INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 With GDP on fire, new tariffs flying, and inflation measures seemingly bottoming around 3% (on the heels of a resumption in the Fed’s cutting cycle), we should likely be wary of both a short-term correction in markets (Bitcoin leading again here) and, moreover…

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Truflation surges to 2.7%.

This is likely the long-awaited tariff bump that the financial press has so eagerly awaited.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 v. 🌍 Foreign stocks are once again failing to break out against American stocks.

Every single one of those rejections off that trend line came with much fanfare about the end of the American era (largely out of Europe and European-owned media).

This time, though, there is some merit to the case. Without the Mag 7's dominance, that trend line would be broken. It's just the sheer power of the consolidated AI bubble holding them down.

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INTELRUNNER

This is the nonfinancial market capitalization divided by the nonfinancial corporate gross-value added including estimated foreign revenues…

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The Buffett Indicator continues to set new all-time highs; this reading is a whopping 223%.

That's right: two hundred & twenty-three percent!

That's up from 209% at the beginning of July. The indicator is calculated by taking the ratio of the total market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 to the gross domestic product.

For more:
• Hussman Strategic Advisors upgraded version [8/30]
• Berkshire Hathaway's mounting cash pile [11/2]

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INTELRUNNER

🪙 Bitcoin's Cost-Basis Distribution Heat Map Over the weekend, Bitcoin staged a short-lived recovery after briefly dipping to the lower boundary of the top-buyers’ supply cluster, spanning $107K–$118K. According to the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, the…

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Second worst day of the year for Bitcoin...

Last Month of Watching BTC:
• Fear Returns to the Fear & Greed Index [Today]
• Spot Trading Volume by Exchange [11/1]
• Bitcoin's Cost-Basis Distribution Heat Map [10/30]
• Realized Cap: New Whales vs. Old Whales [10/15]
• Whale Selling Pressure Eases [10/7]

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INTELRUNNER

🌐 $TOTAL3, which is the total cryptocurrency market capitalization with the caps for Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) subtracted, is breaking out of horizontal resistance. If it can hold $1.13T, then it's all price discovery from there... 💫 CHART WATCH…

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$TOTAL3 (the total cryptocurrency market capitalization with the caps for Bitcoin ($BTC) & Ethereum ($ETH) subtracted) has returned to the ascending dynamic support line.

It did make it above the key horizontal resistance to set a number of all-time highs for two periods of a few days (the time of the last post about this) and then again for another week, but it was ultimately pulled down along with $BTC, slipping into a 23% drawdown.

It's currently at $920 billion, about 4.5% above support and around 5% below the 200-day moving average.

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INTELRUNNER

🪙 Second worst day of the year for Bitcoin...

🪙 Bitcoin has lost the two-year bull market trend line.

This was to be expected as its momentum had topped back in early 2024.

What's next for $BTC?

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 New York City Mayoral Prediction Markets

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Zohran Mamdani wins the New York City mayoral contest over Andrew Cuomo by a count of 50.4% to 41.6%.

That's a majority—that's a big deal. Mamdani claimed 4 of 5 boroughs, dropping only Staten Island where Cuomo won by 33 points.

It appears it would not have mattered if Sliwa had dropped out, as Mamdani's total exceeds Sliwa & Cuomo combined.

News from Underground Coverage
• You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 1, June 26th
• You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 2, October 25th

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 64% of Kalshi traders expect the Supreme Court to rule against Trump's tariffs. It has ranged between 61 and 67 percent this week. I expect them to allow him a few exceptions here and there where they'll say he applied the appropriately, but for the most…

🇺🇸 The prediction markets for whether or not the Supreme Court will uphold President Trump's tariffs are experiencing a lot of volatility as oral arguments proceed.

Both Kalshi & Polymarket are down around 20% as it stands, but they've both recently been as high as 53%.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Zohran Mamdani wins the New York City mayoral contest over Andrew Cuomo by a count of 50.4% to 41.6%.

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How the different religions voted in the New York Mayoral...

"Other" and atheism for Mamdani.

The difference between Protestant and Catholic is about 11 points of (or double the) support for Sliwa at the expense of Mamdani.

And, of course, the Jewish vote, which will be the big story out of this chart. They were only able to corral 60% for Cuomo, and 31% went for Mamdani.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 This is a definitionally "unhealthy bull market." With each new all-time high, the number of stocks within the S&P 500 that are above their 50-day moving average declines.

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The 5-Day Cumulative of 1 Month New Highs–New Lows

We're seeing more new lows than new highs still.

There's been some strength outside the megacaps (for example, in small cap tech), but overall it's pretty rough...

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INTELRUNNER

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Fiserv, Inc. is having a bad go of it...

A week before yesterday, $FI collapsed 44.04% in one day as earnings came in 60 cents (23%) short.

From there it's shed another 9.5% or so since. This caps off a 73.5% total drawdown since the beginning of March.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The share of US adults who drink alcohol is at its lowest since 1939…

🇺🇸 Evidence of a heinous linguistic development I've been noticing for some time.

It's pop. Everyone who says "soda" is square.

Are people really saying "soda" in Chicago and Green Bay? Have you no shame whatsoever?

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 Well...that's not the best thing.

Appears we have a bit of a cash shortage on our hands.

This could go several ways.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) has essentially gone nowhere over the past year. All the action is occurring in the megacaps & the AI bubble. I'm really trying to drive this home: breadth is not going well. 🌐 CHART WATCH 🌐

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The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) is getting smoked by the Mag 7 ($MAGS) in recent days.

Not a huge surprise given the breadth struggles of late.

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INTELRUNNER

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The average family health insurance premium marches onward and upward at all times.

And yes, it's always faster than inflation...

According to the CPI (which is undoubtedly understated, but not to this degree), inflation between 1999 & now was around 80%. The average family premium is up 365% over the same period, or 4.5X.

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INTELRUNNER

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On average, stocks are taking a -5% hit when they miss on earnings this season.

That's a little shy of double the 5-year average of -2.6%. Many companies earned modest beats in Q3, amplifying the significance of every miss.

And it remains true that positive news tends to be priced in ahead of time; negative news is more likely to surprise & produce volatility.

And right now, many of these stocks are priced for a perfect run. No surprise some are falling short.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The growth in American jobs has been woefully dependent on additions to the Health Care and Social Assistance sector.

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That's the sort of contraction in non-farm payrolls that's a net positive.

The public sector is choking the private sector. It is simply required that it be smaller.

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INTELRUNNER

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The Longest Government Shutdown (Funding Gap) in American History

We're up to 38 days of fun & excitement.

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 1-Year Percent Change in the M2 Money Supply 📈 CHART WATCH 📈

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The money supply in advanced economies has grown to $74.3 trillion by the end of Q3 2025.

The compound annual growth rate over the last quarter century less one quarter stands at 4.9%. The long-term trend is intact despite the (wildly irresponsible) 25% swell between February 2020 & February 2022.

Advanced Economies: Australia, Canada, Czechia, Denmark, Euro Area, Hong Kong, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Macao, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, UK, and the United States of America

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INTELRUNNER

🇺🇸 The 5-Day Cumulative of 1 Month New Highs–New Lows We're seeing more new lows than new highs still. There's been some strength outside the megacaps (for example, in small cap tech), but overall it's pretty rough... 📈 CHART WATCH 📉

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More new lows than new highs in the S&P 500 these days.

Might be a warning sign...

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