🇺🇸 The Clorox Company ($CLX) is down 34% year-to-date.

I like it here, strictly technically.

Not financial advice. For all I know, they haven't sold a bottle in six months.

📊 INTELRUNNER 📊

🇬🇧 Percent That Regularly Use Social Media Apps by Age & Gender

😎 INTELRUNNER 😎

🇺🇸 Non-Profitable Tech Peaked With Rate Cut Odds

The market wants to see a more dovish Fed...

📈 INTELRUNNER 📉

🇺🇸 COMEX Silver Futures are off to hot start in the first hour of Sunday evening trading.

SI1! is up 1.7% today.

🪙 INTELRUNNER 🪙

🇺🇸 The American M2 Money Supply hit $22.3 trillion in October 2025...

It's a new record! (As always.)

💵 I N T E L R U N N E R 💵

🇺🇸 The M2 Money Supply's Growth Rate

The M2 growth rate has hit a 39-month high...

💵 I N T E L R U N N E R 💵

🇺🇸 Sector returns so far this month...

Healthcare is the big winner at +9.8%. Solid performance from Materials (+3.9%) and Consumer Staples (+3.6%) as well.

The biggest loser was Technology at -5.4%. Consumer Discretionary (-2.0%) and Industrials (-1.1%) also lagged.

🔺️ I N T E L R U N N E R 🔺️

🇺🇸 Cisco has almost recovered its 2000 all-time high (in nominal dollars, of course).

It's grown 29% year over year.

💻 I N T E L R U N N E R 💻

🇺🇸 Cisco has not recovered its 2000 all-time high (in real terms).

It's sat in the same stupid range at the bottom of its Dotcom slide, and it's merely returning to the highs...

🖱 I N T E L R U N N E R 🖱

🇩🇪 Rheinmetall AG shareholders are not fans of all of this "peace in Ukraine" talk...

It's down 28% in two months.

You see the pernicious influence here? And Europe thinks they want more military-industrial complex.

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🌎 Cryptocurrency Adoption in Asia

Top Ranked Adoptees: India 🇮🇳, Pakistan 🇵🇰, Vietnam 🇻🇳, Indonesia 🇮🇩, and the Philippines 🇵🇭

Lowest Ranked Adoptees: Brunei 🇧🇳, Laos 🇱🇦, Afghanistan 🇦🇫, Oman 🇴🇲, and Bahrain 🇧🇭

India is the leader in crypto adoption, and I've covered their currency struggles. They also have a lot of underbanked people. Indonesia is a DeFi powerhouse. Vietnam takes advantage of the much cheaper remittances available to crypto users (TradFi money transfer comes with high fees). The Philippines has a thriving play-to-earn (P2E) gaming ecosystem.

Brunei, Bahrain, and Oman are high-income countries with strong banking sectors and little interest in alternative or speculative assets. In Afghanistan, the Taliban has declared cryptocurrency "haram," or morally off-limits.

🟠 I N T E L R U N N E R 🔷

🇺🇸🇬🇧🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMIs for the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and the European Union...

📉 INTELRUNNER 📉

🇺🇸 It's a three-year high in the Bloomberg Commodities Index (AW1!) futures.

It's +14.25% year over year, including +11.9% since the close on August 19th.

More on commodities today...

✅ I N T E L R U N N E R ✅

🇺🇸 Henry Hub is up 89% in 99 days. So what's going on with natural gas?

While it's one of the most weather-sensitive trades out there, there's more going on than simply the advent of winter:

1️⃣ Record LNG Exports – America shipped an all-time high 10mmt. We're going to have to start buying Russian gas to compensate for Europe sucking ours down. (Don't you feel more secure now that Europe can't buy from Russia?) This is costing America's domestic market 14-15 Bcf/day.

2️⃣ Limited Tanker Availability – Spot LNG charter rates have hit a two-year high of $130,750/day.

3️⃣ Output Dipped - Lower 48 dry gas production is down 0.6 Bcf/day despite a higher rig count.

4️⃣ Speculation - Managed money longs have doubled since October as momentum funds chase the trend.

5️⃣ Weather - Yes, it's winter as expected, but early December HDD forecasts are elevated for the Midwest & Northeast. This is well-anticipated and certainly fully priced in.

⛽️ I N T E L R U N N E R ⛽️

🇺🇸 The Global X Copper Miners ETF is up 104.2% since Liberation Day.

Last Friday $COPX broke out of a descending channel/bull flag type structure. On Saturday we discussed the 27% rise in copper prices this year.

📈 I N T E L R U N N E R 📈

💲 Bitcoin went for quite a run today. From 5:30AM-2:30PM EST, $BTC put on a little over 6%. In the hour since, it's given back about 1.5%.

So liquidity must be looking up...

What a clean five wave formation, by the way.

📊 I N T E L R U N N E R 📊

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇰🇷 Chatbot Accuracy by Model & Rates of Errors

Recent tests by the European Broadcasting Union found that artificial intelligence assistants misrepresented news content in 45% of evaluated cases across languages and regions, highlighting persistent concerns about accuracy as Al adoption grows.

Two concepts are measured here: (1) accuracy, or the rate at which responses were factually correct and (2) hallucination, or the proportion of responses a model gets wrong because it made them up:

Accuracy remains limited. Gemini 3 Preview (High) leads at 54%, followed by Claude Opus 4.5 at 43% and Grok 4 at 40%. Gemini 2.5 Pro reaches 37%, GPT-5.1 (High) 35%, and Claude 4.5 Sonnet 31%. Most other models fall into the twenties or teens, showing that higher accuracy does not automatically prevent frequent errors.

Hallucination rates vary widely. Claude 4.5 Haiku reports the lowest rate at 26%, followed by Claude 4.5 Sonnet at 48% and GPT-5.1 (High) at 51%. Claude Opus 4.5 reaches 58%...Grok 4 records 64%, Kimi K2 0905 69%, and Grok 4.1 Fast 72%. Kimi K2 Thinking reaches 74%, and Llama Nemotron Super 49B v1.5 76%.

DeepSeek models are among the least reliable. V3.2 Ex records 81%, R1 0528 83%, and EXAONE 4.032B 86%. Llama 4 Maverick posts 87.58%, while multiple Gemini variants exceed 87%. GLM-4.6 and gpt-oss-20B (High) top the chart above 93%.

This is why ChatGPT (OpenAI) and Claude (Anthropic) are doing well. The latter especially is making inroads into the commercial sector because of the high value placed on both of these two accuracy metrics.

It makes no difference what extra mile your model can pull off if it's inventing things when it should be uncertain. Grok 4 was the most accurate until fairly recently, but are companies going to switch to the probable new leader in accuracy, Gemini 3, when it hallucinates 88% of the time?

Related: AI Safety Rankings

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