🇺🇸 Signals! What signals?!

The spread between United States and European Union (German) debt is down to 149bp (10Y) and 156bp (30Y), wiping away most of the Liberation Day bounce.

I told you so…

🇺🇸 America's Fastest Shrinking Jobs

"Announced US job cuts fell 37% in September vs the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm.

🇺🇸 Trump approval rating falls to 41 percent from 42 in the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll.

🇩🇪 Fresh polling (this time from YouGov) of the German public taken September 12th-15th has Alternative for Deutschland taking the lead away from the current largest party, CDU/CSU…

This corresponds to the recent surge for AfD in the North Rhine-Westphalia region. However, it isn’t all that different than the Forsa poll published on the 12th of August.

The only takeaways are that votes are still shifting away from more standard leftist parties (-2pp for both Grüne & Linke) and that the two right-wing parties could enact a moderate conservative agenda if the CDU/CSU wasn’t secretly globalist/more comfortable with the SPD.

**The next election is in 2029. The deltas noted for each party refer to the prior poll that wasn’t covered here from August 20th.

🗳 CHART WATC

Alright, we're back in the prediction markets. This one is guessing who will be named in the new Epstein Files release.

🇺🇸 Non-Profitable Tech Peaked With Rate Cut Odds

The SPDR Energy Sector ETF ($XLE) is breaking out of the rising wedge it dropped into just before Liberation Day.

🇺🇸 Checking in on the Jobs-Workers Gap.

The platforms are listed with the percentage of American adults using them as regular news sources in 2020 vs. 2025. The 5-year growth rates in share are parenthetically noted:

The Debtors & Creditors of Europe

🇺🇸 Nvidia has been down 12-13% over the past month, but the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 have held up better.

In the first 7 months of this year, Ukraine has officially experienced 15,310 desertions and 109,906 unauthorized abandonments.

Hedge funds & other large speculators are even more short than they were 3 weeks ago (despite that healthy dip on the 1st).

Commercials are almost record long; you know how this ends. $IWM is still 7.35% off its all-time high.

💲 Bitcoin went for quite a run today. From 5:30AM-2:30PM EST, $BTC put on a little over 6%. In the hour since, it's given back about 1.5%.

🇺🇸 The 10Y Yield is having its strongest week since June.

🇩🇪 The INSA-BILD Sunday Poll on satisfaction with government in Germany...