🇺🇸 Henry Hub is up 89% in 99 days. So what's going on with natural gas?

While it's one of the most weather-sensitive trades out there, there's more going on than simply the advent of winter:

1️⃣ Record LNG Exports – America shipped an all-time high 10mmt. We're going to have to start buying Russian gas to compensate for Europe sucking ours down. (Don't you feel more secure now that Europe can't buy from Russia?) This is costing America's domestic market 14-15 Bcf/day.

2️⃣ Limited Tanker Availability – Spot LNG charter rates have hit a two-year high of $130,750/day.

3️⃣ Output Dipped - Lower 48 dry gas production is down 0.6 Bcf/day despite a higher rig count.

4️⃣ Speculation - Managed money longs have doubled since October as momentum funds chase the trend.

5️⃣ Weather - Yes, it's winter as expected, but early December HDD forecasts are elevated for the Midwest & Northeast. This is well-anticipated and certainly fully priced in.

⛽️ I N T E L R U N N E R ⛽️

🇺🇸 The Global X Copper Miners ETF is up 104.2% since Liberation Day.

Last Friday $COPX broke out of a descending channel/bull flag type structure. On Saturday we discussed the 27% rise in copper prices this year.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

💲 Bitcoin went for quite a run today. From 5:30AM-2:30PM EST, $BTC put on a little over 6%. In the hour since, it's given back about 1.5%.

So liquidity must be looking up...

What a clean five wave formation, by the way.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇰🇷 Chatbot Accuracy by Model & Rates of Errors

Recent tests by the European Broadcasting Union found that artificial intelligence assistants misrepresented news content in 45% of evaluated cases across languages and regions, highlighting persistent concerns about accuracy as Al adoption grows.

Two concepts are measured here: (1) accuracy, or the rate at which responses were factually correct and (2) hallucination, or the proportion of responses a model gets wrong because it made them up:

Accuracy remains limited. Gemini 3 Preview (High) leads at 54%, followed by Claude Opus 4.5 at 43% and Grok 4 at 40%. Gemini 2.5 Pro reaches 37%, GPT-5.1 (High) 35%, and Claude 4.5 Sonnet 31%. Most other models fall into the twenties or teens, showing that higher accuracy does not automatically prevent frequent errors.

Hallucination rates vary widely. Claude 4.5 Haiku reports the lowest rate at 26%, followed by Claude 4.5 Sonnet at 48% and GPT-5.1 (High) at 51%. Claude Opus 4.5 reaches 58%...Grok 4 records 64%, Kimi K2 0905 69%, and Grok 4.1 Fast 72%. Kimi K2 Thinking reaches 74%, and Llama Nemotron Super 49B v1.5 76%.

DeepSeek models are among the least reliable. V3.2 Ex records 81%, R1 0528 83%, and EXAONE 4.032B 86%. Llama 4 Maverick posts 87.58%, while multiple Gemini variants exceed 87%. GLM-4.6 and gpt-oss-20B (High) top the chart above 93%.

This is why ChatGPT (OpenAI) and Claude (Anthropic) are doing well. The latter especially is making inroads into the commercial sector because of the high value placed on both of these two accuracy metrics.

It makes no difference what extra mile your model can pull off if it's inventing things when it should be uncertain. Grok 4 was the most accurate until fairly recently, but are companies going to switch to the probable new leader in accuracy, Gemini 3, when it hallucinates 88% of the time?

Related: AI Safety Rankings

🔥 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔥

🇺🇸 Share of U.S. respondents who have used the following Al tools in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

ChatGPT is the top answer in all three. Gemini has been rallying. Llama slides in obscurity as deserved. Claude & Mistral are solid products.

I distrust Microsoft more than I distrust Big Tech in general basis (quite a bit) and won't allow it on my devices.

⚡️ I N T E L R U N N E R ⚡️

🇭🇳 The prediction market for the presidential election in Honduras has shifted decidedly toward Salvador Nasralla with 53% odds.

What a wild race though. Look at the past month!

🔮 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔮

🇺🇸🇧🇷 The historic breakout in the Latin America 40 ETF continues. $ILF is up 49.74% YTD.

The top four holdings in $ILF are easily traded on American exchanges and they're all Brazilian:

🆎 Itaú Unibanco Holdings S.A. ($ITUB, 7.33%)
🆎 Vale S.A. ($VALE, 8.14%)
🆎 Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (8.85% b/w $PBR & $PBRA)
🆎 Nu Holdings Ltd. ($NU, 11.78%)

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🇺🇸 The Q4 2025 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index

CADSI shows the current market index falling -5 pts to 38 (from 43 in Q3), with the future outlook down -4 pts to 42, underscoring a broad deterioration in dealer sentiment heading into year-end.

🤩 I N T E L R U N N E R 🤩

🇺🇸 A third of the NASDAQ Composite stocks have triggered buy signals on the MACD.

We have not seen that since before & after Liberation Day.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

🌍 Dividend yields are lower in America than almost everywhere else on Earth...

Exception: Argentina 🇦🇷

Highest Yields: Brazil 🇧🇷

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 Gas Prices in America have slipped under $3 per gallon for the first time in 4 years.

It has certainly been a priority of the Trump Administration to attack oil prices.

Goldman Sachs expects the glut to continue into next year. I regard such predictions with suspicion given the source...

⛽️ INTELRUNNER ⛽️

🇺🇸 The AAII Asset Allocation to equities is the highest (71.2%) since the November 2021 peak.

Cash allocation is near 4-year lows (14.8%), and the allocation to bonds is slightly south of that, although not quite at the lowest lows...

📈 INTELRUNNER 📉

🇺🇸 Nvidia has been down 12-13% over the past month, but the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 have held up better. $SPX and $MAGS gained 14.3% and 11.75% respectively against $NVDA over the same period.

In other words, the market can survive at least one month without its leader...

More: A prescient post I made being cynical about Nvidia's valuation on the night of its all-time high.

📹 INTELRUNNER 📹

🇺🇸 The largest cumulative losses before young companies turned a profit compared with the cash burn for OpenAl and Anthropic based on media reports (in billions of dollars)...

You see why Sam Altman wants federally guaranteed loans? Let me state that differently:

Do you see why he wants the taxpayers to pick up his risk while he retains the reward? For his one-time "nonprofit" company?

🤩 I N T E L R U N N E R 🤩

🌍 Central banks are buying gold like there's about to be a world war or a financial reset—or something...

More on Gold
• Global Gold Reserves: the United States of America vs. the World [9/26]
• Gold's Best Year Since '79 (Plus A Review of Gold Coverage Here) [10/2]
• The Gold/Silver Ratio Drops [12/2]

🤩 I N T E L R U N N E R 🤩

🇺🇸 Ratio of the Leading Economic Index to the Coincident Economic Index

These are the two Conference Board indices tracking leading versus current indicators. Historically, this is the second worst ratio ever recorded—and counting.

The worst ever, narrowly, is the trough of the Great Financial Crisis, February through April of 2009. It has now surpassed the 1981-82 recession.

As I noted in August, these levels tend to mark the terminus of recessions—you know, the recession we're "not in" because "my 401K is fine."

📉 I N T E L R U N N E R 📉