🇺🇸 Amazon ($AMZN) jumps 10% in after hours trading due to better than expected earnings.

Almost all of the upside in the stock market occurs after hours. Or before hours. Something worth remembering...

📱 CHART WATCH 📱

🇺🇸 New York City Mayoral Prediction Markets

The results are fairly consistent across markets: Mamdani has an 88-90% chance of winning the mayoral election in NYC.

This will be accomplished on the strength of his 90%+ odds in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens. The Bronx is more of a toss-up; Staten Island is, of course, firmly Cuomo's territory.

This has never really been in doubt so long as the race stayed multiple choice, and Cuomo's campaign has done a lot to render a Sliwa dropout irrelevant (which was not the case two months ago).

It seems possible that Cuomo may not even match his own strength in the Democratic primary, which is remarkable.

News from Underground Coverage
• You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 1, June 26th
• You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 2, October 25th

🗽 CHART WATCH 🗽

🪙 Bitcoin's Cost-Basis Distribution Heat Map

Over the weekend, Bitcoin staged a short-lived recovery after briefly dipping to the lower boundary of the top-buyers’ supply cluster, spanning $107K–$118K. According to the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, the price rebounded from the midline near $116K before retracing to around $113K.

This structure closely mirrors the post-ATH bounce patterns observed in Q2–Q3 2024 and Q1 2025, where temporary rallies emerged as demand was quickly absorbed by overhead supply. In the current instance, renewed selling from long-term holders has further amplified resistance at this supply zone, highlighting how profit-taking at elevated levels continues to cap upward momentum.

📉 CHART WATCH 📉

🇺🇸 The AAA National Gasoline Average is at $3.03.

Gas prices have been lower over the entirety of Trump's second term thus far...

⛽️ CHART WATCH ⛽️

🇺🇸 Hurricane Melissa Predictions

🌪 CHART WATCH 🌪

🇺🇸 More bulls than bears again in the latest AAII spread.

Unfortunate...

🌐 CHART WATCH 🌐

🇺🇸 American banks are still sitting on $395 billion in unrealized losses.

Such are the dividends of 14 years of zero bound interest rates. Well, sort of. The dividends come when the medium-sized banks fail and get devoured, as we saw a bit of a few years back.

No worries. They changed the rules so they're just always worth face value. So that fixes that, right?

Right?

🆘 CHART WATCH 🆘

🇺🇸 The Qs breaking out against the Spoos again...

Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) vs. S&P 500 ($SPY) on the monthly.

🚀 CHART WATCH 🚀

💎 Gold experienced record outflows this week as 22.6 tonnes in net asset value fled.

After hitting all-time highs at almost $4,382/ounce on Monday, there was a 5% loss on Tuesday as traders took profits, followed by the Fed demurring about future cuts & then the announcement of an economic truce between Trump & Xi.

As a result, around $12.7 billion evaporated from gold funds. As of this posting, the spot market is trading at $4,003 and futures are lower at $3,997.

📉 CHART WATCH 📉

🔗 Aluminum is up 11.6% in almost 2 months and now fetches $2,875 per tonne—a level unseen since mid-2022. The price has broken out of horizontal resistance and is reaching the top of its channel.

This isn't incidental. Inventories in London are historically low, and there are disruptions in the bauxite ore & alumina powder supplies, particularly out of Australia & Guinea.

Simultaneously, green energy, emerging market development, and European remilitarization are significantly adding to demand. The elevated price of real energy is also limiting production (especially for Europe smelters, as you'd expect).

In America, 50% tariffs & the sanctions forcing Russian supply to China are not helping matters. In lieu of a recession or policy changes from one of these governments, upward price pressures may endure well into next year.

🕯 CHART WATCH 🕯

🇺🇸 This is a definitionally "unhealthy bull market." With each new all-time high, the number of stocks within the S&P 500 that are above their 50-day moving average declines.

80% were above their 50DMAs at the start of July. We're down to 40%. The number of stocks above their 200-day averages shows stagnant long-term breadth over the same period.

What you generally want to see is the opposite...

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

💰 Bitcoin's Spot Trading Volume (subdivided by exchange)

Binance still leads by a mile, but Gate.io has opened up a lot of share to move into second.

Generally speaking, it's positive to see spot volume experiencing this upswing.

🔶 CHART WATCH 🪙

🇺🇸 The empire strikes back...

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DX1!) is up 2.25% this month as it bounced on its 14-year support. This will disappoint many antagonists worldwide.

Such is life. As the Euro (which is 57.6% of the $DXY index) looks primed to take a tumble against the Dollar, this move has the potential to become a trend.

🪙 CHART WATCH 🪙

🇷🇺🇨🇳 Monthly Exports to Russia by Country

If not for China, this lunacy about collapsing Russia might've actually worked...

I have no earthly idea why Western leaders believed China would do anything else. They do understand China can hear them saying "Russia first, then isolated China," right?

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 The Goldman Sachs Housing Affordability Index remains quite low...

Why? Prices are up. Wages are stuck. Mortgage rates are elevated (except for most of the people holding them, who are therefore disinclined to move).

Thanks to insane zoning laws and even more insane housing regulation, we have a housing shortage. This is exacerbated by rising construction costs. And illegal immigration is aggravating the problem with limited supply and stagnant wages.

Something has to give.

🏠 CHART WATCH 🏠

🇺🇸 Mortgage Payments vs. Rent as a % of Household Income (1970-2025)

🏚 CHART WATCH 🏚

🇺🇸 Which states pay the most for electricity?

⚡️ CHART WATCH ⚡️

🇺🇸 The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ($RSP) has essentially gone nowhere over the past year.

All the action is occurring in the megacaps & the AI bubble.

I'm really trying to drive this home: breadth is not going well.

🌐 CHART WATCH 🌐

🇺🇸 These are the only counties that voted more Democratic in 2024 than in 2020, shaded by percent increase.

Can I just say Colorado and Utah are two of the sketchiest states in the Union?

🇺🇸 CHART WATCH 🇺🇸