INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Trump approval rating falls to 41 percent from 42 in the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll.

🇺🇸 Second Term Job Approval Through the First Year to Date (Comparing Trump, Obama, and Bush)

Both Obama & Bush had contemptuous second terms and Trump is working hard on his own...

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

🇩🇪 Fresh polling (this time from YouGov) of the German public taken September 12th-15th has Alternative for Deutschland taking the lead away from the current largest party, CDU/CSU…

This corresponds to the recent surge for AfD in the North Rhine-Westphalia region. However, it isn’t all that different than the Forsa poll published on the 12th of August.

The only takeaways are that votes are still shifting away from more standard leftist parties (-2pp for both Grüne & Linke) and that the two right-wing parties could enact a moderate conservative agenda if the CDU/CSU wasn’t secretly globalist/more comfortable with the SPD.

**The next election is in 2029. The deltas noted for each party refer to the prior poll that wasn’t covered here from August 20th.

🗳 CHART WATC

🇩🇪 The INSA-BILD Sunday Poll on satisfaction with government in Germany...

Disapproval of the federal government has grown by 3 points. It now stands at a whopping 70%.

Disapproval of Chancellor Merz is now at 68%. That's up 4 points since last time.

Over 2/3rds of Germany is unhappy with the current governance situation.

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CHART WATCH

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INTELRUNNER

Alright, we're back in the prediction markets. This one is guessing who will be named in the new Epstein Files release.

🇺🇸 The prediction market for the 2026 World Cup Winner...

🆎 Spain 🇪🇸 16%
🆎 England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 13%
🆎 France 🇫🇷 13%
🆎 Portugal 🇵🇹 9%
🆎 Argentina 🇦🇷 9%
🆎 Brazil 🇧🇷 8%

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Non-Profitable Tech Peaked With Rate Cut Odds

🇺🇸 The iShares Expanded Tech–Software Sector ETF is up over 5% against the S&P 500 ($SPY) over the past seven days.

$IGV has been rising since the 21st of November (8.6%). The 50DMA is about 130bp overhead.

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INTELRUNNER

The SPDR Energy Sector ETF ($XLE) is breaking out of the rising wedge it dropped into just before Liberation Day.

🇺🇸 The energy sector hasn't broken this range in years—almost four years of consolidation—but it's back at the highs now.

If you look closely, you'll see the price of $XLE is a mere 28 cents above the Summer 2008 peak of the last bull cycle.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Checking in on the Jobs-Workers Gap.

🇺🇸 Job Openings Divided By Unemployed Workers

Currently at a value of 1.01, the ratio has stabilized...

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

The platforms are listed with the percentage of American adults using them as regular news sources in 2020 vs. 2025. The 5-year growth rates in share are parenthetically noted:

🇺🇸 The Most Visited Websites in America

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📱 Google

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📱 YouTube

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📱 Facebook

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📱 Amazon

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📱 Reddit

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

The Debtors & Creditors of Europe

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Maximum Duration of Paid Sick Leave in Europe (in months)

🌍 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌍

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Nvidia has been down 12-13% over the past month, but the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 have held up better.

🇺🇸 All but two of the Magnificent 7 are behind the S&P 500 year to date.

Only Google & Nvidia are excelling the broader market...

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

In the first 7 months of this year, Ukraine has officially experienced 15,310 desertions and 109,906 unauthorized abandonments.

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This is the latest data on Ukrainian desertions. Enjoy, because word is they've stopped publishing these reports. This covers January through October of this year.

Total 407s (abandonment of unit) and 408s (confirmed desertions) have reached 182,940 for 2025. That's more than two times last year (89,449).

The average for losses per day in 2025 is 602, which means there were below average losses in August–October. In August, the number was 690 soldiers per day.

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

Hedge funds & other large speculators are even more short than they were 3 weeks ago (despite that healthy dip on the 1st).

Commercials are almost record long; you know how this ends. $IWM is still 7.35% off its all-time high.

🇺🇸 Since that big pump Thanksgiving Week, small caps have been rising. I've been looking for this since summer.

