INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ States with the highest and lowest shares of their populations receiving SNAP benefits (food stamps).
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Most Affordable Grocery Stores for Thanksgiving Dinner

The 19 grocery stores are evaluated on the cost of acquiring sufficient goods to serve 6-8 people Thanksgiving dinner.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The prediction market regarding Trump releasing โ€œanyโ€ documents related to Epstein this year is up to 58%

Feels like easy money. Theyโ€™ll release something.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Alright, we're back in the prediction markets. This one is guessing who will be named in the new Epstein Files release.

Let's write down everyone with a greater than 25% chance, which means recording the top ten:

1๏ธโƒฃ0๏ธโƒฃ Joe Biden (26%)
9๏ธโƒฃ Henry Kissinger (28%)
8๏ธโƒฃ Michael Jackson (33%)
7๏ธโƒฃ Jamie Dimon (34%)
6๏ธโƒฃ Stephen Hawking (37%)
5๏ธโƒฃ Alex Baldwin (39%)
4๏ธโƒฃ Tony Blair (40%)

Oof, timeout. MJ? Have you guys learned nothing yet? Hawking is quite probably in there somewhere given he attended Epstein's 2006 theoretical physics conference on his private island and he's in the black book. He's also photographed hanging out with Lawrence Krause while there (because of course Krause was there).

I kind of suspect Kissinger & Dimon aren't that stupid (and probably knew more than they'd admit today). Either of them could easily be caught up in the wrong place at the wrong time with him given their relevance, and either could be secret perverts. I sort of doubt there wasn't already copious blackmail on Biden by the time Epstein was in action, but regardless, he was (allegedly) President so his name could easily appear. We'll see.

Baldwin & Blair? Yeah, I could see Baldwin & Blair. Baldwin is prolific in his sexual harassment career and he & the White House are not exactly on friendly terms. Blair is a creepy fuck. He's in the book and Clinton pushed for him to meet Epstein in 2002 at Downing Street, but besides that he's a creepy fuck. I could see a redaction here though. That's what active investigations are made for.

3๏ธโƒฃ David Copperfield (54%)
2๏ธโƒฃ Ehud Barak (59%)
1๏ธโƒฃ David Koch (66%)

Ehud Barak is the brutal Israeli PM that Virginia Giuffre has accused. We know he was tight with Epstein. They founded a company together, Barak was photographed going to his house many times, and he's in the emails we already have. Barak was seemingly managing this operation. It definitely involves the CIA, Mossad, and MI6 (and DGSE) and to the extent they're blackmailing politicians, it seems to have been largely targeted at the Democratic Party here in America, the (now crippled) Labor Party in Israel, and the (soon to be crippled) Labour Party in the UK.

David Copperfield is an interesting one. It's a good bet. We don't have any hard allegations regarding him & Epstein. We do know he gave him a lot of tickets to the Vegas show over the years and he was at the Palm Beach house twice. We also know over a dozen women have accused Copperfield of sexual misconduct spanning decades. So...it's a good bet. Naturally his lawyers insist they were mere acquaintances, but several victims have expressed doubt about the notion that he was clueless.

And finally, at #1, we have David Koch, the corpse Koch. His brother Charles is still kicking. Neither of them were big fans of President Trump. They've utilized an alliance of mutual interest in both terms, but both winning election seasons featured the Koch network funding Trump's rivals then sitting out the presidential after he won. Both winning seasons also featured insults from Trump toward the brothers, their company Koch Industries, and their "bad ideas."

This is actually a pretty smart call by the Polymarket crowd. There have no allegations whatsoever, but Koch does appear in the black book twice (both his NYC & Palm Beach contacts). That's not all that weird. They both lived in the same two places and mingled in the same philanthropic scenes. But to be abundantly clear: the name just has to appear in the filesโ€”that's the extent of the bet.

Koch makes sense because he loomed very large in American politics (and his family still does). So large that even amid the feud with Trump, he still ends up influencing Trump's policy on regulation & taxes (and even meeting with him once at Mar-o-Lago in 2017 with brother Bill Koch). And given the feud which flared up again in May (over the tariffs) is still simmering, the Kochs might have to threaten to sit out the midterms to get a redaction.

Can you forgive someone for funding Nikki Haley?

๐Ÿ”ฎ INTELRUNNER ๐Ÿ”ฎ
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๐ŸŒ Global Lending: Loan Demand Surges

Well, that's something bullish...

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ About 1 in 3 American women over the age of 60 is on psychiatric medications.
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ The "Gender Gap" in Europe

It's not a real thing.

Stop being retarded.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Why are stocks falling? Depreciation in excess of profit.

BCA Chief Global Strategist & Director of Research, Peter Berezin:

Because if you take the numbers in this chart seriously, the hyperscalers will hold at least $2.5 trillion in AI assets by the end of this decade. Assuming a depreciation rate of 20%, that would generate $500 billion in annual depreciation expense. This is more than their combined profits for 2025.


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๐ŸŒŽ The Worldโ€™s Fastest Shrinking Countries โ€” the 4 most negative population growth rates for 2024:
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Population Growth in Major North American Cities (2005-2024)

โ€ข Detroit (-2%) was the only major city to shed population; they're down about 100,000.

โ€ข Charlotte (+93%) grew the most on a relative basis. They gained at least 1.4 million people.

โ€ข Houston (+50%) and Dallas (+43%) grew the most in absolute terms. They added 2.6 million and 2.5 million people respectively.

โ€ข The strongest migration is southward. Southern cities drastically outperformed northern cities in this respect. There's also something of a Western shift, exempting California. Vancouver (+43%) added almost a million.

