INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
The implied odds of a resumption in discontinued government by then (shudder) stand at 80%.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Both parties are taking blame for the government shutdownβ€”specifically Trump & Schumer.

All of this over paying for all of the healthcare of illegal residents of America.

Are they just trying to buy 3 generations of votes again? Or do they know denying all of the benefits (over a third of them just collect those) will cause much of their antidemocratic project in social & political engineering to self-deport?

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ CHART WATCH πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Beef prices have continued their persistant ascent as the cattle cycle reaches another lower trough. We need a lot more heads. πŸ₯© CHART WATCH πŸ₯©
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Democratic Party made war on our meat industries during the entire Biden Administration.

So far, Trump has done little to help. There are even still nonsense regulations about methane in effect. But it's not restricted to climate; it's the same game as energy: drum up an environmental pretext and grind the industry to a halt through prohibitive cost.

As a result, beef prices are making new highs again...sure does seem to be happening all over the world too.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ CHART WATCH πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
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INTELRUNNER
Argentina prefers the United States (41%) and China is the runner-up (25%).
πŸ‡¦πŸ‡· Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza party won 40.7% in Sunday's election, securing stronger legislative representation with which to pursue Milei's program, and highlighting the wisdom of his opponents in holding their local elections ahead of these (to avoid a wider participation).

LA has increased its deputies from 37 to 101 and senators from 6 to 20. Bitter opponents who had no reservations about fraternizing with China to boost their electoral standing (including allowing the overfishing of Argentine waters) are complaining about Bessent's swap line.

Interestingly, lots of U.S. critics of D.C.'s asinine foreign policy are complaining, despite many of them insisting America should be competing with China as China competes, with handouts, development, and the like.

Very interesting...more Argentina content:
β€’ Milei's Argentina leads LatAm growth forecasts [8/19]
β€’ LatAm geopolitical loyalties [7/23]
β€’ The plummeting inflation rates [7/14]
β€’ The plummeting child poverty rates [7/14]
β€’ Argentina's inflation miracle [5/13]

πŸ—³ CHART WATCH πŸ—³
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ With the Hungarian mix out of the way (dominant nuclear, rising solar), let's look at the electricity inputs in Germany from 2022-2025 (YoY change ending each October before the cold season).
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί Natural gas is still four times more expensive in Europe than it is in America.

Such is life when you flip your cheap energy supplier the bird and have to rely on one of the following: (1) heavily demanded Middle Eastern sources, (2) super expensive American LNG, or (3) buying that same cheap Russian gas at a premium from Turkey.

What are they thinking? The financial pundits will call them stupid, but you aren't that naΓ―ve, are you?

πŸ‘©β€πŸ‘©β€πŸ‘¦β€πŸ‘¦ CHART WATCH πŸ‘©β€πŸ‘©β€πŸ‘¦β€πŸ‘¦
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Biotechnology ETF is up 35.5% since its low just after Liberation Day (same day, April 9th) and a golden cross on the daily seems imminent here as well.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Biotechnology ETF is up 15.67% against $SPY since this post. $XBI is up 23.51% generally over the period.

It broke out of its range a month ago and will likely continue outperforming for a bit as the healthcare sector swings into gear.

πŸ“ˆ CHART WATCH πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί The Euro area's PMIs. Services is looking alright; manufacturing seems to be in contraction.

I will never understand not putting a 50-line on a diffusion index...

🏭 CHART WATCH 🏭
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Google ($GOOGL) has slid to 48% of search ad revenue (hallelujah), falling from a 60% share as recently as 2018.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ It's the first time Alphabet Inc.'s average price target is under the price of $GOOGL in the last ten years...

πŸ” CHART WATCH πŸ”
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ If you take the M2 money supply as a proxy for inflation, the Nasdaq 100 is now 14.83% higher than the Dotcom peak.

πŸ“ˆ CHART WATCH πŸ“ˆ
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) is also smacking its head on the top of the channel it's been bound in since the post-Liberation Day pump.

πŸ“Š CHART WATCH πŸ“Š
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Taking a more long-term view, the S&P 500 is breaking through a bit of historical resistance.

In this case we speak of the dynamic resistance running from the 1929 Roaring Twenties peak to the 2001 Dotcom peak...

πŸ“Š CHART WATCH πŸ“Š
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 8% of Americans say they participated in a No Kings protest on October 18

Question: Did you participate in the No Kings protest on October 18? (% who say "yes")

By the way, it's YouGov, so as alwaysπŸ§‚.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ CHART WATCH πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ America's Richest & Poorest States vs G7 Countries
(GDP per capita)


Mississippi is hot on Germany's ass, and not far off Canada either.

πŸ’« CHART WATCH πŸ’«
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INTELRUNNER
As a result, beef prices are making new highs again.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Where Americans Spend the Most & Least on Groceries (By % of Income)

The lower & more pink the number, the more spent on groceries, and vice versa the higher & more yellow the number.

πŸ›‘Detroit households spend the largest share of their income on groceries, at nearly 4% of median monthly earnings.

πŸ›‘California cities dominate the list of places where groceries take up the smallest share of income.

πŸ›’ CHART WATCH πŸ›’
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INTELRUNNER
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Google ($GOOGL) has slid to 48% of search ad revenue (hallelujah), falling from a 60% share as recently as 2018. Amazon ($AMZN), as low as 10% in 2018, has risen to a 24% share today. Microsoft ($MSFT) is up a few percentage points over this period, reaching…
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Amazon ($AMZN) jumps 10% in after hours trading due to better than expected earnings.

Almost all of the upside in the stock market occurs after hours. Or before hours. Something worth remembering...

πŸ“± CHART WATCH πŸ“±
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INTELRUNNER
We’ve got fresh polling on the New York mayoral race, courtesy of Tulchin Research…
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ New York City Mayoral Prediction Markets

The results are fairly consistent across markets: Mamdani has an 88-90% chance of winning the mayoral election in NYC.

This will be accomplished on the strength of his 90%+ odds in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens. The Bronx is more of a toss-up; Staten Island is, of course, firmly Cuomo's territory.

This has never really been in doubt so long as the race stayed multiple choice, and Cuomo's campaign has done a lot to render a Sliwa dropout irrelevant (which was not the case two months ago).

It seems possible that Cuomo may not even match his own strength in the Democratic primary, which is remarkable.

News from Underground Coverage
β€’ You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 1, June 26th
β€’ You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 2, October 25th

πŸ—½ CHART WATCH πŸ—½
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INTELRUNNER
πŸͺ™ WHALE WARS: New Whales (Short-Term Holders) vs. Old Whales (Long-Term Holders)
πŸͺ™ Bitcoin's Cost-Basis Distribution Heat Map

Over the weekend, Bitcoin staged a short-lived recovery after briefly dipping to the lower boundary of the top-buyers’ supply cluster, spanning $107K–$118K. According to the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, the price rebounded from the midline near $116K before retracing to around $113K.

This structure closely mirrors the post-ATH bounce patterns observed in Q2–Q3 2024 and Q1 2025, where temporary rallies emerged as demand was quickly absorbed by overhead supply. In the current instance, renewed selling from long-term holders has further amplified resistance at this supply zone, highlighting how profit-taking at elevated levels continues to cap upward momentum.


πŸ“‰ CHART WATCH πŸ“‰
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