🇺🇸 Ratio of the Leading Economic Index to the Coincident Economic Index

These are the two Conference Board indices tracking leading versus current indicators. Historically, this is the second worst ratio ever recorded—and counting.

The worst ever, narrowly, is the trough of the Great Financial Crisis, February through April of 2009. It has now surpassed the 1981-82 recession.

As I noted in August, these levels tend to mark the terminus of recessions—you know, the recession we're "not in" because "my 401K is fine."

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉

🇺🇸 Current Locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (as of December 2nd)

Carrier strike group (CSG) is an operational formation of the United States Navy. It is centered on an aircraft carrier and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircrafts. It’s composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, an aircraft carrier, at least one cruiser, a destroyer squadron of at least two destroyers and/or frigates. A carrier strike group also, on occasion, includes submarines, attached logistics ships and a supply ship. Carrier strike groups comprise a principal element of U.S. power projection over the world’s oceans.

Well yeah, okay, sure, depending on whom you're projecting power at.

They're not all that useful against geopolitical rivals anymore. If you're Somali pirate, then yes, you're done for. But those aren't the only types of people D.C. is picking fights with these days.

When it comes to those sorts of nations, a much bigger submarine fleet and a whole lot of drone production will be a lot more valuable. Unfortunately, that's not how budgetary decisions are made in D.C.

It has far more to do with Senator So & So wanting aircraft carrier production to continue in his state. And of course the complex is always fighting amongst itself over the trillion dollars with little regard for anything but Wall Street's latest analysis...

💫 I N T E L R U N N E R 💫

🇪🇺 Can EURUSD sustain this two-week trend?

Decent odds. The pound looks ready for a bounce itself.

But not advice, don't forget it.

🔎 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔎

🇺🇸 A visualization of the morning session in yesterday's market. Each set of bubbles represents a sector.

What this shows more than anything is how comically unbalanced the S&P 500 ($SPX) is. That's okay though.

It's not like energy, utilities, or basic materials are significant parts of the economy or anything...

🟢 I N T E L R U N N E R 🟢

🇺🇸 Natural gas has run quite a ways now. NG1! topped out at 108.3% in 102 days before closing up 100.4%.

I've got a gut instinct we're due for a pullback here.

Absolutely not financial advice...

✅ I N T E L R U N N E R ✅

🇺🇸 Change in Forward P/E of S&P 500 Industry Groups (Since 10/28/2025 High)

Semiconductors and software have been getting killed...not so hot for auto either.

Media & entertainment, pharma & biotech, and retail & food were the only industry groups above 1X.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🌍 The Baltic Dry Index tracks the cost of shipping raw materials like iron ore, coal, and grain across various sea routes.

The BDI is often used as an indicator of future economic activity, understandably, because it signals an intent to produce.

However, it's also a warning sign of potential inflationary pressures. The BDI is up 165% YTD and it hit a local high 2,845 yesterday—the highest in 2 years.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 Employment has stalled out...

Monthly change in non-farm employment.

Thousands of persons, seasonally adjusted.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 Gold's Return in 50 Years Exceeds Bonds

At a minimum, 2019-20 should've been the red flag that convinced gold was in for serious appreciation.

If not 2007-8...

I suspect this trend continues.

🤩 I N T E L R U N N E R 🤩

🇬🇧🇮🇱 Over twice as many Britons describe themselves as "anti-Israel" as those who describe themselves as "pro-Israel."

34% say they're anti-Israel. 14% say they're pro-Israel. The largest group, 36%, are neither pro- nor anti-Israel. And 16% "don't know."

The Reform Party features the strongest support for Israel at 39%. The Conservative Party is more balanced: 27% support & 20% oppose. In the Lib Dem, Labour, and especially the Green Party, opposition is strong, and support has dwindled to single digits.

More Polls about Israel
• American Favorability of Different Elements Within Israel-Palestine [11/16]
• Growing Share of Americans Say Israel is Going Too Far [11/14]
• Jewish Israeli Support for Expulsion of Gazans, for Expulsion of Arab Israelis, and for Killing All Inhabitants like Joshua in Jericho [10/13]
• Americans' Overall View of Israel's Military Action in Gaza [7/31]
• What the World Thinks of Israel [7/12]

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 The technology sector ETF has had eleven straight green days, which is the 3rd longest streak for $XLK.

I would strongly wager this streak will break soon. The Qs are looking a little weak themselves.

Not financial advice...

🖥 I N T E L R U N N E R 🖥

🌎 The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in December 5th:

🥉 Commodities 🌽 (+1.5%)

🥈 Industrial Metals ⚙️ (+2.0%)

🥇 WTI Crude 🛢 (+2.7%)

🔽 U.S. 30Y Treasuries 🇺🇸 (-1.8%), Bitcoin 💰 (-1.7%), U.S. REITs 🇺🇸 (-1.6%)

🔼 CHART WATCH 🔽

🇺🇸 Respondents who expect their financial situation will be better off over the next year...

Back to two-year lows.

🦅 I N T E L R U N N E R 🦅

🇺🇸 Wall Street expects US stocks to continue rallying in 2026...

Bank of America has the lowest estimation; they see SPX 7100 at the start of 2027.

Deutsche Bank was the most generous in expecting SPX 8000 instead.

🌐 I N T E L R U N N E R 🌐

🌍 30 Year Government Bond Year-to-Date Returns (Local FX)

The Autumn Budget in Britain obviously succeeded as far as pushing the 30Y onward & upward, focusing on shorter-dated issuance (2-10Y) while quantitative tightening sales focused on shorter terms as well (3-15Y).

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 American Job Cuts by Industry

That top orange line is nice, but it needs to be bigger.

If that means putting judges in jail, so be it. The public sector is devouring the economy and spending it on hamstringing what's left of it (while decimating American culture and civilization for cheap, selfish ends).

Bury it.

✍️ I N T E L R U N N E R ✍️

🇺🇸 Challenger Job Cuts (YTD Total)

2025 is the worst year for cuts besides 2020's COVID anomaly and the GFC fallout in 2009.

Given many are just government jobs though, there is plenty of good economic news contained in this statistic...

🛠 I N T E L R U N N E R 🛠