I noted the commercials going long while the hedge funds were historically short on August 12th, and I pointed out the bottom in the IWM/SPY ratio on August 25th.

The Russell 2000 is up 4% since it broke through resistance and 11.2% over the past three weeks. $IWM is up 6.1% against the S&P 500 over the same period.

One to watch, especially with the Mag 7 lagging...

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

💲 Bitcoin went for quite a run today. From 5:30AM-2:30PM EST, $BTC put on a little over 6%. In the hour since, it's given back about 1.5%.

🇺🇸 The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is hanging out a couple bucks above its all-time VWAP.

This is the same VWAP (volume-weighted average price) that provided support to $IBIT around Liberation Day.

I suspect this correction is not quite over, but more on that later...

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The 10Y Yield is having its strongest week since June.

🇺🇸 This is the maturity schedule for United States treasuries. Can you see why the White House is so interested in rate cuts?

Every basis point cut equates to $1 billion in interest payments saved. So the Fed's quarter cut today is saving the government $25 billion.

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

🇩🇪 The INSA-BILD Sunday Poll on satisfaction with government in Germany...

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Latest polling out of Spain shows a serious drop in support for the ruling left-wing coalition and strong growth in the "far-right" party, Vox.

The country is currently governed by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which lost about 4 points of support, and Sumar, which fell a whopping 7.3%, losing over half of their popular support.

The center-right Partido Popular (PP) remains virtually unchanged at 33.2%. They are and have been the leading party in polling of late.

Vox rose to prominence in 2018, putting a stop to Spain's lack of true right-wing options. Spain has evolved from a two-party state (PP & PSOE) to a much more dynamic political scene.

Vox jumped 6.1% in this InvyMark poll. The next election will be in 2027.

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INTELRUNNER

🌍 The gold-to-silver ratio has plummeted to 73:1.

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Silver has surpassed Microsoft ($MSFT) to become the 5th largest asset by market cap (exempting bonds & real estate).

It likely still has a little more run left in it.

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

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Top 20 Most Expensive Artworks Sold at Auction

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Reclining Nude - Amedeo Modigliani [$170.4 million]

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Women of Algiers (Version "O") - Pablo Picasso [$179.4 million]

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Shot Sage Blue Marilyn - Andy Warhol [$195 million]

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Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer - Gustav Klimt [$236.4 million a few weeks ago]

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Salvator Mundi - Leonardo da Vinci [$450.3 million]

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The Most Visited Websites in America

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Ranking of Current top 10 Websites by Monthly Visits Worldwide, Desktop & Mobile Web, October 2023—September 2025

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ChatGPT 🤩

4️⃣ Instagram 🤩

3️⃣ Facebook 🤩

2️⃣ YouTube 🤩

1️⃣ Google 🤩

Top 3 are the same as in America, but with Amazon & Reddit at 4 & 5...

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I N T E L R U N N E R

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Tilray Brands is up 14.7% this week after a -70.3% decline over the past couple months.

$TLRY is looking technically appealing. It may be short-covering at the bottom of that nasty slide. At $8.43/share, Tilray is precisely at the 200DMA (the 50DMA is up at $12.46, and remarkably the all-time VWAP is at $77.59).

Fundamentally, there's all the same problems of sustaining profitability, particularly in Canadian recreational & German medical markets. Revenue & gross margins have inched higher (the Aphria merger helped here), but operating cash flow remains negative and dilution is still a concern.

Legalization has meant comparatively serious price inflation in American cannabis. That differential is worsened by persistent Canadian oversupply. The Holy Grail catalyst in this industry is still descheduling (or direct banking relief), and the bigger the market that liberalizes, the better...

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The Fed’s balance sheet drawdown has reached 26.18%.

🇺🇸 Federal Reserve (Neither Federal Nor A Reserve) Balance Sheet Contraction Slows to 5.1% YoY by November 2025

After surging more than 80% year-over-year between May 2020 and February 2021, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet began to decelerate, eventually turning negative in November 2022. Since then, the pace of contraction has steadily moderated - easing from a 14.0% year-over-year decline in March 2024 to just 5.1% by November 2025.

In other words, the fake & gay financial system probably needs more support...

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