INTELRUNNER
The SPDR Energy Sector ETF ($XLE) is breaking out of the rising wedge it dropped into just before Liberation Day.
If you look closely, you'll see the price of $XLE is a mere 28 cents above the Summer 2008 peak of the last bull cycle.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Currently at a value of 1.01, the ratio has stabilized...
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
The platforms are listed with the percentage of American adults using them as regular news sources in 2020 vs. 2025. The 5-year growth rates in share are parenthetically noted:
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
The Debtors & Creditors of Europe
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Only Google & Nvidia are excelling the broader market...
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
In the first 7 months of this year, Ukraine has officially experienced 15,310 desertions and 109,906 unauthorized abandonments.
Total 407s (abandonment of unit) and 408s (confirmed desertions) have reached 182,940 for 2025. That's more than two times last year (89,449).
The average for losses per day in 2025 is 602, which means there were below average losses in AugustโOctober. In August, the number was 690 soldiers per day.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Hedge funds & other large speculators are even more short than they were 3 weeks ago (despite that healthy dip on the 1st).
Commercials are almost record long; you know how this ends. $IWM is still 7.35% off its all-time high.
Commercials are almost record long; you know how this ends. $IWM is still 7.35% off its all-time high.
I noted the commercials going long while the hedge funds were historically short on August 12th, and I pointed out the bottom in the IWM/SPY ratio on August 25th.
The Russell 2000 is up 4% since it broke through resistance and 11.2% over the past three weeks. $IWM is up 6.1% against the S&P 500 over the same period.
One to watch, especially with the Mag 7 lagging...
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
This is the same VWAP (volume-weighted average price) that provided support to $IBIT around Liberation Day.
I suspect this correction is not quite over, but more on that later...
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Every basis point cut equates to $1 billion in interest payments saved. So the Fed's quarter cut today is saving the government $25 billion.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
The country is currently governed by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which lost about 4 points of support, and Sumar, which fell a whopping 7.3%, losing over half of their popular support.
The center-right Partido Popular (PP) remains virtually unchanged at 33.2%. They are and have been the leading party in polling of late.
Vox rose to prominence in 2018, putting a stop to Spain's lack of true right-wing options. Spain has evolved from a two-party state (PP & PSOE) to a much more dynamic political scene.
Vox jumped 6.1% in this InvyMark poll. The next election will be in 2027.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
It likely still has a little more run left in it.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Top 3 are the same as in America, but with Amazon & Reddit at 4 & 5...
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
$TLRY is looking technically appealing. It may be short-covering at the bottom of that nasty slide. At $8.43/share, Tilray is precisely at the 200DMA (the 50DMA is up at $12.46, and remarkably the all-time VWAP is at $77.59).
Fundamentally, there's all the same problems of sustaining profitability, particularly in Canadian recreational & German medical markets. Revenue & gross margins have inched higher (the Aphria merger helped here), but operating cash flow remains negative and dilution is still a concern.
Legalization has meant comparatively serious price inflation in American cannabis. That differential is worsened by persistent Canadian oversupply. The Holy Grail catalyst in this industry is still descheduling (or direct banking relief), and the bigger the market that liberalizes, the better...
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
After surging more than 80% year-over-year between May 2020 and February 2021, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet began to decelerate, eventually turning negative in November 2022. Since then, the pace of contraction has steadily moderated - easing from a 14.0% year-over-year decline in March 2024 to just 5.1% by November 2025.
In other words, the fake & gay financial system probably needs more support...
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
This has resulted in silver being more overbought than it has been in 45 years.
The last time its Relative Strength Index was this high was January 1980 at the tail end of the first precious metals bull market since the death of Bretton Woods. It even surpassed its 2011 peak.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Wednesdays have been the big green day this year. Thursdays have been the most red day.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Fun Fact: the very first post on this channel was about the importance of gold to every man, woman, child, institution, organization, and company. I said it's all about trading uncertainty.
I showed you the central banks were driving the price up. I noted the likely further upside in August, as well as the miners before that and the lagging juniors after. I discussed the importance of gold reserves last Friday.
I showed you the central banks were driving the price up. I noted the likely further upside in August, as well as the miners before that and the lagging juniors after. I discussed the importance of gold reserves last Friday.
This is becoming a much better currency inflation measure now that the chronic manipulation emanating from New York City, London, and Frankfurt is becoming untenable under the weight of Shanghai's growing market share. China does not have the same interest in suppressing the gold price that western monopoly capital does; on the contrary, it has the opposite point-of-view.
Right now, a share in $SPX is worth 1.59 ounces of gold. That's down 40.5% from 2.67 ounces in December 2021.
The all-time high for the S&P 500 is 5.59 gold ounces in July 19th, 1999. This is a much more significant & meaningful ATH than the recent high in nominal dollars ($6,920.34/share on October 29th).
In fact, $SPX is trading at the same 1.59 ounces per share it initially reached on December 4th, 1995. Of course then gold only cost you $386/ounce. That's 30 years of treading water for the American stock market.
Related Coverage
โข The NASDAQ 100 adjusted by the M2 Money Supply
โข Gold is having its best year since 1979 + the history of gold coverage on Intelrunner
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Amazon's facing stiffer competition than it's used to with Temu & Shein...
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
The M2 growth rate has hit a 39-month high...
The more traditional Swedish Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Swedish Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), Europe adopted with the monetary union, have exhibited a bit of a divergence since the 2022 peak in inflation.
The ECB didn't want inflation numbers rising when they raised rates, so they just left housing costs out of the measure. Since housing & fuel costs are down 3.1% YoY, the CPI has found its way to a lower low than the HICP (like the higher high in 2022).
Why the Europeans tolerate this? No one knows. No one knows.
Why do we tolerate "owner equivalent rent"?
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM