold reserves last Friday.
๐ŸŒ/๐Ÿฅ‡ This is a chart of S&P 500 shares priced in gold ouncesโ€”otherwise known as the SPX-to-Gold Ratio.

This is becoming a much better currency inflation measure now that the chronic manipulation emanating from New York City, London, and Frankfurt is becoming untenable under the weight of Shanghai's growing market share. China does not have the same interest in suppressing the gold price that western monopoly capital does; on the contrary, it has the opposite point-of-view.

Right now, a share in $SPX is worth 1.59 ounces of gold. That's down 40.5% from 2.67 ounces in December 2021.

The all-time high for the S&P 500 is 5.59 gold ounces in July 19th, 1999. This is a much more significant & meaningful ATH than the recent high in nominal dollars ($6,920.34/share on October 29th).

In fact, $SPX is trading at the same 1.59 ounces per share it initially reached on December 4th, 1995. Of course then gold only cost you $386/ounce. That's 30 years of treading water for the American stock market.

Related Coverage
โ€ข
The NASDAQ 100 adjusted by the M2 Money Supply
โ€ข Gold is having its best year since 1979 + the history of gold coverage on Intelrunner

๐Ÿ“‰ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Amazon ($AMZN) jumps 10% in after hours trading due to better than expected earnings. Almost all of the upside in the stock market occurs after hours. Or before hours. Something worth remembering... ๐Ÿ“ฑ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ฑ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Amazon: Web Visitors, Application Users, Units Sold, and Revenue YoY in the USA, the UK & France, Web & App, January 2025โ€”May 2025

Amazon's facing stiffer competition than it's used to with Temu & Shein...

๐Ÿ›’ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ›’
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INTELRUNNER
The M2 growth rate has hit a 39-month high...
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Consumer Prices in Sweden

The more traditional Swedish Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Swedish Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), Europe adopted with the monetary union, have exhibited a bit of a divergence since the 2022 peak in inflation.

The ECB didn't want inflation numbers rising when they raised rates, so they just left housing costs out of the measure. Since housing & fuel costs are down 3.1% YoY, the CPI has found its way to a lower low than the HICP (like the higher high in 2022).

Why the Europeans tolerate this? No one knows. No one knows.

Why do we tolerate "owner equivalent rent"?

๐Ÿ“‰ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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