INTELRUNNER
@intelrunner
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally 🇺🇸 but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
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INTELRUNNER
INTELRUNNER
🇺🇸 You think it would be fair to say online gambling saved the NFL?
🇺🇸 Who will be the 2025 NFL Champion? Kalshi's prediction market points to the Chiefs.

Kansas City Chiefs 18%
Detroit Lions 12%
Buffalo Bills 11%
Green Bay Packers 10%
Philadelphia Eagles 10%
Indianapolis Colts 8%

🏈 CHART WATCH 🏈
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🇺🇸 In America, the younger you are, the more likely you are to believe in political violence.
🇺🇸 America's Wealth by Generation

This is something else. They'll point to compounding and that's a multiplier, but in reality, it's more the fact that Boomers did two key things: (1) they bought assets in an era of gratuitous public spending and thus immense inflation and (2) they demanded the government borrow from the future to prevent a real recession in their lifetimes.

What's the result? The Silent Generation's depleted pensions still carry more weight than the sum of Millennial wealth.

📊 CHART WATCH 📊
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Restaurant demand keeps bleeding. Chart Watch
🇺🇸 Restaurant stocks are taking a beating in 2025...

🍽 CHART WATCH 🍽
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🇺🇸 Restaurant stocks are taking a beating in 2025... 🍽 CHART WATCH 🍽
🇺🇸 Accordingly, the Restaurant ETF is approaching its Liberation Day lows.

$EATZ has suffered a 20% drawdown from its all-time high in July.

🍽 CHART WATCH 🍽
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🇺🇸 Action in the indices today...

The Nasdaq led. The S&P was also positive. The Russell lost a third of a point; the Dow lost almost half of one.

📈 CHART WATCH 📈
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🇺🇸 The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) has essentially gone nowhere over the past year. All the action is occurring in the megacaps & the AI bubble. I'm really trying to drive this home: breadth is not going well. 🌐 CHART WATCH 🌐
🇺🇸 The S&P 500 ($SPY) is up about 14.6% this year. A lot of that upside has been in the technology sector ($XLK) is up 26.62%, and the Mag 7 ($MAGS) are up 25.56% YTD.

The S&P 500 Excluding Technology ($SPXT) is only up 9.88%, and excluding the Mag 7, the S&P 493 is up 12.10% on the year.

🌐 CHART WATCH 🌐
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🌎 Trick-or-Treat Around the World: origin of traditions around the world where children go door to door for treats

🍭 CHART WATCH 🍭
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🌎 Trick-or-Treat Around the World: origin of traditions around the world where children go door to door for treats 🍭 CHART WATCH 🍭
🌎 Countries That Celebrate Halloween

🎃 CHART WATCH 🎃
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🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Container ship departures from China to the US are down significantly since June. 🚤 CHART WATCH 🚤
🇬🇷🇨🇳🇯🇵 Three Nations Control the Global Fleet

Greece, China and Japan command the global fleet, holding over 40% of the world's shipping
capacity.

⚓️ CHART WATCH ⚓️
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🌎 Countries That Celebrate Halloween 🎃 CHART WATCH 🎃
🇺🇸 Halloween Inflation

Adjusted for inflation, Halloween costs as much as ever. Nominally, a new record of $13 billion was set in 2025. In reality, this $8.7 billion in 2009 dollars—on par with 2023's $12 billion spent.

👻 CHART WATCH 👻
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🌎 The Past Year of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index

The F&G Index is strongly indicating fear as it extends into the spring time lows, down near 20.

This comes as Bitcoin is down almost 17% since its last all-time high 28 days ago...

🤑 CHART WATCH 🤑
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🇺🇸 With GDP on fire, new tariffs flying, and inflation measures seemingly bottoming around 3% (on the heels of a resumption in the Fed’s cutting cycle), we should likely be wary of both a short-term correction in markets (Bitcoin leading again here) and, moreover…
🇺🇸 Truflation surges to 2.7%.

This is likely the long-awaited tariff bump that the financial press has so eagerly awaited.

📈 CHART WATCH 📈
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🇺🇸 v. 🌍 Foreign stocks are once again failing to break out against American stocks.

