🇺🇸 The 5-Day Cumulative of 1 Month New Highs–New Lows

We're seeing more new lows than new highs still.

There's been some strength outside the megacaps (for example, in small cap tech), but overall it's pretty rough...

📈 CHART WATCH 📉

🇺🇸 Fiserv, Inc. is having a bad go of it...

A week before yesterday, $FI collapsed 44.04% in one day as earnings came in 60 cents (23%) short.

From there it's shed another 9.5% or so since. This caps off a 73.5% total drawdown since the beginning of March.

🕯 CHART WATCH 🕯

🇺🇸 Evidence of a heinous linguistic development I've been noticing for some time.

It's pop. Everyone who says "soda" is square.

Are people really saying "soda" in Chicago and Green Bay? Have you no shame whatsoever?

🥤🥤 CHART WATCH 🥤🥤

🇺🇸 Well...that's not the best thing.

Appears we have a bit of a cash shortage on our hands.

This could go several ways.

⚠️ CHART WATCH ⚠️

🇺🇸 The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) is getting smoked by the Mag 7 ($MAGS) in recent days.

Not a huge surprise given the breadth struggles of late.

🌐 CHART WATCH 🌐

🇺🇸 The average family health insurance premium marches onward and upward at all times.

And yes, it's always faster than inflation...

According to the CPI (which is undoubtedly understated, but not to this degree), inflation between 1999 & now was around 80%. The average family premium is up 365% over the same period, or 4.5X.

💊 CHART WATCH 💊

🇺🇸 On average, stocks are taking a -5% hit when they miss on earnings this season.

That's a little shy of double the 5-year average of -2.6%. Many companies earned modest beats in Q3, amplifying the significance of every miss.

And it remains true that positive news tends to be priced in ahead of time; negative news is more likely to surprise & produce volatility.

And right now, many of these stocks are priced for a perfect run. No surprise some are falling short.

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🇺🇸 That's the sort of contraction in non-farm payrolls that's a net positive.

The public sector is choking the private sector. It is simply required that it be smaller.

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🇺🇸 The Longest Government Shutdown (Funding Gap) in American History

We're up to 38 days of fun & excitement.

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🌎 The money supply in advanced economies has grown to $74.3 trillion by the end of Q3 2025.

The compound annual growth rate over the last quarter century less one quarter stands at 4.9%. The long-term trend is intact despite the (wildly irresponsible) 25% swell between February 2020 & February 2022.

Advanced Economies: Australia, Canada, Czechia, Denmark, Euro Area, Hong Kong, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Macao, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, UK, and the United States of America

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 More new lows than new highs in the S&P 500 these days.

Might be a warning sign...

📉 CHART WATCH ↗️

🇺🇸 We're going to cover a lot about new highs and lows with the rest of today. We've had a lot of talk about the Titanic signals firing—what's that mean?

The Titanic signal is triggered when a major index is at or near new highs, but the number of stocks making new 52-week lows exceeds those making new 52-week highs.

One of these recently triggered for the S&P 500. What other times in history did the Titanic signal go off for $SPX?

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 Now the Titanic signal (or, apparently, Syndrome) in the Nasdaq 100...

The Titanic signal is triggered when a major index is at or near new highs, but the number of stocks making new 52-week lows exceeds those making new 52-week highs.

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 There's also been a lot of attention paid to something called the Hindenburg Omen, which is not intended to be applied to anything other than the NYSE, but people insist on using it with all indices. Here are the rules:

1️⃣ A large number of stocks hit new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows simultaneously.
2️⃣ The number of new highs and new lows must both be greater than a certain threshold (often 2.2% of all issues traded).
3️⃣ The NYSE index is above its value from 50 days ago (i.e., the market is not in a long-term downtrend).
4️⃣ The McClellan Oscillator is negative (indicating market breadth is weakening).
5️⃣ New highs cannot be more than twice the new lows (to avoid false positives in strong bull markets).

This chart looks at simultaneous triggering of the Hindenburg Omen and the Titanic signal in the NASDAQ 100 in history.

📉 CHART WATCH 📉

🇰🇷 🇨🇩 Once upon a time, South Korea had a higher fertility rate than the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Now, they are in deep shit, to borrow an academic term.

Side Note: Both of these countries put a lot of effort into their flags. That's good to see.

🍼 CHART WATCH 🍼

🌎 The Returns Leaderboard for the week ending in November 7th:

🥉 Gold 💎 (+0.4%)

🥈 Japanese Yen 🇯🇵 (+0.6%)

🥇 American REITs 🇺🇸 (+1.5%)

🔽 Bitcoin 💰 (-5.7%), The Magnificent 7 🇺🇸 (-3.3%), The NASDAQ 100 🇺🇸 (-3.0%)

🔼 CHART WATCH 🔽

🇺🇸 "ICE Removals" Under Trump

Obviously it's nothing.

Excluded? What? You're even counting that?

#Remigration now.

🔺️ INTELRUNNER 🔺️

🌎 The Most Prompted Artists for AI Videos & Images

Makes sense. He really did great work...

3️⃣ Norman Rockwell

2️⃣ Leonardo Da Vinci

1️⃣ Rembrandt

The ranking was created by building a "seed list of keywords across eight different categories of prompt style (e.g., artist names) and subject (e.g., media franchises) using the Midlibrary database and manual research."

Then the researchers "recorded the number of Al video and image prompts containing these keywords."

🖼 CHART WATCH 🖼

🇺🇸 Trump wants 600,000 children of wealthy CCP functionaries to be students at top institutions in order to bail out the broken, misaligned university system (that he was supposed to fix).

MAGA apparatchiks rushed to his defense, citing silly post-pandemic, post-migration numbers about educational ability. Here's one example by way of utter clown Bill Mitchell:

"Folks may want not want to hear that, but our education system has gotten so bad that we just don't have as much elite educated talent as we need, especially in technology. It's just a fact."

In 2019, a study by Loyalka, Liu, Li, et al found that STEM student "seniors in the United States substantially outperform seniors in China, India, and Russia by 0.76-0.88 SDs and score comparably with seniors in elite institutions in these countries." You don't say?

An update study focused on computer science & electrical engineering in 2021 conducted by a similar crew of authors concluded that there were "stark differences in skill levels and gains among countries and by institutional selectivity. Compared with the United States, students in China, India and Russia do not gain critical thinking skills over four years."

It's a bunch of nonsense designed to exclude native Americans, and I won't countenance any other conclusion. It's Howard Lutnick's speciality: making America great again by replacing Americans.

Hey, wait! Wasn't that also Biden's policy?

📊 INTELRUNNER 📊