INTELRUNNER
These are the two Conference Board indices tracking leading versus current indicators. Historically, this is the second worst ratio ever recorded—and counting.
The worst ever, narrowly, is the trough of the Great Financial Crisis, February through April of 2009. It has now surpassed the 1981-82 recession.
As I noted in August, these levels tend to mark the terminus of recessions—you know, the recession we're "not in" because "my 401K is fine."
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INTELRUNNER
Carrier strike group (CSG) is an operational formation of the United States Navy. It is centered on an aircraft carrier and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircrafts. It’s composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, an aircraft carrier, at least one cruiser, a destroyer squadron of at least two destroyers and/or frigates. A carrier strike group also, on occasion, includes submarines, attached logistics ships and a supply ship. Carrier strike groups comprise a principal element of U.S. power projection over the world’s oceans.
Well yeah, okay, sure, depending on whom you're projecting power at.
They're not all that useful against geopolitical rivals anymore. If you're Somali pirate, then yes, you're done for. But those aren't the only types of people D.C. is picking fights with these days.
When it comes to those sorts of nations, a much bigger submarine fleet and a whole lot of drone production will be a lot more valuable. Unfortunately, that's not how budgetary decisions are made in D.C.
It has far more to do with Senator So & So wanting aircraft carrier production to continue in his state. And of course the complex is always fighting amongst itself over the trillion dollars with little regard for anything but Wall Street's latest analysis...
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INTELRUNNER
Decent odds. The pound looks ready for a bounce itself.
But not advice, don't forget it.
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INTELRUNNER
Healthcare is the big winner at +9.8%.
Media is too big
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What this shows more than anything is how comically unbalanced the S&P 500 ($SPX) is. That's okay though.
It's not like energy, utilities, or basic materials are significant parts of the economy or anything...
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INTELRUNNER
I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here.
Absolutely not financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
Semiconductors and software have been getting killed...not so hot for auto either.
Media & entertainment, pharma & biotech, and retail & food were the only industry groups above 1X.
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INTELRUNNER
The BDI is often used as an indicator of future economic activity, understandably, because it signals an intent to produce.
However, it's also a warning sign of potential inflationary pressures. The BDI is up 165% YTD and it hit a local high 2,845 yesterday—the highest in 2 years.
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INTELRUNNER
Monthly change in non-farm employment.
Thousands of persons, seasonally adjusted.
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INTELRUNNER
At a minimum, 2019-20 should've been the red flag that convinced gold was in for serious appreciation.
If not 2007-8...
I suspect this trend continues.
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INTELRUNNER
They were at a -10 differential in 2019, but during the pandemic they managed to shift it to +4 in 2022. Now it sits at -24 with 59% of American asserting disapproval of the Israeli government (with 35% approving).
34% say they're anti-Israel. 14% say they're pro-Israel. The largest group, 36%, are neither pro- nor anti-Israel. And 16% "don't know."
The Reform Party features the strongest support for Israel at 39%. The Conservative Party is more balanced: 27% support & 20% oppose. In the Lib Dem, Labour, and especially the Green Party, opposition is strong, and support has dwindled to single digits.
More Polls about Israel
• American Favorability of Different Elements Within Israel-Palestine [11/16]
• Growing Share of Americans Say Israel is Going Too Far [11/14]
• Jewish Israeli Support for Expulsion of Gazans, for Expulsion of Arab Israelis, and for Killing All Inhabitants like Joshua in Jericho [10/13]
• Americans' Overall View of Israel's Military Action in Gaza [7/31]
• What the World Thinks of Israel [7/12]
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INTELRUNNER
Might not be, but it sure looks and feels like one—especially with Goldman predicting a glut into next year.
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INTELRUNNER
A lot of that upside has been in the technology sector ($XLK) is up 26.62%, and the Mag 7 ($MAGS) are up 25.56% YTD.
I would strongly wager this streak will break soon. The Qs are looking a little weak themselves.
Not financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
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Back to two-year lows.
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INTELRUNNER
Bank of America has the lowest estimation; they see SPX 7100 at the start of 2027.
Deutsche Bank was the most generous in expecting SPX 8000 instead.
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INTELRUNNER
The spread between United States and European Union (German) debt is down to 149bp (10Y) and 156bp (30Y), wiping away most of the Liberation Day bounce.
I told you so…
I told you so…
The Autumn Budget in Britain obviously succeeded as far as pushing the 30Y onward & upward, focusing on shorter-dated issuance (2-10Y) while quantitative tightening sales focused on shorter terms as well (3-15Y).
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INTELRUNNER
That top orange line is nice, but it needs to be bigger.
If that means putting judges in jail, so be it. The public sector is devouring the economy and spending it on hamstringing what's left of it (while decimating American culture and civilization for cheap, selfish ends).
Bury it.
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INTELRUNNER
"Announced US job cuts fell 37% in September vs the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm.
2025 is the worst year for cuts besides 2020's COVID anomaly and the GFC fallout in 2009.
Given many are just government jobs though, there is plenty of good economic news contained in this statistic...
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INTELRUNNER
Both Obama & Bush had contemptuous second terms and Trump is working hard on his own...
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INTELRUNNER
This corresponds to the recent surge for AfD in the North Rhine-Westphalia region. However, it isn’t all that different than the Forsa poll published on the 12th of August.
The only takeaways are that votes are still shifting away from more standard leftist parties (-2pp for both Grüne & Linke) and that the two right-wing parties could enact a moderate conservative agenda if the CDU/CSU wasn’t secretly globalist/more comfortable with the SPD.
**The next election is in 2029. The deltas noted for each party refer to the prior poll that wasn’t covered here from August 20th.
Disapproval of the federal government has grown by 3 points. It now stands at a whopping 70%.
Disapproval of Chancellor Merz is now at 68%. That's up 4 points since last time.
Over 2/3rds of Germany is unhappy with the current governance situation.
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