๐Ÿ“ˆ INTELRUNNER ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The S&P 500 is down 5% from its intraday highs and it's taken out some significant technical support.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The S&P 500 is down 5.4% again. The cash index made a two-month low, but the futures market hasn't quite eclipsed the October low yet.

$SPY has also punched through the 50-day moving average and the daily Ichimoku cloud.

The primary American index opened the day by gapping up to the VWAP started on the October 29th intraday high. From there, it shed 3% straight back to the range lows...

I guess all of those signals we covered meant something.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ This is a definitionally "unhealthy bull market." With each new all-time high, the number of stocks within the S&P 500 that are above their 50-day moving average declines.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Signals! What signals?!

โ€ข October 29 - NDX was up 15% vs. the Dotcom peak (adjusted for inflation).

โ€ข October 29 - NDX runs into the upper bound of the channel (running back to May).

โ€ข October 29 - SPX tests 1929-2001 trend line.

โ€ข November 1 - A definitionally unhealthy bull market.

โ€ข November 1 - RSP dead in the water on the year (indicating breath issues).

โ€ข November 6 - 5-Day Cumulative of 1 Month New Highsโ€“New Lows.

โ€ข November 6 - MAGS crushing RSP (suggesting breadth problems).

โ€ข November 9 - More new lows than highs in the SPX.

โ€ข November 9 - The Titanic signal goes off for SPX.

โ€ข November 10 - The Titanic signal goes off for NDX.

โ€ข November 10 - The Hindenburg Omen triggers for the NDX (even though the Omen is for the NYSE specifically).

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๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง UK Industrial Trends โ€“ Net Balance

The survey of the industrial sector by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) shows ongoing weakness for orders and export orders as stocks build slightly more aggressively. The build out in stocks when orders and expectations for volume are falling is not a good sign and suggests that the inventory buildup may be involuntary and that may be setting the stage for weaker economic performance ahead.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Count of OpenStreetMap Automatic License Plate Reader Surveillance Elements every 10 Miles in the Continental US

You remember voting for this?

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The U.S. Freeway System

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๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Government debt (lhs, % of GDP), serving costs thereof (rhs, %), and the rate of inflation (rhs, %) in two of the worldโ€™s most prominent developed economies, Japan & Germany.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japanese debt rises in yield, causing the yen carry trade to unwind & exacerbating the decline in risk assets.

People traditionally borrow more cheaply in yen when it's weak & stable to trade in assets that are dollar- or otherwise denominated. When the yen stops being so weak, it forces selling within this trade.

Historically, a 10% rally in the yen tends to knock the S&P 500 down 2-3% and Bitcoin down 15%.

There's far more to what's going on, but this never helps...

๐Ÿ’ฑ INTELRUNNER ๐Ÿ’ฑ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 53 Years of Wal-Mart ($WMT) vs. Target ($TGT).
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Target ($TGT) is down 67% off its all-time high and still falling.

In what is a relatively common mistake, Target's evil leadership presumed the "New Normal" of 2021 was actually the new normal. Not unlike the automakers with lots full of unsold electric vehicles, they bet on a new political reality surviving long-term because their favorite globalists said so.

Alas, what they got instead was a (not) prompt (enough) return to the old normal in about a year. Except this version of the old normal includes balance sheets with a total economic shutdown on them and a money supply that had to be expanded by 25% to pay for all the sacrificed productivity.

The result was serious inflation and economic stagnation, and in turn, the consumer got picky. No longer did they feel like being ripped off by Target, and they were mostly spending on essentials, which are not the high-margin items Target prefers to sell. Their typical middle-class customer base is now much more concerned with high interest rates, low savings, and the resumption of student loan payments.

Target still hasn't given up on its cap ex expansion from the New Normal, and I haven't even mentioned the beating they've taken for their psychopathic and near-relentless support for homosexuality in children.

Do you understand why these multinational corporations hate competition and pursue concepts like corporate welfare and an imported slave class?

Because they're bad at their jobs. And if the last 30 years of American economic policy wasn't 100% oriented toward never again having a recession and bailing anyone and everyone out, then we wouldn't have so many failure companies sucking up resources suboptimally for eternity. Companies that were once high quality lose all of the talent that put them there, develop counterproductive administrations, and ruin their products and services. It's doubly bad when it goes political.

Target has two or three years to figure out how to cut prices & improve service or Wal-Mart, Amazon, and Dollar Tree are going to continue consuming Target's market share. Twenty-first century retail is a dog-eat-dog world.

๐Ÿ“‰ INTELRUNNER ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐ŸŒ The World's Most Powerful Rivers

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Beyond Meat ($BYND), the purveyors of the freaky plant-based pseudo-meat, opened $46 on May 2nd, 2019 & rose 411% in just shy of 3 months, closing at $234.90 on July 26th.

Since then it has fallen 98.9% to $2.53/shareโ€ฆ
๐ŸŒ The World's Greatest Meat Eaters (Per Capita)

5๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ทArgentina (113 kilograms)
3๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡จSt. Vincent & the Grenadines (123 kilograms)
3๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUnited States of America (123 kilograms)
2๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณMongolia (132 kilograms)

๐Ÿ‘‘ ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ดTonga (148 kilograms)

Honorable Mention:
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong (123kg, but not a country)

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Target Rate Probabilities for 17 September 2025 Fed Meeting ๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Target Rate Probabilities for the December 10th, 2025 Meeting of the Federal Reserve.

The market expects a quarter point cut in 2.5 weeks.

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Alright, we're back in the prediction markets. This one is guessing who will be named in the new Epstein Files release.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ MTG surged to 5% in the biggest prediction market for the 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination.

That's third most likely, after JD Vance (55%) and Marco Rubio ๐Ÿคฎ(8%)...

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ INTELRUNNER ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
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