Every single one of those rejections off that trend line came with much fanfare about the end of the American era (largely out of Europe and European-owned media).

This time, though, there is some merit to the case. Without the Mag 7's dominance, that trend line would be broken. It's just the sheer power of the consolidated AI bubble holding them down.

📉 CHART WATCH 📉
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This is the nonfinancial market capitalization divided by the nonfinancial corporate gross-value added including estimated foreign revenues…
🇺🇸 The Buffett Indicator continues to set new all-time highs; this reading is a whopping 223%.

That's right: two hundred & twenty-three percent!

That's up from 209% at the beginning of July. The indicator is calculated by taking the ratio of the total market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 to the gross domestic product.

For more:
• Hussman Strategic Advisors upgraded version [8/30]
• Berkshire Hathaway's mounting cash pile [11/2]

🚨 CHART WATCH 🚨
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🪙 Bitcoin's Cost-Basis Distribution Heat Map Over the weekend, Bitcoin staged a short-lived recovery after briefly dipping to the lower boundary of the top-buyers’ supply cluster, spanning $107K–$118K. According to the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, the…
🪙 Second worst day of the year for Bitcoin...

Last Month of Watching BTC:
• Fear Returns to the Fear & Greed Index [Today]
• Spot Trading Volume by Exchange [11/1]
• Bitcoin's Cost-Basis Distribution Heat Map [10/30]
• Realized Cap: New Whales vs. Old Whales [10/15]
• Whale Selling Pressure Eases [10/7]

📉 CHART WATCH 📉
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🌐 $TOTAL3, which is the total cryptocurrency market capitalization with the caps for Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) subtracted, is breaking out of horizontal resistance. If it can hold $1.13T, then it's all price discovery from there... 💫 CHART WATCH…
🌐 $TOTAL3 (the total cryptocurrency market capitalization with the caps for Bitcoin ($BTC) & Ethereum ($ETH) subtracted) has returned to the ascending dynamic support line.

It did make it above the key horizontal resistance to set a number of all-time highs for two periods of a few days (the time of the last post about this) and then again for another week, but it was ultimately pulled down along with $BTC, slipping into a 23% drawdown.

It's currently at $920 billion, about 4.5% above support and around 5% below the 200-day moving average.

💫 CHART WATCH 🪑
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🪙 Second worst day of the year for Bitcoin...
🪙 Bitcoin has lost the two-year bull market trend line.

This was to be expected as its momentum had topped back in early 2024.

What's next for $BTC?

📉 CHART WATCH 📉
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🇺🇸 New York City Mayoral Prediction Markets
🇺🇸 Zohran Mamdani wins the New York City mayoral contest over Andrew Cuomo by a count of 50.4% to 41.6%.

That's a majority—that's a big deal. Mamdani claimed 4 of 5 boroughs, dropping only Staten Island where Cuomo won by 33 points.

It appears it would not have mattered if Sliwa had dropped out, as Mamdani's total exceeds Sliwa & Cuomo combined.

News from Underground Coverage
• You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 1, June 26th
• You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 2, October 25th

🗽 CHART WATCH 🗽
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🇺🇸 64% of Kalshi traders expect the Supreme Court to rule against Trump's tariffs. It has ranged between 61 and 67 percent this week. I expect them to allow him a few exceptions here and there where they'll say he applied the appropriately, but for the most…
🇺🇸 The prediction markets for whether or not the Supreme Court will uphold President Trump's tariffs are experiencing a lot of volatility as oral arguments proceed.

Both Kalshi & Polymarket are down around 20% as it stands, but they've both recently been as high as 53%.

📉 CHART WATCH 📈
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🇺🇸 Zohran Mamdani wins the New York City mayoral contest over Andrew Cuomo by a count of 50.4% to 41.6%.
🇺🇸 How the different religions voted in the New York Mayoral...

"Other" and atheism for Mamdani.

The difference between Protestant and Catholic is about 11 points of (or double the) support for Sliwa at the expense of Mamdani.

And, of course, the Jewish vote, which will be the big story out of this chart. They were only able to corral 60% for Cuomo, and 31% went for Mamdani.

✝️ CHART WATCH 🌙
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